1 / 14

Nowcasting

Initial Claims vs. Google Trends. According to the NBER, the current recession started ... Monthly Sales vs. Google Trends at Second Week of each month ...

Kelvin_Ajay
Download Presentation

Nowcasting

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. European Banking & Financial Forum 2010, Mar 23 Nowcasting Using The Wisdom Of The Crowds To Avoid Panic, Hype and Data Lag Mohammad Gawdat Managing Director – Southern & Eastern Europe, Middle East & Africa Head Of Emerging Markets Council

  2. Three quick ideas

  3. Behaviour As A Driver Of Trends – Unemployment Example 1 A Leading Indicator For End Of A Recession

  4. Behaviour As A Driver Of Trends – Unemployment Example 1 Also a good predictor of personal finance distress Personal finance distress shows high correlation with initial claims. • Unemployment rate in US is highest since early 80s recession. • Risk measures in credit market increase along with unemployment rate. • Initial Claims is primary leading indicator in Labor market. • So unemployment data is useful in other setors as well...

  5. Behaviour As A Driver Of Trends – Unemployment Example • CareerBuilder • Kelly Services • Manpower • Temp Agencies • Robert Half • Spherion • Aerotek • Walmart jobs • Appleone • Social Security • Social Security Office Locations • Social Security Administration • Unemployment Benefits • Social Security Disability • Social Security Gov • Unemployment Office • Food Stamps • Department of Labor • Monster • Indeed • Jobs • Job Search • Resume • Job Search Engines • Linkedin • Hotjobs • Cover Letter 1 Search Behaviour Also Changes During A Recession Jobs Welfare & Unemployment Recruiting & Staffing

  6. Behaviour As A Driver Of Trends – Unemployment Example 1 ... And That Gets reflected In Google Trends Source: Internal data

  7. Behaviour As A Driver Of Trends – Unemployment Example 1 Initial Claims vs. Google Trends Recession Starts • According to the NBER, the current recession started December 2007. • National unemployment rate passed 5% in mid 2008 and search queries on [Welfare and Unemployment] increased at same time. Window For Long Term Model Window For Short Term Model Source: Internal data

  8. Nowcasting – Predicting The Present – Auto Sales Example 2 Nowcasting Competitive Performance Source: Internal data

  9. Nowcasting – Predicting The Present – Auto Sales Example 2 Auto Sales by Make (Top 9 Make by Sales) Monthly Sales vs. Google Trends at Second Week of each month • Source:Automotive News Data Center

  10. Nowcasting – Predicting The Present – Auto Sales Example 2 Actual vs. Fitted Sales (Top 9 Make by Sales) • Source:Automotive News Data Center

  11. Myth Or Reality – Automotive / Travel Examples 3 US Automakers vs. Consumer Preference Source: Internal data

  12. Myth Or Reality – Travel Examples 3 Are Germans Traveling Less? Source: Internal data

  13. Thank You

More Related