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getting the green light:

benjamin
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getting the green light:

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    1. Getting the Green Light:An Environmental Assessment of Today’s Passenger Vehicles James Kliesch American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy

    3. Why be concerned? Every 2 seconds in this country, a new vehicle is purchased Every other one of those is a light duty truck (pickup, minivan, SUV), typically with higher tailpipe emissions and lower fuel economy U.S. passenger vehicles consume ~125 billion gallons of gasoline each year.

    4. Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) continue to grow

    5. How do you address consumption & emissions? One way: promote the manufacture and purchase of clean, efficient vehicles.

    6. ACEEE’s Green Book® Consumer guide, produced annually since Feb 1998 7th edition (model year ‘04) released 2/10/04 Available at www.GreenerCars.com

    7. GreenerCars.com Three main aspects to the website: Popular Tables (Greenest, Meanest, Best-in-Class) General consumer info on vehicles and the environment, how to buy green, etc. Database of all MY2000-2004 vehicles/configurations (approx. 6,200 listings), and their “Green Scores”

    8. What Determines a Vehicle’s Green-ness? Fuel Economy Affects overall GHG emissions, plus non-regulated tailpipe pollutants (ex. SOx, N2O) Affects upstream emissions Tailpipe Emissions A vehicle’s emission standard specifies quantity of CO, HC, NOx, PM emitted Embodied Emissions (to lesser degree)

    9. Emission Standard Primer California LEV I ULEV I LEV II ULEV II SULEV II PZEV Federal Tier 2 bin 11 Tier 2 bin 10 … Tier 2 bin 5 ... Tier 2 bin 2 Tier 2 bin 1

    10. Select Tier 1 and Tier 2 Full Useful Life Exhaust Emission Standards

    11. Green Vehicles Have... High Fuel Economy Low Tailpipe Emissions Generally, what are those today? Hybrid-electric vehicles Fuel efficient gasoline vehicles that meet stringent emission standards CNG vehicles

    12. Mean Vehicles Have... Low Fuel Economy Bare-minimum Tailpipe Emissions Generally, what are those today? Large SUVs Large pickup trucks Performance-oriented sports cars Diesels (interesting case, because high FE)

    13. What a difference a half-decade makes...

    14. Greenest VehiclesModel Years 2000 & 2004 Model Year 2000 GM EV1 Nissan Altra EV Honda Civic GX Honda Insight Toyota RAV4 EV Toyota Camry CNG Ford Electric Ranger Chevy Metro Toyota Echo Nissan Sentra CA Mitsubishi Mirage Honda Civic HX Model Year 2004 Honda Civic GX Honda Insight Toyota Prius Honda Civic Hybrid Toyota Echo Nissan Sentra Honda Civic HX Mazda 3 Toyota Corolla Hyundai Elantra Scion xA Honda Civic

    15. Then again...

    16. Meanest VehiclesModel Years 2000 & 2004 Model Year 2000 Chevy Suburban Dodge Ram 2500 Ferrari Maranello Chevy Silverado Ford Excursion Dodge B2500 Van Chevy K2500 Pickup Cadillac Escalade GMC Yukon Denali Toyota Land Cruiser Ferrari 456M Land Rover Range Rover Model Year 2004 Volkswagen Touareg Land Rover Range Rover Ford Excursion Dodge Ram 1500 Lexus LX 470 Toyota Land Cruiser Hummer H2 GMC Yukon XL K2500 Chevy Suburban K2500 Toyota Sequoia Lamborghini Murcielago Land Rover Discovery Ser. II

    17. Top Stories of Model Year 2004 (1) Federal Tier 2 and California LEV II tailpipe emission standards go into effect. Greater #’s of SULEVs & PZEVs -- cleanest emissions levels of gasoline vehicles ever On the whole, modest improvement federally, although standout models exist

