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PATE’S GRAMMAR SCHOOL

PATE’S GRAMMAR SCHOOL. MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Policy Recommendation. MONEY MARKETS. International monetary policy, credit availability and the exchange rate. International Monetary Policy. Source: Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, own forecasts.

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PATE’S GRAMMAR SCHOOL

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  1. PATE’S GRAMMAR SCHOOL MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE

  2. Policy Recommendation

  3. MONEY MARKETS International monetary policy, credit availability and the exchange rate

  4. International Monetary Policy Source: Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, own forecasts Key: Past data Forecast

  5. Exchange Rate Source: Bank of England, own forecasts Key: Past data Forecast Feb forecast Nov forecast Depreciation until EU referendum has passed

  6. Source: Bank of England, own forecasts Money Supply Key: Past data Forecast Feb forecast Nov forecast

  7. Housing Market Source: ONS, own forecasts Key: Past data Forecast Feb forecast Nov forecast

  8. House Prices and Consumption Source: ONS

  9. Summary of Money Markets

  10. DOMESTIC DEMAND Consumption, investment and government spending

  11. Average Weekly Earnings Source: LMS Labour Market Statistics, own forecasts Key: Past data Forecast Feb forecast Nov forecast

  12. Source: Resolution Foundation NLW Gains Across Distribution

  13. Consumer Confidence Source: GfK, Pate’s Consumer Survey

  14. Savings Ratio Source: ONS, own forecasts Key: Past data Forecast

  15. Consumption Source: Bank of England, own forecasts Key: Past data Forecast Feb forecast Nov forecast

  16. Investment Intentions Source: BCC, CBI, Pate’s Business Survey

  17. Investment Source: Bank of England, own forecasts Key: Past data Forecast Feb forecast Nov forecast Source: Bank of England, own forecasts Investment to accelerate after political uncertainty of the EU referendum has passed Time

  18. Government Spending Source: OBR, own forecasts Key: Past data Forecast Feb forecast Nov forecast

  19. Summary of Domestic Demand

  20. EXTERNAL DEMAND Imports, exports and the balance of payments

  21. Growth and Inflation in Trading Partners Source: ONS, IMF, own calculations

  22. Net Trade Source: ONS, own forecasts Key: Past data Forecast Feb forecast Nov forecast

  23. Summary of External Demand

  24. GDP Forecast Source: ONS, own forecasts

  25. COSTS AND PRICES Oil prices, commodity prices and core inflation

  26. Oil Prices Source: IMF, own forecasts Key: Past data Forecast Feb forecast Nov forecast

  27. Commodity Prices Source: IMF, own forecasts Key: Past data Forecast

  28. Core Inflation Source: Trading Economics, own forecast Key: Past data Forecast

  29. Summary of Costs and Prices

  30. LABOUR MARKETS Unemployment, productivity and the output gap

  31. Unemployment Source: ONS, OECD, own forecasts Key: Past data Forecast Feb forecast Nov forecast

  32. Productivity Source: ONS, own forecasts Key: Past data Forecast Feb forecast Nov forecast

  33. Statistical Investigation of Inflation Expectations

  34. Employee Compensation Source: ONS, own forecasts Key: Past data Forecast

  35. Unit Labour Costs Source: ONS, own forecasts Key: Past data Forecast Feb forecast Nov forecast

  36. Output Gap Source: HM Treasury, own forecast Our current output gap estimate = - 0.1% Average estimate = - 0.3%

  37. Summary of Labour Markets

  38. CONCLUDING REMARKS Our inflation forecast, historical analysis and policy recommendation

  39. Overall Summary

  40. Inflation Forecast Source: ONS, own forecast

  41. Source: Bank Underground, own estimates Estimate of Wicksellian Rate of Interest using COMPASS Key: Past data Estimate

  42. Japan in 2000 Source: Bank of Japan (日本銀行)

  43. Sweden in 2011 Source: SverigesRiksbank

  44. Policy Recommendation

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