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Andrew J. Pershing , Cornell University Barbara A. Bailey , University of Illinois

C limate-based A ssessment & F orecasting for E cosystems in the Gulf of Maine. Andrew J. Pershing , Cornell University Barbara A. Bailey , University of Illinois Loretta O’Brien , NOAA NEFSC Jon K. T. Brodziak , NOAA NEFSC Charles H. Greene , Cornell University

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Andrew J. Pershing , Cornell University Barbara A. Bailey , University of Illinois

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  1. Climate-based Assessment & Forecasting for Ecosystemsin theGulf of Maine Andrew J. Pershing, Cornell University Barbara A. Bailey, University of Illinois Loretta O’Brien, NOAA NEFSC Jon K. T. Brodziak, NOAA NEFSC Charles H. Greene, Cornell University Jack Jossi, NOAA NEFSC

  2. Acknowledgements • Hydrographic Data • Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Bedford, NS • Funding • NOAA Coastal Ocean Program, “Synthesis and Forecasting” • NSF grant for US participation in ICES

  3. Outline • Motivation • Applied questions • Climate variability and ecosystems • Climate variability in the Gulf of Maine • NAO--Slope Water--Calanus • Regime shift in the Gulf of Maine • Management implications

  4. Photo courtesy Cornell Bioacoustics Program Photo courtesy NEFSC Motivation • Applied questions: • How large is population X? How is it changing? • Presence/absence of X • Quality of ecosystem services

  5. Photo courtesy Cornell Bioacoustics Program Photo courtesy NEFSC Motivation • Applied questions: • How large is population X? How is it changing? • Presence/absence of X • Quality of ecosystem services • In most cases, we know the answer for mean conditions • Need information on variability

  6. Physical Variability • Interdecadal climate comes in two flavors: • Interannual • ENSO • NAO • Regime shift • PDO

  7. Physical Variability • Interdecadal climate comes in two flavors: • Interannual • ENSO • NAO • Regime shift • PDO Goal is to forecast

  8. Physical Variability • Interdecadal climate comes in two flavors: • Interannual • ENSO • NAO • Regime shift • PDO Goal is to forecast Goal is to detect

  9. NAO Labrador Sea Gulf of Maine Gulf Stream Coupled Slope Water System Climate Variability & the Gulf of Maine

  10. NAO RSW Temp. Calanus finmarchicus Gulf of Maine Climate Variability 1-2 yr 6 mo

  11. Gulf of Maine Climate Variability NAO 1-2 yr RSW Temp. 6 mo Calanus finmarchicus • Lags support forecasts • processes tied to RSW Temp? • processes tied to Calanus abundance? • Right whale reproduction

  12. NAO-Slope Water-Calanus is nice, but just one mode of physical variability just one species Ecosystem based management requires an ecosystem-wide view Gulf of Maine Climate Variability

  13. NAO-Slope Water-Calanus is nice, but just one mode of physical variability just one species Ecosystem based management requires an ecosystem-wide view So, back to the CPR! Gulf of Maine Climate Variability

  14. Regime Shifts in the Gulf of Maine Calanus finmarchicus

  15. Regime Shifts in the Gulf of Maine Calanus finmarchicus Centropages typicus

  16. Regime Shifts in the Gulf of Maine Calanus finmarchicus Centropages typicus Oithona spp.

  17. Calanus finmarchicus Centropages typicus Oithona spp. Pseudocalanus spp. Regime Shifts in the Gulf of Maine

  18. Georges Bank Haddock GoM Witch Flounder GoM Yellowtail Flounder Management Implications • Survival (R/SSB) of 3 stocks was significantly different between 1980’s and 1990’s

  19. Conclusions • Two patterns in Gulf of Maine zooplankton community: • NAO-Slope Water-Calanus • Regime shift • Both patterns are potential management tools • Future Work • What’s driving the regime shifts? • Nonlinear time series analysis

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