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Cold War – War of ideology beginning after WW II between US (capitalism) and the former Union of the Soviet Socialist Republics, or the Soviet Union (communism). Northern Front – refers to the Arctic border between North America and the Russian republics.
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Cold War – War of ideology beginning after WW II between US (capitalism) and the former Union of the Soviet Socialist Republics, or the Soviet Union (communism). • Northern Front – refers to the Arctic border between North America and the Russian republics. • Cold Rush – a play of words on the Gold Rush
IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change • Established in 1988 by: • World Meteorological Organization (WMO) • United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) • Open to all member governments of the UN and WMO • IPCC statement on their role: • “The role of the IPCC is to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation.”
IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change • Under the auspices of the IPCC, every 5-6 years over 1000 scientists from more than 100 nations assess the published scientific literature documenting the state of scientific knowledge related to climate change issues. • They prepare Assessment Reports that can then be ratified by IPCC member nations. • These Assessment Reports guide global decision making
A 2.7 – 6.3 Celsius degree increase is equivalent to a 4.7 – 11.3 Fahrenheit degree increase
Sea level rise predictions • Sea levels could rise as much as 1-2 meters by 2100 according to some models
Uncertainties with sea level rise • High level of uncertainty with upper range of sea level rise due to range of future scenarios • Uncertainty arises because dynamics of melting ice are poorly known • Sea levels will rise unevenly over the globe due to ocean currents and wind patterns • Storm surges may interact with sea level changes to create unprecedented immersions of the coast
Colored bars represent modeling scenarios. Each represents a different kind of future in terms of carbon dioxide emissions, economic growth, and changes in culture that might impact the pace and intensity of climate change.
Supraglacial lakes on Greenland may enhance calving of ice via basal lubrication when meltwater from surface descends through moulins. However, water underneath ice sheet can eventually form river channels which decrease basal lubrication.
Global issues arising from melting of ice sheets: slow sea level rise Subsidence Adaptive capacity
Responses to sea level rise • Depend upon adaptive capacity • Not all countries would be able to preempt or slow rising sea levels • Armoring the shore • New York City • Venice and MOSE • Netherlands, London • Relocating people • Tuvalu
Tuvalu and the uneven politics of sea level rise • Tuvalu has contributed little to sea level rise • The prime minister of Tuvalu, EneleSopoaga, says talk of relocating people to avoid the impact of sea level rise is self-defeating and should end. Relocation is utopian and inappropriate. • Difficult for small island countries to access the funds for mitigation and adaptation to climate change.
Climate refugees Issue is not only that people will be displaced, but accompanying these movements will come political instability and more debate and conflict over where these people can be relocated.
IPPC position on extreme weather events • Tropical cyclone maximum wind speeds are likely to increase • Droughts events as well as heavy intense rainfall events will increase in frequency • Attribution of single extreme events to anthropogenic climate change is challenging. • Rarity of extreme events limits making the statistical linkage to global warming difficult
IPCC position on extreme weather events • Losses reflect socioeconomic factors more than any big upswing in the number of extreme weather events • More people in vulnerable areas: more property: more wealth: more damage • Impacts of weather events also dependent upon social factors, often related to history and issues over class and race. • These issues need to be addressed more than any scientific decision on the extent extreme weather events are caused by global warming
Hurricane Katrina • Losses due to social vulnerability arising out of legacy of race, class, and the lack of investment in addressing resilience of coastal protective structures
SupertyphoonHaiyan in Philippines (Nov 7, 2013) • Leyte Island (right) has 1.5 million people • 5200+ deaths • Sustained winds of 190-195 mph, gusts of 235 mph • Strongest tropical storm ever to make landfall. • 4.3 million displaced
SupertyphoonHaiyan • Lack of funding from rich nations that are responsible for most of the carbon dioxide enrichment of the atmosphere • Funding would be used to reduce vulnerability and increase adaptive capacity • Five typhoons per year in the Philippines
