Conflict Management in the South Caucasus

1. Conflict Management in the South Caucasus

2. Background of the states • Since beginning of XIX c. South Caucasus became part of Russian Empire • 1918 -1921: they Got a history of a short independent statehood which fall under Russian RED Army • 1922-1991: Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan (region called South Caucasus) were incorporated into the Soviet Union as SU Republics • 1991 – all three republics acquired their independence

3. Short background • The first Russo-Iranian war (1804-1813) and Second Russo-Iranian War (1826-1828). Azerbaijan is geographically divided between Russia and Persia • Russia support Armenians in Osman Empire and encourage them to migrate to Caucasus where the majority was Muslim. • 560,000 Armenians were settled in Azerbaijan between 1828 and 1920 by Russian Empire from Ottoman Empire (Turkey) and Persian Impire (Iran) • The Map of ‘’Great Armenia’’ of 363-387

4. What meant Status of Autonomy of Nagorno-Karabakh Autonom. Oblast? • The population of the NKAO, (1989) was 187,000, consisting of: ------- - 137,200 Armenians, or 73.4% - 47,400 Azerbaijanis, or 25.3 %; - 2,400 of Russianas and muslim Kurds, or 1.3 % • The Soviet of People's Deputies of the NKAO - the organ of authority which took decisions on all local matters and participated in supreme Councile of the in the supreme Councile of Azerbaijan SSR by 12 deputes • All organs of government administration, the educational and cultural institutions were in the Armenian language along with Russian and Azerbaijan. • Nagorno-Karabakh region developed faster than Azerbaijan as a whole: - in 1970 - 1986 industrial output of the Republic was 3, - for the NKAO was 3.3: annual growth rates here were above 8.3 per cent). Capital investment rose by a factor of 3.1 in the period from 1970 to 1986 in the Region, and by a factor of 2.5 in the Republic.

5. Some chronology • In 1945, the First Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Armenia, submited proposal to Moscow to incorporate the territory of the Nagorno-Garabagh Autonomous Region into the Armenian SSR. • The communist leader of Azerbaijan SSR expressed his consent, but on condition that the Azerbaijan SSR would retain the Shusha region and that three regions in Armenia bordering Azerbaijan and populated predominantly by Azerbaijanis would be turned over to Azerbaijan. Armenia refused.... • 1986 – Perstroyka, glastnost, liberalization inspired ethnic movements all over USSR • 1987 October - the demonstration in Armenia started on claims to annex the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region (NKAR) of the Azerbaijan SSR to the Armenia SSR. • 1988 July 12 - The Session of People's Deputies of the Regional Soviet in NKAR adopted an anti-constitutional decision on separation from the Azerbaijani SSR.

6. Some chronology • 1992- Ad hoc OSCE Minsk Group was founded to deal with Karabakh issue • 1992- Massacre of escaping Azeri civilians of the city Khojali (Xocali) Nagorno-Karabakh by Armenian and Russian troops 630 women, children, old people killed, 1000 taken war prisoners • 1994 cease fire agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan via mediation of OSCE

7. Results of the WAR (1988-1994) • 30 000 killed from both sides • 16% of Azerbaijan territory is under occupation of military of Armenia, including 6 regions beyond Nagorno-Karabakh • Azerbaijan possess 800 000 IDPs/refugees expelled from Nagorniy Karabakh, Armenia and 6 occupied regions beyond NK • Armenia possess 300 000 refugees from Azerbaijan • UN Security Council passed 4 resolutions: - recognizes the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan - demanded the immediate cessation of military activities - immediate, full and unconditional withdrawal of occupation forces from all the occupied regions of the Azerbaijan Republic. • The Republic of Armenia refused to comply with these demands

8. Conflict management approaches • Role of elites in the conflict • Role of Armenian Diaspora • Role of International community: EU, UN, OSCE, Russia, Iran, Turkey • Fail of ‘’Power mediation’’ as traditional conflict settlement methods • Pluses and minuses of ‘’track sharing’’ approaches

9. ‘’Power mediation’’ and ‘’track sharing’’ approaches1994 The Budapest Summit of Concile Security and Cooperation in Europe adopted a two-stage legal framework of the settlement process: • first stage - full liberation of all occupied territories and ensuring return of IDPs to their homes; • second stage - convening Minsk Conference for final, comprehensive settlement of the conflict. The Budapest Summit also adopted a decision to establish an OSCE peacekeeping operation after the conclusion of the political agreement.

10. ’Power mediation’’ and ‘’track sharing’’ approaches 1996 December 2-3 - OSCE Lisbon Summit. The OSCE statement supported by all (53) OSCE member states except Armenia, on three principles for the settlement of the conflict: • territorial integrity of the Republic of Armenia and the Azerbaijan Republic; • legal status of Nagorno-Karabakh defined in an agreement based on self-determination which confers on Nagorno-Karabakh the highest degree of self-rule within Azerbaijan; • guaranteed security for Nagorno-Karabakh and its whole population, including mutual obligations to ensure compliance by all the parties with the provisions of the settlement;

11. 1997 • January - An institute of "triple" Co-Chairmanship of the OSCE Minsk Conference (Russia, USA and France) was introduced; • The report of the Chairman of the Defense Committee of the State Duma of Russia, Mr. Lev Rokhlin on an illegal delivery of the Russian weapons to Armenia worth of 1 billion USD free of charge. • April 22 - Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe adopted a Resolution (1119), where it stressed the settlement of the conflicts in the region has to be on the basis of the principles set out in the 1975 Helsinki Final Act and the 1990 Paris Charter:       i. inviolability of borders;       ii. guaranteed security for all peoples in the areas concerned, particularly through multinational peacekeeping forces;       iii. extensive autonomy status for Abkhazia and Nagorno-Karabakh to be negotiated by all the parties concerned;       iv. right of return of refugees and displaced persons and their reintegration respecting human rights.

