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BSc Forensic Computing

BSc Forensic Computing. Project Ideas. Check your idea. E-mail to Giles for checking, changing if you want: giles.oatley@sunderland.ac.uk. CIS205 Forensic Statistics subjects.

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BSc Forensic Computing

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  1. BSc Forensic Computing Project Ideas

  2. Check your idea • E-mail to Giles for checking, changing if you want: • giles.oatley@sunderland.ac.uk

  3. CIS205 Forensic Statistics subjects • Go through each of the forensic analysis subjects, or the lab technology presentations (chromatography, spectrography.. etc) • If any of them are interesting.. • do a project related to them

  4. CIS201 ideas • Spatial statistics • Lots of room for development here • choose any of the metrics and develop them, • e.g. correlated walk analysis (next crime prediction) was especially dodgy • Social network analysis • New developments in: • Small world/ scale free/ geographic networks • Tie in with ‘kml’ and GoogleEarth • Cyber crime • Ask George, he has lots of ideas

  5. CIS303 and CIS302 ideas • Lots of new subjects • Choose one you are interested in and want to learn more about • Crime data mining • Association - Clustering – Prediction • Logic Programming • Case-Based Reasoning • Bayesian probability • Data Processing • XML • Link Discovery • Relational Data Mining • Graph-Based Data Mining • Linguistics and Text Mining • Image analysis I

  6. Online datasets • There are LOTS of online available data • Make sure you grab the references etc., to the data as soon as you find it, as web-based sources quickly move/ vanish • Just search in Google with: • <my_crime_type> dataset • The following slides have some examples

  7. Online datasets • Geospatial data • CRIMESTAT datasets: • http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/CRIMESTAT/download.html • (Check out the new ‘Bayesian Journey to Crime module’ – if you’d been quicker, you could have written that..) • Crime Mapping Tutorial datasets: • http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/NACJD/cmtutorial.html

  8. Online datasets • Digital crime conference ‘competition’ datasets • (Ask George)

  9. Online datasets • Geocommons USA ‘state-level’ data • http://www.geocommons.com/ • E.g Burglary • http://www.geocommons.com/data_set/show/3981 • E.g. Arson • http://www.geocommons.com/data_set/show/3979 • E.g. Identity theft • http://www.geocommons.com/data_set/show/1951 • UK Census data, plus maps, through ‘Athens’ • http://metadata.nbii.gov/portal/server.pt

  10. Online datasets • Terrorism • Lots available, e.g. • Mark Harrison: Terrorism Data, Warwick University • http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/staff/faculty/harrison/terrorism/ • TWEED terrorism dataset • http://www.uib.no/People/sspje/tweed.htm

  11. Online datasets • Volume crime, e.g. Burglary

  12. Online datasets • Firearms • UK National Statistics (summary) • http://www.statistics.gov.uk/STATBASE/ssdataset.asp?More=Y&vlnk=6025

  13. Lots of areas • Choose anything from the following slides/ subjects and develop a computer program to help • Just find an area you are interested in, and discuss it with someone • (taken from CIS205 introductory lecture)

  14. forensischinstituut.nl • http://www.forensischinstituut.nl/NFI/en/Typen+onderzoek/Items/Forensic+statistics.htm • R&D: • Random testing of narcotics, hairs, textile and environmental investigation • Development of an uncertainty analysis for reconstructing a speed of impact in traffic accidents • Classification and individualisation of earprints, traces of scratches and imprints, faces and spectra • Use of databases • Interpretation of evidence: • Combining conclusions (with uncertainties) in sub-investigations into a summarised final conclusion • Interpretation and conclusions in DNA identification • Investigation into the use of probability scales in the formulation of conclusions • Use of Baye’s theorems and methods in legal evidence • Uncertainties that are created in the interpretation and analysis of photos and video images

