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Space Weather: Impacts on Aviation

Space Weather: Impacts on Aviation. Bill Murtagh NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado. WSI 19 June, 2012. Overview. Outline. Growing concerns Solar Cycle Space Weather types and impacts Solar Flares Radio Blackouts (R Scale) Radiation Storms (S Scale)

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Space Weather: Impacts on Aviation

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  1. Space Weather: Impacts on Aviation Bill Murtagh NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado WSI 19 June, 2012

  2. Overview Outline • Growing concerns • Solar Cycle • Space Weather types and impacts • Solar Flares Radio Blackouts (R Scale) • Radiation Storms (S Scale) • Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale)

  3. March 2012 Impacts on Aviation Comms 7 March 2012: INCERFA was issued for Air Canada 003 (Vancouver to Tokyo) until communications were established with the flight. (INCERFA is issued when there is uncertainty as to the safety of an aircraft and its occupants.) Uncertainty phase (INCERFA) Alert phase (ALERFA) Distress phase (DETRESFA) 6-7 March 2012: “Severe impact at 2249Z initially affecting CWP [Central West Pacific] but by 2400Z, impact peaked and was affecting all communications. 25 ATC messages were delayed.” - Air Traffic Communications

  4. Status of Solar Cycle – Smoothed Sunspot Number (SSN) • Solar minimum in December 2008 • Cycle 24 Maximum – May 2013

  5. Large geomagnetic storms can occur with smaller cycles • The largest geomagnetic storms on record occurred • during smaller than average cycles 1859 Storm 1921 Storm

  6. Sep 1859 and May 1921 Geomagnetic Superstorms 1921 1859 • Aurora visible in Apia, Samoa, 13 degrees south • 100 year storm?? • Aurora reported as far south as Cuba and Honolulu • 500 year storm??

  7. Sunspots and the Solar Cycle The Sun at solar maximum Large, complex sunspot clusters often produce large flares ~27 day full rotation

  8. What is space weather? Space weather refers to the variable conditions on the Sun and in the space environment that can influence the performance and reliability of space and ground­based technological systems, as well as endanger life or health. Ionosphere Electromagnetic Radiation Energetic Charged Particles Magnetic Field (Magnetized Plasma) Magnetosphere

  9. Radiation Storms Geomagnetic Storms Geomagnetic Storms NOAA Space Weather Scales http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/ Radio Blackouts

  10. Solar Flares Radio Blackouts (R Scale) - A violent explosion in the Sun's atmosphere with an energy equivalent of a hundred million hydrogen bombs. • Short-lived (mins to ~3 hrs) • Daylight side • No warning! • Minimal impact at Poles GPS Network Communications Ground and Space-based Radar Image from NASA SOHO Satellite

  11. Communication Center: 07Sep05 1800Z:   “Solar activity severely impacted all HF comms.  Higher frequencies utilized with little effect.  24 aircraft position reports and NYC ATC messages were relayed via sat-voice between 1040Z and 1939Z. Severe operational impact.”  “The flare resulted in significant impacts to the network of air traffic control radars in Canada, causing false targets and interference in the N/S direction on scales of approximately 150 miles in length.”

  12. Solar Flare (Radio Burst) Impact on GPS – 6 Dec 2006 GPSOC at Schriever AFB - “At approximately 6 Dec/1930Z there was a widespread loss of GPS in the Mountain States region, specifically around the 4 corners region of NM/CO. Several aircraft reported losing lock on GPS…were tracking 7-9 satellites, and abruptly lost lock and were tracking 0-1.” ~10 mins

  13. Solar Flare Radio Blackouts (NOAA R-scale) • Alerts and Summary messages are issued for R2-R5 • Currently, NO warning products (imminent near-term • forecast) exist • Three-day probability forecasts are provided Issue Time: 2001 Sep 24 1020UTC ALERT: X-ray Flux exceeded M5Threshold Reached: 2001 Sep 24 1015 UTCCurrent X-ray Flux: M6.1Location: S16E23 Region Number: 9632NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

