1 / 18

William. M. Lapenta and Jordan Alpert Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP

William. M. Lapenta and Jordan Alpert Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP. Numerical Weather Prediction: Science Serving Society. Presentation Outline. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction Why NOAA Conducts Operational Numerical Weather Prediction

beata
Download Presentation

William. M. Lapenta and Jordan Alpert Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. William. M. Lapentaand Jordan AlpertEnvironmental Modeling CenterNOAA/NWS/NCEP Numerical Weather Prediction: Science Serving Society

  2. Presentation Outline The National Centers for Environmental Prediction Why NOAA Conducts Operational Numerical Weather Prediction Near-term NCEP Model Development Plans Growing use of NWP Information Data Dissemination: NOAA Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS)

  3. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction CPC NHC NCO OPC HPC EMC SPC AWC SWPC

  4. NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate, Weather, and Ocean Products Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts, and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. Aviation Weather Center Space Weather Prediction Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Weather Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Storm Prediction Center National Hurricane Center Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert, and preferred partner for environmental prediction services

  5. Global Observing System High Performance Computers Data Assimilation, Modeling and Post Processing The NOAA Operational Modeling Enterprise Everything you read, see or hear about weather, climate and ocean forecasts is based on numerical prediction Three Major Components of the Numerical Prediction Enterprise…. NOAA Science Serving Society….

  6. NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Supports the Agency Mission Lead Time and Accuracy! • Numerical Weather Prediction at NOAA • Required for agency to meet service-based metrics • National Weather Service GPRA* Metrics (* Government Performance & Results Act) • Hurricane Track and Intensity • Winter Storm Warning • Precipitation Threat • Flood Warning • Marine Wind Speed and Wave Height • Operational numerical guidance: • Foundational tools used by government, public and private industry to improve public safety, quality of life and make business decisions that drive US economic growth 6

  7. Seamless Suite of NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Systems Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Benefits Spanning Weather and Climate Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Months • Climate Forecast System • North American Ensemble Forecast System 2 Week • Global Ensemble Forecast System • Global Forecast System • Global Dust 1 Week • Short-Range Ensemble Forecast • Wave Ensemble Days • Waves • Global Ocean • North American Mesoscale • Bays • Space Weather • Fire Wx • Regional Hurricane • (HWRF & GFDL) • Storm Surge Hours • Rapid Refresh • Tsunami • Whole Atmosphere • HRRR • NMME Minutes • Dispersion (smoke) Health Aviation Recreation Ecosystem Agriculture Commerce Hydropower Environment Maritime Fire Weather Life & Property Energy Planning Reservoir Control Emergency Mgmt Space Operations 7

  8. Numerical Guidance Suite Execution on the Operational NOAA Supercomputer 24-h Snapshot 20 August 2012 Number of Nodes High Water Mark 2010 CFS NAM GEFS GFS SREF 12 18 00 06 00 Time of Day (UTC) 8

  9. Computing Capability “Reliable, Timely and Accurate” • Current • IBM Power6 • 74 trillion calculations/sec • 27.8 million model fields/day • Primary: Gaithersburg, MD • Backup: Fairmont, WV • Guaranteed switchover in 15 minutes • Next Generation • IBM iDataPlex Intel/Linux • Primary: Reston, VA • Backup: Orlando, FL • 178 trillion calc/sec • Go-live date expected on 16 July 2013 Posted within15 min TOC retrieved within 15 min 2011

  10. Looking Forward… NCEP Global Systems Into 2015

  11. National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) Project • Facilitated by the NOAA Climate Test Bed • NMME as a Modeling Test-Bed • Seasonal to Interannual Time Scales • Predictability Research: e.g., South East US Drought • Model Evaluation and Development • Initialization Strategies: e.g., Land, Ocean • Fosters interaction between research and operations • Provides experimental guidance products to Climate Prediction Center • Participating Organizations: • University of Miami - RSMAS • National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) • Center for Ocean--‐Land--‐Atmosphere Studies (COLA) • International Research Ins7tute for Climate and Society (IRI) • Canadian Meteorological Centre (Soon) • NASA – GMAO • NOAA/NCEP/EMC/CPC • NOAA/GFDL • Princeton University • University of Colorado (CIRES Data are available at: http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.Models/.NMME/