  15. (ENVIRONMENTAL) ANALYSIS (WASTE) MATTER BUILDING MATERIALS AND EMISSIONS DIGITAL TECHNOLOGY DNA ANALYSIS DNA PARENTAGE TESTING DOCUMENT EXAMINATION DRUGS ANALYSIS ECOLOGICAL AND HUMAN TOXICOLOGY EMBEDDED SYSTEMS ENVIRONMENTAL CRIME SCENE INVESTIGATION ENVIRONMENTAL FORENSICS EXAMINATION OF SURFACE MARKS, IMPRESSIONS AND SHAPES FIBRES AND TEXTILE INVESTIGATION FINGERMARK IDENTIFICATION FORENSIC EXAMINATION OF HAIR FORENSIC EXPLOSIVES INVESTIGATION FORENSIC INVESTIGATION OF FIRE FORENSIC PHOTOGRAPHY FORENSIC STATISTICS GUNSHOT RESIDUE INVESTIGATION HANDWRITING EXAMINATION ILLICIT DRUG PRODUCTION IMAGE ANALYSIS AND BIOMETRY INVESTIGATION OF THE TECHNICAL CAUSE OF FIRE, AND ANALYSIS OF TECHNICAL APPLIANCES AND MATERIALS INVESTIGATION OF WEAPONS AND AMMUNITION MACHINE AND PRINTER TYPE ANALYSIS OPEN SYSTEMS PATHOLOGY SOIL, WATER AND FERTILISERS SPEECH AND AUDIO ANALYSIS TOXICOLOGY TRAFFIC ACCIDENT INVESTIGATION VEHICLE IDENTIFICATION INVESTIGATION Forensic subjects

  16. Forensic science • The analysis of traces of evidence (such as body fluids, glass fragments, footprints and drugs) left at the scene of a crime by the criminal, victim or others. • This evidence may be used subsequently to either implicate or exonerate a person suspected of committing that crime, or just to gain further insight into the incident.

  17. Evidence • But forensic science doesn't just involve identifying traces of evidence – sometimes it isn't obvious just what a piece of evidence really is. • Other important questions that need to be answered are just how the evidence came to be at the crime scene, where did it originally come from, and who left it there. • This suggests a natural role for statistics, as these questions can typically only be answered in terms of probabilities. • So it is not surprising that the primary task of forensic statisticians is to evaluate any evidence found at a crime scene, so that this evidence can be appropriately presented to a jury in court.

  18. DNA profiling • The advent of DNA profiling in the 1980s brought a big change in the way the legal system viewed quantitative data. • Now a quantitative approach is being requested in many areas, far removed from the original area of DNA profiling. • The earlier research and development work is being applied and further work is being done to tackle the increasingly more complex cases which arise in bringing a sound statistical approach to the assessment of evidence.

  19. Probability • For an appropriate evaluation of evidence, a comparison of probabilities of the evidence under two different propositions is required. • These propositions are usually those put forward by the prosecution and the defence. • There are advanced statistical methods for doing this (based on likelihood ratios or Bayes' factors) • Much theoretical work has been done in the development of these methods. • Calculations based on them might sometimes be fairly straightforward, though it also often turns out that there are non-standard issues to consider. • Fallacies

  20. Example of casework • DNA profiling evidence for biological material such as bodily fluids. • Statistical and population genetics to assess the importance of such evidence. • Never just one sample of DNA and one suspect. • Relatives may be involved • Suspect may have been identified by DNA profile database search • Mixture of body fluids from more than one person. • More advanced statistical methods are required in such situations

  21. Sampling problems • Another role of a forensic statistician relates to sampling problems and determination of sample size. • Examining a consignment of similar-looking items • Often not practical to examine every item. • Financial or health grounds • E.g. set of CDs, some of which are thought to contain pornographic material. • How many items should be examined on a sampling basis? • As few CDs as is commensurate with a good description of the proportion of the CDs which are illicit. • The sample size determination is really just a quality control problem; there are UN Guidelines where the problem concerns drugs.

  22. Expert witnesses • Communicate results effectively to non-statisticians. • Forensic statisticians are often required to attend court cases as "expert witnesses". • This involves reporting calculated probabilities, or other statistical measures, to the jury, and explaining to them how the calculations were performed. • Choose careful wording • Don’t "lead" the jury into a decision on guilt or innocence of a defendant

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