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Presented at: The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 24 March 2011

Tunisia Predicted: Demography and the Probability of Liberal Democracy in the Greater Middle East. Richard Cincotta Consultant on Political Demography, The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Demographer-in-residence The Stimson Center rcincotta@stimson.org. Presented at:

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Presented at: The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 24 March 2011

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  1. Tunisia Predicted: Demography and the Probability of Liberal Democracy in the Greater Middle East Richard Cincotta Consultant on Political Demography, The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Demographer-in-residence The Stimson Center rcincotta@stimson.org Presented at: The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 24 March 2011

  2. Thanks to: • National Intelligence CouncilLong Range Analysis Unit • Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Environmental Change & Security Program. • The Stimson Center

  3. Four democracy questions • Why are some states seemingly “unready for liberal democracy”? • Why are some groups of liberal democracies so stable? • Why has there been a decade-long break in political liberalization? • What are reasonable expectations for developing states in terms of democratization?

  4. Data: UN Population Division, 2009

  5. Jordan Syria Egypt Algeria Tunisia Year (5-yr period)

  6. Transitional Population age structures 2005 Cincotta, 2009 Data: UN Population Division, 2009

  7. Four categories: four individual countries DATA SOURCE: UN Population Division, 2009

  8. Effort needed to recruit for political violence Hobbesian Bargain Hypothesis: Security Elites Citizenry Political rights Civil liberties Youth Bulge Hypothesis: Low amount of effort needed High amount of effort needed

  9. Youthful Intermediate Mature Post-Mature Net Benefits Authoritarianism Liberalization 15 25 35 45 55 Median Age (Years)

  10. Violent intra-state conflict Liberal democracy Youthful Intermediate Mature Post-Mature Likelihood 15 25 35 45 55 Median Age (Years)

  11. Transitional Population age structures 2005 • Zone of Vulnerability: • high risk of political violence • high risk of losing liberal democracy Data: UN Population Division, 2009

  12. Proportion of liberal democracies in age-structural categories Youthful Intermediate Mature Post-Mature Proportion Liberal democracies Nil set

  13. Liberal democracy and age-structural youthfulness in 5 world regions, 1975-2005 Cincotta & Doces, 2011 Data: UN Population Division, 2009

  14. Youth bulges and the path to liberal democracy: 8 selected states Some anecdotal evidence of rises as youth bulge declines. Cincotta, 2009

  15. Four democracy questions • Why are some states seemingly “unready for liberal democracy”? • States with youthful populations have a lower probability of rising to and remaining a liberal democracy • Why are some groups of liberal democracies so stable? • States with mature populations typically have stable liberal democracies. • Why has there been a decade-long break in political liberalization? • Few developing countries are moving through the “sweet spot” of their age structural transition (median age ~26 to 35 years) • What are reasonable expectations for developing states in terms of democratization? • Don’t have high expectations for democracy when age structures are young.

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