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Incumbent Presidents and Political Business Cycles

Incumbent Presidents and Political Business Cycles. ECON 331: Intermediate Macroeconomics Library Instruction Session Tuesday, Nov. 6, 2007. Nixon v. McGovern 1972. Carter v. Reagan 1980. Reagan v. Mondale 1984. Did the incumbent president engage in a political business cycle?. 1972

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Incumbent Presidents and Political Business Cycles

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  1. Incumbent Presidents andPolitical Business Cycles ECON 331: Intermediate Macroeconomics Library Instruction Session Tuesday, Nov. 6, 2007 Nixon v. McGovern 1972 Carter v. Reagan 1980 Reagan v. Mondale 1984

  2. Did the incumbent president engage in a political business cycle? • 1972 Nixon vs. McGovern • 1980 Reagan vs. Carter • 1984 Reagan vs. Mondale 2

  3. Data that might confirm your conclusion ***Compare statistics from the period covering the first term in office through one year after the election. • GDP • Inflation rates • Real disposable income • Unemployment rates • Money supply • Government transfer payments • Tax rates • Budget deficit 3

  4. Data Resources:Historical Statistics of the United States: Earliest Times to the PresentRef. HA202 .H57 2006 (1st flr. Reference) • Federal Income Taxes Vol. 5: Governance and International Relations • Table Ea773-826: Federal income tax rates, by income group – average rates 1968-2000 (p. 5-116) 4

  5. Data Resources:Historical Statistics of the United States: Earliest Times to the PresentRef. HA202 .H57 2006 (1st flr. Reference) • Budget Deficit Vol. 5: Governance and International Relations • Table Ea679-682 Federal government finances – expenditure, and debt: 1940-1999 [OMB] 11

  6. Data Resources:Budget of the United States Governmenthttp://www.whitehouse.gov/ • Under In Focus at the left, look under Your Government, and click Office of Management and Budget. • At the left, under President’sBudget: select FY 2008 Budget. • Scroll down to: Historical Tables, Budget of the United States Government, FiscalYear 2008.*** You might want to readthe Historical Trendssection. 14

  7. Budget of the United States Governmenthttp://www.whitehouse.gov/ • Budget Deficit • Section 1: Overview of Federal Government Finances • Table 1.3 - Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surpluses or Deficits (-) in Current Dollars. Constant (FY200) U.S. $, and as % of GDP: 1940 – 2012. 15

  8. Data Resources:Statistical Abstract of the United Stateshttp://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/***or 4th floor Gov Docs.: 3.134: [year] • Transfer Payments • Under Summary Statistics at the right, select Historical Statistics. • Government Transfer Payments to Individuals – Summary, 1948-2001. • Federal Government– Receipts and Outlays. [1900-2003] (Source: U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis “Regional Accounts Data, Annual State Personal Income”) 16

  9. Statistical Abstract of the United Stateshttp://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/ ***or 4th floor Gov Docs.: 3.134: [year] • To access previous editions: • Select Earlier Editions of the abstract from the menu at the top. • Select the date range: (1951-1994). • Select the desired year. • Click the Pages tab at the left of the PDF. • Use the contents menu at the left to access various sections. 17

  10. Statistical Abstract of the United Stateshttp://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/ • Transfer Payments • Section 13: Social Insurance and Human Services • Figure 13.2 Social Welfare Expenditures under Public Programs: 1970-1982. • No. 593: Social Welfare Expenditures under Public Programs: 1960-1983 • No. 595: Social Welfare Expenditures under Public Programs as Percent of GNP and Total Government Outlays: 1960 – 1982 (e.g. from 1986 Statistical Abstract) 18

  11. Statistical Abstract of the United Stateshttp://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/ • Transfer Payments • Section 13: Social Insurance and Human Services • No. 596: Social Welfare Expenditures under Public Programs, Total and Per Capita, in Actual and 1982 Dollars, 1960 to 1982 (e.g. from 1986 Statistical Abstract) 19

  12. Statistical Abstract of the United Stateshttp://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/ • Transfer Payments and Income TaxesSection 15: Income, Expenditures, and Wealth • No. 721: Relation of GNP, National Income, and Personal Income: 1970-1984 (e.g. from 1986 Statistical Abstract) 20