  14. Solar Radiation Storms (S Scale) • Impacts… • Satellite Operations (range from • loss of data to loss of satellite) • Aviation (communications and • exposure concerns) • High latitude HF comm outage • Arrival: 30 minutes to • several hours • Duration: hours to days • Focus on Poles • Night side and day side • impacted

  15. Radiation storm impacts on polar routes • Exposure and communications concerns Delta Airlines (27-29 Jan, 2012) – “For 3 days in a row, they [Polar flights] were having difficulties with HF communications with ATC.”

  16. Civil Aerospace Medical Institute (CAMI) Low latitude concerns also exist: ALERT: Solar Radiation Alert at Flight Altitudes Conditions Began: 2003 Oct 28 2113 UTC Comment: Satellite measurements indicate unusually high levels of ionizing radiation, coming from the sun. This may lead to excessive radiation doses to air travelers at Corrected Geomagnetic Latitudes above 35 degrees north, or south. (Federal Aviation Administration)

  17. Source location of flare is a critical factor in radiation storm prediction R3 R3 R-scale should not be used as an indicator of HF problems over the poles! Use S-scale

  18. Solar Radiation Storms (NOAA S-scale) • Warnings, Alerts and Summary messages are issued for S1-S5 • Warnings, Alerts and Summary messages also issued for >100 MeV events • Three-day probability forecasts are provided WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected Issue Time: 2001 Sep 26 1732UTC WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expectedValid From: 2001 Sep 26 1731 UTCValid To: 2001 Sep 28 1800 UTCWarning Condition: OnsetPredicted NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

  19. Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale) Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 50 or greater predicted Issue Time: 2001 Sep 24 1732UTC WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 50 or greater predictedValid for UTC Day: 2001 Sep 26 NOAA Scale: Periods reaching the G3 (Strong) Level Likely

  20. Geomagnetic Storms – Near-term Forecast WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expectedValid From: 2001 Sep 30 0230 UTCValid To: 2001 Sep 30 1500 UTCNOAA Scale: G3 or greater - Strong to Extreme CME impacts ACE spacecraft

  21. GPS IMPACT – U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS) • Intense geomagnetic and ionosphere storms occur on 29 and 30 Oct, 2003 • Acceptable vertical error limits were exceeded for 15 and 11-hour periods METERS

  22. Geomagnetic storm can impact comms…mostly high latitude ENROUTE NOTAM 0716 EFF:09DEC/0208Z - 13DEC/2235Z GRIDS: YWG YYC YYE JNU YBK YFS ANC DCN DPR DFE DNP B5060/06 CZEG. DUE TO GEO-MAGNETIC STORM IMPACT ON COMMS THE FOLLOWING RESTRICTIONS APPLY TO ALL FLT OPR AT FL290 OR ABV TRANSITING CZEG FIR N OF 60N: 1. ALL ACFT SHALL OPR ON PUB TRACKS. POLAR FLT VIA RAMEL, ORVIT, DEVID, ABERI EXEMPT. 2. NO LATERAL TRACKS WHILE E OF 7000W. 3. TRACKS M450, M452, AND M454 ARE RESTRICTED TO WESTBOUND FLT AVBL LEVELS FL300, FL360, FL380 4. TRACKS M451 AND M453 ARE RESTRICTED TO EASTBOUND FLT AVBL LVLS FL290, FL330. 5. POLAR FLT DEPARTING NORTH AMERICA TRANSITING VIA RAMEL OR ORVIT SHALL OPR AT FL320 OR FL340. 6. POLAR FLT DEPARTING NORTH AMERICA TRANSITING VIA DEVID OR ABERI SHALL OPR AT FL310 OR FL350. 7. POLAR FLT DEPARTING ASIA TRANSITING VIA RAMEL OR ORVIT SHALL OPR AT FL370 OR FL390.

