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Impact evaluation of Climate Change interventions

Impact evaluation of Climate Change interventions. Dr Virinder Sharma, DFID India. Current state of play on IE of CC and Environment interventions. 2008 Review- Adaptation: evaluations based on qualitative methods Stakeholder interviews Lack baselines Not integrated into project

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Impact evaluation of Climate Change interventions

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  1. Impact evaluation of Climate Change interventions Dr Virinder Sharma, DFID India

  2. Current state of play on IE of CC and Environment interventions • 2008 Review- Adaptation: evaluations based on qualitative methods • Stakeholder interviews • Lack baselines • Not integrated into project • Mitigation: Desk reviews, interviews and short visits • Lack of counterfactual analysis • Exceptions: PES, Protected areas and Forest conservation

  3. Challenges of conducting IE of CC • Environment- Long term lag between intervention and impact ; Environmental & welfare outcomes • Adaptation indicators and success? • Focused on CB & governance processes • Mitigation -how to assess impact on welfare and the adaptation co-benefits Possible approaches: • Use behavioural change as a proxy • Use indicators of development effectiveness to assess impact on adaptive capacity

  4. Determinants of adaptive capacity Adaptive capacity is determined by access to and control over livelihood resources Access and control over these resources are determined by policies, institutions and power structures

  5. SL framework: Determinants of adaptive capacity

  6. Sustainable Livelihoods Framework: 14 Household vulnerability indicators

  7. DFID RL projects: IE Methodology Objective: Comprehensive Impact Evaluation based on qualitative and quantitative analysis • Whether there is change, what contributed to change? Is is attributable to the project? Design: Counterfactual analysis; Mix Design and Cross-sectional; difference in difference estimation Instruments: HH schedule; FGD checklist, MoP, LIMES Sample: Random selection of intervention/control groups. • 32 MWS Project, 16 MWS Control • Project 1400 hh (64 villages), Control 700 hh (32 villages)

  8. Sample Profile • BPL - 67% (P), 62% (C) • ST- 49% (P), 29% (C)

  9. Socio-economic, Climate/Environment outcomes Increase in Livelihood Assets

  10. Socio-economic, Climate/environment Outcomes Improvement in disaster coping capacity

  11. Critical reflection of IE in CC and Development programmes • Climate Change: local vs. macro impacts regional/global) • CCA and development: Uncertainty, risk management, vulnerability and resilience (transformative?) • Participation approaches (Low income) vs. heterogeneity • Political economy/governance issues • Application to Government programmes- Physical and Financial achievements vs. Inputs & outputs • Outcome budgeting (indicators) outcomes-impact • Results Framework Document: success indicators • Evidence of effectiveness of funds/interventions; What works- what doesn’t- circumstances-cost • Positive examples: Watershed, NREGA/Green Jobs

  12. Potential Impacts of Climate variability in Western Orissa: drought

  13. Potential Impacts of Climate variability in Western Orissa- sand casting/flash floods

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