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2014 Pollock Operational Assessment

2014 Pollock Operational Assessment. 2014 Operational Assessment Meeting Woods Hole, MA August 11-13, 2014. Outline. Background Fishery Research Surveys Assessment Biological Reference Points Projections Summary. Outline. Background Fishery Research Surveys Assessment

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2014 Pollock Operational Assessment

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  1. 2014 Pollock Operational Assessment 2014 Operational Assessment Meeting Woods Hole, MA August 11-13, 2014

  2. Outline • Background • Fishery • Research Surveys • Assessment • Biological Reference Points • Projections • Summary

  3. Outline • Background • Fishery • Research Surveys • Assessment • Biological Reference Points • Projections • Summary

  4. Background • Last assessed in 2010 as part of SARC 50 • Accepted methods from SARC 50 used in this assessment • Four additional years of data incorporated (2010-2013)

  5. Outline • Background • Fishery • Research Surveys • Assessment • Biological Reference Points • Projections • Summary

  6. Fishery

  7. Fishery: MRIP • MRIP estimates used 2004-2013 • Converted MRFSS to MRIP 1981-2003 • MRFSS to MRIP conversion factors: • Landings (num): -11% • Landings (kg): -10% • Discards (num): -4% • Discards (kg): -5%

  8. Fishery: Age Structure

  9. Fishery: Age Structure • SARC 50: commercial discard fall ALKs for 2001-2008 did not include fall survey data. • 2001-2008 fall ALKs reconstructed with both commercial and fall survey data • SARC 50 base model was rerun with revised commercial discard at age matrix

  10. Fishery: Age Structure

  11. Revised SARC 50 / SARC 50 Commercial Discards at Age Fishery: Age Structure

  12. Revised SARC 50 vs SARC 50 Fishery: Age Structure

  13. Fishery: Age Structure

  14. Fishery: Age Structure

  15. Outline • Background • Fishery • Research Surveys • Assessment • Biological Reference Points • Projections • Summary

  16. NEFSC Bottom Trawl Surveys Spring Research Surveys Fall

  17. Research Survey

  18. Research Survey

  19. Outline • Background • Fishery • Research Surveys • Assessment • Biological Reference Points • Projections • Summary

  20. Assessment: Model • ASAP version 3.0.17 • First age: 1 • Last age: 9 (plus group) • First year: 1970 • Last year: 2013

  21. Used SARC 50 maturity schedule • Assumed constant over time • Estimated with pooled-year data from NEFSC fall survey Assessment: Maturity

  22. Assessment: Natural Mortality • Used SARC 50 final M value • M = 0.2 for all ages (1-9+) and years (1970-2013)

  23. Assessment: Discard CVs • Could not reproduce method used to estimated recreational discard CVs • Used average recreational discard CV from SARC 50 (0.68) for annual recreational discard CVs • For consistency, used average commercial discard CV from SARC 50 (0.30) for annual commercial discard CVs

  24. Assessment: Selectivity • Commercial: 4 time blocks • 1985/1986 • 1993/1994 • 2003/2004 • Recreational: 3 time blocks • 1993/1994 • 2001/2002 • Surveys: dome-shaped • Age 9+ selectivity fixed at 0.5

  25. Assessment: ASAP Results

  26. Assessment: ASAP Results

  27. Assessment: ASAP Results

  28. Assessment: ASAP Results

  29. Assessment: ASAP Results

  30. Assessment: ASAP Results

  31. Assessment: ASAP Results

  32. Assessment: ASAP Results

  33. Assessment: ASAP Results

  34. Assessment: ASAP Results

  35. Assessment: ASAP Results

  36. Assessment: ASAP Results

  37. Assessment: ASAP Results

  38. Assessment: ASAP Results

  39. Assessment: ASAP Results

  40. Assessment: ASAP Results

  41. Assessment: ASAP Results

  42. Assessment: ASAP Results

  43. Assessment: ASAP Results • MCMC simulation used to obtain marginal posterior distributions of SSB and F5-7 • Total iterations: 10,000,000 • Burn-in period: 5,000,000 • Thinning interval: 5,000 • Final iterations: 1,000 • All Gelman-Rubin PSRF between 1 and 1.01

  44. Assessment: ASAP Results

  45. Assessment: ASAP Results

  46. ASAP Results

  47. ASAP Results

  48. ASAP Results

  49. ASAP Results

  50. ASAP Retrospective Analysis

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