British Columbia Post-Secondary Supply Model Labour Supply Monitoring and Forecasting Workshop

1. British Columbia Post-Secondary Supply Model Labour Supply Monitoring and Forecasting Workshop Vancouver - October 18, 2007 Jennifer Purcell, Ministry of Advanced Education Anne Kittredge, BC Stats

2. Purpose To provide an overview of the new BC Post-Secondary Supply Model initiative, including: • background and context; • objectives; • methodology; • core data requirements and sources; and, • timelines.

3. Context • BC’s economy has been performing at an exceptional level. The provincial economy expanded 3.6 per cent in 2006. • Strong economic growth has been accompanied by a marked drop in the unemployment rate. • At the same time, the size of the provincial pre-retirement age group is growing. It is projected that by 2010, people leaving the workforce in BC will exceed youth entrants. • Strong economic growth combined with demographic shifts in the workforce are contributing to skills imbalances.

4. Context • As skills development is vital in addressing imbalances, BC has increased post-secondary funding to improve system capacity and student access. • However, the post-secondary system needs more lead time to produce qualified workers for occupations in demand. • It is critical for Government to anticipate imbalances and set policies to encourage people to move into key fields of study that meet emerging skill requirements.

5. Objectives • The BC post-secondary supply model will generate current estimates and future projections of available skilled labour. • Supply projections when compared and contrasted with provincial demand projections will provide estimates of potential imbalances for skilled occupations over a 10 year outlook period.

6. Approach • The COPS School Leavers Model (SLM) serves as the starting point for the design of the BC post-secondary supply model. • The COPS SLM provides projections of graduates by field of study transitioning to the labour force, based on data variables that are consistent across all provinces. • The BC supply model will take advantage of data variables available through administrative databases and surveys.

7. Approach • The BC Post-Secondary Supply Model will: • Develop projections of the potential number of future enrolees and graduates by type of institution, credential, and field of study; • Develop projections of the potential number of future labour force entrants produced through the public post-secondary system for higher skill level occupations; and, • Allow for the simulation of scenarios based on factors that impact the production of graduates – demographics, economic conditions, and government policy.

8. Approach • The BC Post-Secondary Supply Model initiative will involve: • Development of a student transition model to track the movement of each student from the secondary system through each level of the post-secondary system. • Construction of an occupational transition model to project the supply of new labour moving from the public post-secondary system to the workforce by probable occupational destination.

9. Approach • The BC Post-Secondary Supply Model initiative will involve: • Creation of a primary indicator of future occupational imbalances by comparing the Occupational Transition Model projections of new supply against COPS projections of new demand. • Development of secondary indicators to shed light on whether the primary indicator of future occupational imbalances will actually materialize.

10. Data Requirements • The student transition model will be based on the Student Transition Project (STP),a collaborative effort of Education, Advanced Education, and the public post-secondary institutions. • The STPhas created a unique dataset that allows researchers to track student transitions through two education systems. • A student level longitudinal file will be created from the STP dataset and used for calculating the year-to-year transition probabilities of students from the secondary system through each year of a specific post-secondary program.

11. Data Requirements • Example: Transition Probabilities of University 1st yr BA Enrolees • These year-to-year transition probabilities will then be applied to the most current enrolment data for each year of a specific program to project the potential size of the future post-secondary labour supply.

12. Data Requirements • The occupational transition model will be created from BC post-secondary outcomes survey data. • BC outcomes surveys cover students completing studies at a public post-secondary institutions. • Detailed information is collected on their labour market participation and the characteristics of their current job, including occupation and whether or not the job is training related. • From this data, field-of-study to occupation transition coefficients will be produced to project the most likely occupation structure of graduatestransitioning from the post-secondary system to the workforce.

13. Data Requirements • Occupational imbalance indicators will be constructed from an analysis of current and future labour market indicators. • The primary indicators will be projections of net change in the number of new jobs (demand) and the new skilled labour produced by the post-secondary system(supply). • Labour market adjustments can play a large role in moderating occupation imbalances. Secondary indicators, covering wage flexibility, occupational and geographic mobility, etc. will be developed to aid analysts in their evaluation of the robustness of the primary indicator.

14. Model Output • The intent is to build a data report for each occupation with the primary indicators displayed as a 7-point scale. The scale will represent various degrees of labour shortage or surplus. The secondary indicators will be added to show its impact on the primary labour imbalance. • Finally, a summary Imbalance Index by occupation will be constructed using a weighted average of the primary and secondary indicators. Each occupation will be given an overall rating of High, Medium, or Low of the likelihood of a future surplus or shortage.

15. Timelines • Phase 1: Build the transition projection model to track the movement of each student through the two education systems. (January 2008) • Phase 2: Explore the indicators of future imbalances for a small group of occupations. (March 2008) • Phase 3: Evaluate Phases 1 and 2. (Fall 2008) • Phase 4: Develop indicators of future labour demand and supply for all occupations. (March 2009)

16. Input from Jurisdictions • Through the Forum of Labour Market Ministers’ Labour Market Information (LMI) Working Group and the COPS Partnership, jurisdictions are exploring the development of a provincial supply model design. • HRSDC has shared the COPS SLM methodology paper with BC to assist with the development of the provincial model. • The LMI Working Group will monitor BC’s progress, and develop a paper that examines the feasibility of expanding the BC supply model initiative to other jurisdictions.

17. Input from Jurisdictions • BC will provide regular status updates on the project through the FLMM LMI and COPS meetings. • Questions and comments on the proposed methodology and data sources required to run the BC supply model can also be forwarded to Jennifer.Purcell@gov.bc.ca • For more information about the STP Projectwww.aved.gov.bc.ca/student_transitions/ • For more information about the student outcomes projectswww.aved.gov.bc.ca/surveys