12. 1997 • The Minsk group introduced a "package plan“ i.e. to work in parallel negotiations on two core issues of the confrontation: withdrawal of the armed forces from occupied regions and elaboration of the status of Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia refused the plan.... • Then Minsk Group introduced "step-by-step" settlement plan. • On the 1st stage: - withdrawal of occupying armed forces from six districts, which are outside of the Karabakh, return of civilian population and restoration of the main communication links in the conflict area; on the 2-nd stage: - definition of the status of the Nagorno-Karabakh as well as of Lachin and Shusha;

13. 1997 ex • President of Armenia, L. Ter-Petrosian noted the importance of the step-by-step resolution. However, he had to resign under the pressure of the political-military circles. • The Prime Minister R. Kocharyan (a leader of separatists of Mountainous Karabakh region of Azerbaijan) became a President of the Armenia: the position of Armenia on the settlement of the conflict became tougher. • Between 1997-2002, no meeting of the OSCE Minsk Group was held in full composition. Kocharian Robert President of Armenia Levon ter Petrosian, ex president of Armenia

14. 1998 •  April-May - Armenia officially declared about the denouncment of the consent of the step-by-step settlement; • November -The Co-chairmen brought a new plan called a "common state". • This time Azerbaijani side refused to accept this proposal because of its inconsistence with the norms and principles of international law as well as the national legislation. • Azerbaijan confirmed its readiness to resume negotiations within the OSCE Minsk Group framework, on the basis of the previous proposal of the co-chairmen, on the step-by-step settlement plan;

15. 1999-2002 •   ’’Unknown’’ person broke into the Parliament of Armenia during the session and formKalashnikov killed 7 deputies from ‘’mild’ oppsitional party including Speaker and prime Minister. •  Direct talks between the Presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia. Up to date, they have met more than 20 times. No results have been achieved so far.

16. 2003 The Secretary General of the Council of Europe voiced regret at the recent declaration on "ethnic incompatibility between Armenians and Azerbaijanis", made by President Kocharian of Armenia. "Recalling dark pages of European history will never be a good electoral strategy", underlined Walter Schwimmer in reference to the upcoming presidential elections in Armenia. • February 19 - The presidential elections in Armenia: R. Kocharyan was elected for his second term. • October –President election in Azerbaijan • The observers of OSCE/ODIHR, CE Parliamentary Assembly reported that the both elections were held with serious ‘’irregularities’’ (i.e. was fraud) Ilham Aliev Current president of Azerbaijan Kocharian Robert President of Armenia

17. 2004 • June 19 - The government of Armenia submitted the program on the confclit stating that, "as in previous years, the government sees the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem within peace negotiation process, emphasizing international recognition of the right of the "Artsakh" (Nagorno-Karabakh) people to self-determination and security guarantees of the population of the "Nagorno-Karabakh Republic". The very possibility of subordination of the "Nagorno-Karabakh Republic" to Azerbaijan is ruled out.“ • The Armenian Prime Minister A.Markaryan, speaking about the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, said: "Karabakh must not be part of Azerbaijan, must have a common border with Armenia and that the self-determination of the Karabakh Armenians must be recognized by the world".

18. 2005 • Intensification of the negotiation. • January 11 - The meeting of the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan with participation of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairmen in Prague. • Official concept of Azerbaijan on conflict settlement as of 2005: ‘’ based on international legal norms and the recommendations indicated in the last resolution on the Nagorno Karabakh conflict passed by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, envisions - liberating occupied lands, - repatriating refugees, - establishing relations between the Azerbaijani and Armenian communities and normalizing ties between the two countries. ‘’We consider the liberation of lands a beginning of this process....areas should be cleared from landmines and communication links restored in the future. ...these activities will be impossible without the support of the international community.

19. Conflict management tools Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: • is identity conflict (The Map of ‘’GreatArmenia’’ of 363-387) • deep rooted feelings of insecurity and hatred • non-acknowledging the parties of each other in the negotiation Therefore, • Since symbols and values is a part of each ethnic group’s identity, compromise is much more difficult than in the traditional interstate conflict • Consequently, the peace-building practitioners should - concentrate on the causes of those feelings and develop adequate methods of their transformation and not only on finding political compromises - be careful about the symbolic aspects of the actions.

20. Identity problems • Communities of Nagorno-Karabakh do not recognize each other • Extrapolation of memory of bad events under Ottoman Empire (Turkey) in 1915 on Azerbaijan (Turkish relative people) as a potential danger to security of Armenia