    18. Increasing Number of SULEV and PZEV Nameplates

    19. Top Stories of Model Year 2004 (2) Hybrids continue to be a big story New Toyota Prius, now midsize car, gets 3rd highest overall score, and highest rating of gasoline powered sedans (meets PZEV/Tier 2 bin 3 emissions; FE: 60/51) Mild hybrid GMC Sierra Hybrid/Chevy Silverado Hybrid (FE: 19 mpg hybrid vs. 17 mpg conventional)

    20. The Growth of Hybrid-Electric Vehicles MY2000 Honda Insight MY2001 Toyota Prius MY2003 Honda Civic Hybrid MY2004 Toyota Prius (New) GM Silverado/Sierra Hybrid MY2005 and beyond high-profile hybrids Ford Escape HEV Lexus RX400H Toyota Highlander Honda Accord Saturn VUE Rumored Honda Odyssey

    21. HEV Sales Figures/Estimates Today: ~40,000 annual 50% Prius 47% Civic Hybrid 3% Insight 2007: ~500,000 annual

    22. Top Stories of Model Year 2004 (3) Overall, FE continues to decline Most recent confirmed information shows combined car/truck fuel economy at lowest level since 1980 Due to high sales of large SUVs and pickups These market segments have been aggressively pursued by import companies (i.e., not just a Big 3 problem)

    23. Passenger Car/TruckFuel Economy Trends (Hellman and Heavenrich 2003)

    24. Improvements in Low-Fuel Economy Vehicles are Critical 14 mpg --> 16 mpg (a 14% improvement) Saves 134 gallons annually 35 mpg --> 51 mpg (a 46% improvement) Saves 134 gallons annually

    25. SUVs on the Rise(J.D. Power and Assoc. 2003)

    26. The Changing SUV Segment(J.D. Power and Assoc. 2003)

    27. Reason For Entry/Luxury SUV Growth: Crossover Vehicles

    28. Are Crossovers Environmentally Friendly? Eco-friendliness depends on use: Is it a greener alternative for ski trips to mountains? Perhaps. Can you save the planet by using it to zip around town? No. Eco-friendliness depends on vehicle: Pontiac Vibe? Yes. Infiniti FX45? No.

    29. What Lies Ahead?

    30. Vehicle Technology Crystal Ball Near-Term (Present-2010) Continued improvement of gasoline-powered vehicles Release of new hybrid vehicles Continued deployment of an alternative technologies portfolio Room for diesel?

    31. Near-Term (Present-2010) Continued improvement of gasoline-powered vehicles Lightweight materials use; engine operation (EGR, VVT, etc.); transmission improvements (CVT); improved OBD Seen today in Honda Civic, Nissan Sentra CA, Honda Accord PZEV, Ford Focus PZEV, others

    32. Near-Term (Present-2010) Release of new hybrid-electric vehicles Ford Escape HEV Lexus RX400H Toyota Highlander Honda Accord Saturn VUE Others: Chevrolet Equinox (2006), Malibu (2007)

    33. Near-Term (Present-2010) Continued deployment of an alternative technologies portfolio Alt fuel vehicles, primarily in fleet use (at least initially) Electric minicars Test deployment of fuel cell vehicles

    34. Near-Term (Present-2010) Room for diesel? Numerous questions remain about the viability of significant light duty diesel penetration

    35. Diesel Car and Light Truck Retail Sales, 1970-2001

    36. Technology Costs Health Impacts Regulatory Constraints Fuel Quality Technical Developments Consumer Attitudes

    37. Vehicle Technology Crystal Ball Mid-Term (2015-2030) Stronger presence of hybrid-electric vehicles Introduction of fuel cell vehicles

    38. Vehicle Technology Crystal Ball Far-Term (2030 and beyond) Stronger presence of fuel cell vehicles Need time to develop cell technologies and production techniques Need time to address dual-conundrum of (1) using hydrogen and dealing with storage/infrastructure, or (2) using liquid fuel (such as methanol) and dealing with processing

    39. Thank You James Kliesch American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy 1001 Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite 801 Washington, DC 20036 (202) 429-8873 jkliesch@aceee.org

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