  13. Statistical Abstract of the United Stateshttp://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/ • Transfer Payments, Income Taxes, & Budget Deficit • Section 11: Federal Government Finances and Employment • Fig. 11.2 Budget Receipts and Outlays, (1986- p.46) • No. 491: Federal Budget – Summary: 1940-1985 • No. 492: Federal Budget Receipts, Outlays, and Debt: 1965-1985. (p. 47 of 127.) • No. 493: Federal Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function: 1970-1985. (e.g. from 1986 Statistical Abstract) 21

  14. Statistical Abstract of the United Stateshttp://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/ • Transfer Payments, Income Taxes, & Budget Deficit Section 11: Federal Government Finances and Employment • No. 517: Federal Individual Income Tax – Effective (Average) and Marginal Tax Rates, for Selected Income Groups, 1954-1985 (e.g. from 1986 Statistical Abstract) 22

  15. Data Resources:Bureau of Economic Analysis:http://www.bea.gov/ • Transfer Payments • Select All National Accounts Information. • Under Personal Income and Outlays, select Interactive Tables: National Income and Product Accounts Tables. • Choose a table from a list of All NIPA Tables. • Suggested tables: • 3.12. Government Social Benefits (A) 23

  16. Data Resources:Vital Statistics on the Presidency: Washington to ClintonRef. JK518.R34 1996 (1st floor Reference) • Budget Deficit & Taxes • Fig. 7.2 Budget deficit, Eisenhower to Clinton 24

  17. You also need:Studies of economic policy & agenda • Performance of the economy during the first term • Recession?  Cause  Response • What spending programs were enacted? • Who benefited? • Who was hurt? 26

  18. What to look for:(from Tufte, Chapter 1) • Policies that are easy to start up quickly and benefit a lot of voters: • Increase in Real Disposable Income • Increase in transfer payments • Tax cuts • Postponements in tax increases 27

  19. What to look for:(from Tufte, Chapter 1) • Effects on the administration of short-run stimulation attempts: • Inflationary pressure • Destabilization • Disruption of government programs • Political attacks • Necessity of forgoing stimulation at other times 28

  20. Economic policy/agenda resources:Print Reference overviews • The Presidents: A Reference History Ref E176.1 .P918 • The Reader’s Companion to the American Presidency Ref E176.1 .R295 2000 • The American PresidentsRef E176.1 .A6563 2000 ***Check the bibliographical references! 29

  21. Economic policy/agenda resources:Economic Report of the PresidentSUDOC PR 39.9:[year](varies with each administration) http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publications/ERP/ (1960-1980) • Current and foreseeable trends • Numerical goals: • Employment • Production • Real income • Federal budget outlays • Employment objectives • Program for carrying out objectives 30

  22. Economic Report of the PresidentSUDOC PR 39.9:[year](varies with each administration) http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publications/ERP/ (1960-1980) • Many graphs, charts, and tables • Annual Report to the Council of Economic Advisers • Chapter 1: Progress & Problems • Chapter 2. Reducing Economics • Chapter 3. The Economic Outlook • Appendix A: Report to the President on the Activities of the Council of Economic Advisers • Appendix B: Statistical Tables Relating to Income, Employment, and Production 31

  23. Annual Report of the Council of Economic Advisers(part of the Economic Report of the President) • Performance & Policy • Inflation control • Outlook and policy • Effective use of resources 32

  24. Economic policy/agenda resources:Public Papers of the Presidents of the United StatesSUDOC # AE2.114:[year] /http://quod.lib.umich.edu/p/ppotpus/ • Papers and speeches issued by the Office of the Press Secretary • Topical index in the back of each volume • Using the website: http://quod.lib.umich.edu/p/ppotpus/ • Select Browse the papers. • Alphabetical Index at the top of the page is by the presidents’ first names: Richard, Jimmy, Ronald. 33

  25. Economic policy/agenda resources:The Cumulated Indexes to the Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States • …, Jimmy Carter, 1977-1981Ref. J82 .E44 1983 • …, Richard M. Nixon, 1969-1974Ref. J82 .E2 1977 e.g. Economic stabilization program  Taxation, 1971: 264, 280, 287 34

