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Kentucky State Budget Challenges and Economic Recovery Outlook

Analysis of Kentucky's budget issues, Medicaid concerns, and economic recovery post-WWII downturn. Examining corrections expenditures, public employee benefits, and implications for state spending. Strategies for addressing challenges and setting the stage for future recovery.

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Kentucky State Budget Challenges and Economic Recovery Outlook

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  1. Legislative Interns Dr. James R. Ramsey January 27, 2011

  2. “Short” Session • Non budget but Medicaid issue • Governor’s suggestion • General Assembly suggestion • Which brings us to Passport

  3. Other Leaks in the Bucket • Corrections expenditures • Public employee benefits These are expenditure problems which in combination with economic/revenue problems create our state budget problems

  4. US GDP Endured worsteconomic downturn since WWII * Lowest level during the current recession. The next two quarters (2009:III and IV) have been positive. Sources: NBER, BEA, and BLS.

  5. National Non Agricultural Employment(in 000s) Economy coming back, but job growth will be slow

  6. Kentucky Non Agricultural Employment(in 000s) See any public policy issues here?

  7. Kentucky Manufacturing Employment(in 000s) Structural not Cyclical

  8. Implications • Jobs income individual income tax/sales taxes nearly 80% of state general fund • 11 budget cuts – 11 years

  9. So an election year – a short session – lack of political will – will much happen?

  10. University of Louisville Strategy • Play defense • Set stage for 2012

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