2006 Elections, Recent Public Opinion Findings

1. 2006 Elections, Recent Public Opinion Findings By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College www2.aacc.edu/csli

2. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County Contrast past with present: Ehrlich’s 2002 victory – the ascendance of ‘red’ Maryland over ‘blue’

3. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County • Contrast past with present: Ehrlich’s vote in 2006

4. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County Composite Picture – 2006

5. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County Trends in Party Registration - Statewide

6. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County How do Republican Candidates Win without Party Registration Advantages? Democratic defectors hold the key to Ehrlich success in 2002: All Rep and unaffiliated voters = 731128 Ehrlich ’02 vote = 879592 Democratic defections (and other party registrants): 2002 -148464 2006 - 11927

7. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County Anne Arundel Only ResultsExit Poll

8. 2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Results Anne Arundel Consistently supports Rep. Gubernatorial Candidates

9. 2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Results

10. 2006 Elections: Party Defections – Govr’s Race Anne Arundel County Results How do Republican Candidates Win without Party Registration Advantages –Data from Anne Arundel County Exit Poll Democratic defectors more numerous (17%) than Republican defectors (10%) Unaffiliated voted disproportionately for Ehrlich (54%) Informed about Governor/County Executives Candidates’ Stands on Issues?

11. Anne Arundel Only ResultsDemographics of O’Malley Vote – Exit Poll 61% African-Americans 56% 70+ 50% Postgrad 50% 61-70 49% <$50k 49% Women 47% $50-75k 47% 18-30+ 50% Some Coll. 45% 31-40 42% Overall 40% 51-60 38% >$110k+ 38% Bachelor’s 37% 41-50 37% Whites 36% HS or less 36% Men 32% $75-110k

12. Anne Arundel County Only ResultsDemographics of O’Malley Vote – Exit Poll 93% Strong Dem 78% Weak Dem 65% Jewish 60% “Other” 48% Protestant 46% “Non-practicing” 42% Overall 38% Independent 36% Catholic 27% Evangelical 5% Weak Rep 2% Strong Rep

13. 2006 Elections: Govr’s Race – Issues in AA County What issues were salient in Governor’s Race in 2006? Data from Anne Arundel County Exit Poll Depends how you ask the question! Closed-ended: Economy -21% Education – 18% Taxes – 16% Crime - 13 Open-ended: Education – 18% Taxes – 8% Economy – 5% Crime -4%

14. 2006 Elections: Govr’s Race – Candidate Traits Motivating Voters in A A County Traits Motivating Vote for Governor – Exit Poll

15. 2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Results Voting Quirks – Blank Votes by Council District

16. 2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Only Anne Arundel County Voting Quirks – Blank Votes by Countywide Races

17. 2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County More Voting Quirks: Republican % of Absentee/Provisional Ballots

18. 2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Results County Executive Results

19. 2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Results Vote for County Executive/County Executive by Party More defections in County Executive race; unaffiliated voters move from Republican to Democratic support

20. Anne Arundel County ResultsDemographics of Johnson Vote – Exit Poll 61% African-Americans 60% $50-75k 55% 31-40 55% Some Coll. 53% 70+ 54% Postgrad 52% 18-30+ 52% <$50k 51% >$110k+ 50% 61-70 50% Women/Men 49% Overall 45% 41-50 44% HS or less 43% Bachelor’s 41% 51-60 37% Whites 39% $75-110k

21. Anne Arundel County ResultsDemographics of Johnson Vote – Exit Poll 89% Strong Dem 79% Weak Dem 66% “Non-practicing” 60% Jewish 56% “Other” 52% Protestant 49% Overall 46% Catholic 53% Independent 28% Evangelical 15% Weak Rep 12% Strong Rep

22. 2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Results County Executive Candidates: Issues

23. 2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Results County Executive Candidates: Candidate Traits

24. 2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Results Factors Influencing the Vote for County Executive by Candidate

25. Since the Elections: Schools and Taxes CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007 Support for Superintendent’s Request for a 17% School Budget Increase?

26. Since the Elections: How to Pay for Looming County Expenses? CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007 The County will be facing several budget challenges over the next few years including funding public schools, roads, changes in accounting rules, and increasing salaries to help recruit qualified government employees. Which of the following best reflects your views about how the County should deal with these challenges:

27. Since the Elections: Taxes and Spending Balance CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007 Generally, do you trust the County to find the right balance between paying for these expenses and keeping taxes as low as possible?

28. Since the Elections: BRAC CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007Heard about BRAC? Positive or Negative Impact?

29. Since the Elections: BRAC CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007How to deal with influx of new workers and the demand for housing? “Many of these new workers may seek to find housing in Anne Arundel County. Do you agree or disagree with the following proposals meant to accommodate such new workers?”

30. Since the Elections: Various State and Local Legislative Proposals CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007

31. Since the Elections: President Bush’s Job Approval CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007

32. DEM Presidential Primaries: National Trends

33. DEM Presidential Primaries: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada

34. REP Presidential Primaries: National Trends

35. REP Presidential Primaries: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada

36. Presidential Primaries: Head to Head Match-ups Based on Zogby 7-18-07