  12. NAM Implemented 18 October 2011 NEMS based NMM Parent remains at 12 km Multiple Nests Run to ~48hr ~4 km CONUS nest ~6 km Alaska nest ~3 km HI & PR nests ~1.5-2km DHS/FireWeather/IMET possible Rapid Refresh Scheduled implementation 20 March 2012 WRF-based ARW Use of GSI analysis Expanded 13 km Domain to include Alaska Experimental 3 km HRRR NCEP Mesoscale Modeling for CONUS: WRF-Rapid Refresh domain – 2010 RUC-13 CONUS domain Original CONUS domain Experimental 3 km HRRR

  13. Convective Scale NWP: High Impact Weather 1.3 KM NMM Moving Nest applied to 29 June 2012 Derecho Simulated maximum composite radar reflectivity • Initialized with RAPv2 analysis • 12km parent domain with 1.3km moving nest • Nest motion prescribed • Output every 10 minutes • Supports NOAA WoF and WRN initiatives • Ongoing development: • Nest movement based on phenomena of interest • 2-way nesting for hurricane applications • Computationally efficient

  14. Role of NWP in the Forecast Process • Coordinated forecast guidance requires: • Following weather events with long lead times from Global models • Regional and mesoscale for localized severe weather • Prediction and warnings for High impact events • Challenging in the absence of adequate real time observational networks in developing countries • Deterministic ensemble prediction systems: • Dynamical downscaling • Statistical adjustment generate the needed information • Application of uncertainty information

  15. NCEP Scientific Developments Impacts on Life, Property and Commerce • NCEP serving as a global center in support of the Severe Weather Forecasting Development Project (SWFDP) since 2006 • African Desk represents NCEP in the SWFDP • Provides access to NCEP global and regional data and products • Offers professional development training to weather forecasters as part of the US contribution to the WMO VCP • Trained 33 meteorologists from 23 countries across Africa in weather forecasting and in NWP since 2006. • Implemented a website to provide access to NCEP NWP guidance • Meets the needs and requirements of the forecasters in Africa • Extends globally as part of an outreach to the international community • Model development benefits from global customer feedback

  16. Overview – What is NOMADS • Need for Climate and Weather model output data • At WFO’s, and Regions, University and Institutional research, NOAA and other scientist’s. effort is wasted on data receipt and format issues with not enough infrastructure to collaborate. • NOMADS is a distributed data service for format independent access to climate and weather models and data. • Servers with services for Users in WFO’s and elsewhere to get data. • Apps to Slice, Dice and Area subset model output packed binary data sets • Slice across the complex dimensions of model output file matrix. • NOMADS serves data. Display is done by the user (client)

  17. Data Distribution: NOMADSNOAA Operational Model Archive and Distribution System • Users: constrained queries or use own programs to get select data • Commercial packages such as IDL, MATLAB and freeware analysis and display software such as GrADS • NCEP server data sets appear as local files on the users workstation • Only the requested data that is needed gets transferred conserving band width • Unpacking, and organizing data across the separate packed binary files is done by aggregation on the server • Results in the best performance possible from server hardware and firmware 17

  18. Summary • Thoughts on numerical weather prediction: • Operational NWP systems increasing in resolution and complexity • Applications continue to evolve • Demand continues to increase as do the data volumes produced • Requires effective sharing of data between global and regional centers • Data Dissemination and NOMADS • A digital archive and real time data of NOAA’s operational weather models • Integrator of common web services infrastructure to support the discovery, access and transport of data and model ensemble data service dissemination • Unified Access Framework approach to data interoperability • Metadata descriptions and format independent file access, no registration and no fee • The transfer of appropriate data to where it is needed in useable form is key to making relevant forecasts

More Related