  26. Economic policy/agenda resources:Pro and Con Primary Documents • Presidents from Reagan Through Clinton, 1981-2001: Debating the Issues in Pro and Con Primary DocumentsRef. E176.1 .P922 2002 • Presidents from Nixon Through Carter, 1969-1981: Debating the Issues in Pro and Con Primary Documents(Obtained through E-ZBorrow. See Sue Nelson or the Reference Librarian on duty.) 35

  27. What do others (experts) say? 36

  28. Economic policy/agenda resources:General Collection books • Search Snowden Library’s Online catalog and WorldCat for info on: • Presidential administrations • Elections • Economic policies 37

  29. Search strategy

  30. Searching theOnline catalogandWorldCat Plurals: + Truncation: * • Suggested keywords: • [President’s last name] AND • administration OR presidency • economic policy OR fiscal policy OR fiscal policy • economics • policies • incumbent • political business cycle OR business cycle • election 39

  31. Searching theOnline catalogandWorldCat • Suggested subject headings: • Nixon, Richard M. (Richard Milhous), 1913-1994.  • Carter, Jimmy, 1924- • Reagan, Ronald. • United States -- Politics and government -- 1977-1981. • Presidents -- United States -- Election -- 1976   • Business cycles -- Political aspects -- United States. • United States -- Economic policy -- 1961-1971. • United States -- Economic conditions -- 1971-1981. 40

  32. Browsing Snowden Library’s Bookshelves • E 851 – 860 Nixon • E 868 – 875 Carter • E 875 – 879 Reagan • HB 3711 – 3840 Business cycles • HC U.S. Economic Policy • JK 526 [year] Presidential elections

  33. EconLit Plurals +Truncation *Phrases no “ ” necessary • Ask the reference librarian to log in for you. • Indexes Working papers (e.g. NBER) • Studies of Particular Policy Episodes -- E650 as Subject phrase. AND President’s name as Keyword. • political business cycle AND united states1968-2008 42

  34. Economic policy/agenda resources:Articles -Subscription Databases • Business Source Premiere • Includes American Economic Review, Applied Financial Economics, Journal of Economic Issues, and the Journal of the History of Economic Thought. • Phrases “ “ • Truncation * 43

  35. Business Source Premiere database • Topic: an administration’s economic policies • Try acombined search of BSP with other EBSCO databases: Academic Search Premiere and History Reference Center. • Keyword search. • Narrow results using the Narrow by Subject links at the left. • Select Refine Search tab and limit to Academic Journals. 44

  36. Business Source Premiere database • Topics: political business cycles during the time of the administration • Browse Thesaurus for “business cycles”. • Add. • Browse Thesaurus for “politics”. • Click Business & politics, and Add to search using and. • Search • Refine to Academic Journals and 1976-2008. 45

  37. JSTOR database Phrases “ “ • Topic: • an administration’s economic policies • political business cycles during the time of the administration • Enter Keywords. • Limit by: • Type: Article • Date Range • Article Language • Discipline(s) and/or Journal(s): • Business • Economics • History • Political Science • Public Policy & Administration 46

  38. JSTOR database(cont.) • Look at Article Information and read Abstract. • Click on Title to look at how many pages discuss this topic. • Look at Articles that discuss this article. • Evaluate relevance, and download if desired. 47

  39. Sage Premiere database Two consecutive words in a box are a phrase. • American Politics Research, The American Review of Public Administration, The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, Review of Radical Political Economics, Comparative Political Studies, American Politics Research • Enter Keywords. • Search. • Evaluate relevance of articles by reading Abstracts. • Open PDF and Download, if desired. • If not available full-text, request from ILL. • Look at Citing Articles in Google Scholar. 48

  40. National Journal Group’s Policy Central • About NJ (Quotes from their website) • “As the leading weekly on the policy-making process, National Journal is widely read in all branches of government, in businesses and in the policy community.” • “Professionals choose National Journal for the beneath-the-surface coverage of the issues, people and organizations that shape our nation's policy.” 49

  41. National Journal Group’s Policy Central • Phrases “ “ • Truncation * • Select Advanced Search at the right. • Construct Keyword search using operators AND and OR. • Pull down to Advanced (*Boolean*). • Select: Sort results by relevance. • Submit search. • Scroll down results list. • Copy and paste the article into a Word document. 50

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