  23. Impacts on Electric Power Grid • CME impacts Earth’s magnetic field • Fluctuations generate electric fields on • Earth. These geomagnetically induced • currents (GIC) can flow into power lines and • transformers • Leads to transformer saturation and • over-heating, voltage drops, transformer • damage, grid collapse • Vulnerability of US grid • Northern latitude, (location of auroral electrojet during geomagnetic storms) • Areas of relatively high resistive igneous rock • Very high voltage interconnected transmission network • Proximity to oceans (conductivity of ocean salt water) (Credit: K. Turnbull / J. Wild / ESA)

  24. Geomagnetic Storms (NOAA G-scale) • Warnings and Alerts are issued for G1 - G5 • Storm Watches are issued up to three days in advance • Three-day forecasts are also provided daily

  25. Technology evolution • Interconnection/Interdependency • Reliance on space-based systems A Nation vulnerable to hazardous space weather – A Nation increasingly reliant on space weather services

  26. National and International Activities Underway… Critical activities being conducted in parallel • FAA Aviation Weather Group tasked to develop requirements to be provided to NWS and coordinated with ICAO • ICAO ANC tasked volcanic ash group to develop space weather requirements, with United States leading international effort • WMO Executive Council established an inter-program coordination team to address space weather services

  27. And on a lighter note… “It would appear that during an extreme space weather storm, we may have to resort to messenger pigeons as our primary means of communication!!!” FEMA rep…

  28. Homing Pigeons Pigeons have internal biological compasses composed of the mineral magnetite which is affected by geomagnetic storms. Pigeon racers will not release their birds when G1-G5 geomagnetic storm conditions are observed or predicted. Space Weather for Dummies • “The year 2000 which has been very brutal for young bird racing here in North America and Europe coinciding with the high of the cycle of solar radiation in 2000” – Alberta Classic

  29. Space Weather Impacts are Global: October 2003 Numerous Polar flights rerouted Failures of GPS based positioning NOTAM Route restrictions due to geomagnetic storm impact on communications Solar cell damage on ESA’s Smart-1 satellite Loss of Japan’s ADEOS II satellite Nuclear power plants reduced power due to geomagnetic storm SatComm and HF outages Widespread HF outage over African continent Numerous anomalies on FedSat and other Australian satellites Oilfield services company reported several cases of survey Instrument Interference around world C.R. Luigs drill ship, loses GPS, resorts to backup systems Transformer damage SatComm and HF outages Over 130 hours of HF communication blackout in Anarctic

  30. January 2012 Flares • “The San Francisco/SFO ARINC Radio Communications Center reported that the CEP (Central East Pacific) and CWP (Central West Pacific) regions were impacted severely by solar activity between 1830Z and 1930Z on 27 Jan due to the R3 solar flare radio blackout.”

  31. POCs Katy Human NOAA Public Affairs in Boulder, CO303-497-4747katy.g.human@noaa.gov Kunches, Joseph  SWPC Media Lead 303-497-5275  joseph.kunches@noaa.gov Bob Rutledge SWPC Forecast Office Lead 303-497-3029 robert.rutledge@noaa.gov Bill Murtagh SWPC Program Coordinator 303-497-7492 william.murtagh@noaa.gov http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ Or visit us on Facebook FEMA External Affairs 22 Mar 2012

  32. Product Subscription Service

  33. Solar Radiation Storms (NOAA S-scale) Radiation Exposure Problem - >100 MeV proton events typically have a very quick onset

  34. WOXX50 KWNP 200708 ALTPAV Serial Number: 9992 Issue Time: 2005 Jan 20 0705 UTC ALERT: Solar Radiation Alert at Flight Altitudes Conditions Began: 2005 Jan 0650 UTC Comments: Satellite measurements indicate unusually high levels of ionizing radiation coming from the Sun. This may lead to excessive radiation doses to air travelers on trans-polar and other high-latitude flights.

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