Michael Newnham Systematic Innovation

1. The Materials Entrepreneur Predicting the Future – Owning the Future Michael Newnham Systematic Innovation

2. Background

3. Background - Our Approach • The Systematic Innovation Methodology is based on the following findings: - • Innovations happen by solving a contradiction • There are only a few tens of ways to solve a contradiction • Innovations follow a specific evolutionary pattern and are predictable • Someone else has already solved your problem This is Important, because....

4. …Getting it Right is Hard – the odds are stacked against you: - * Most innovations fail before they reach the market * The majority of those innovations that do reach the market will also fail * Most innovations are delivered late, over-budget or to a lower quality than was originally planned

5. Academic research: every $100 invested will on average return $3 (gross) in revenue. As a Global Average, in the UK the return would be just over $1

6. To Improve The Odds:- • Find the “White Space” – where few potential competitors are active • Solve a Contradiction - provide a step-change ‘wow’ that allows customers to better achieve their desired outcomes • Find and exploit a convergence or conflict between two or more consumer/market trends The more of the three that we can tap into, the greater the likelihood of innovation success. The biggest winners (iPod, Google, Facebook, eBay, Ryanair, Danone, etc) did all three things.

7. Innovation Winners:- 1) Deliver more PERFECT solutions than the competition = more useful FUNCTIONS (outcomes) and/or fewer negatives 2) Make at least one discontinuous, step-change shift in either technology, route to market, business model, or market = solve at least one CONTRADICTION 3) Have a compelling (‘wow’) STORY to tell 4) Recognise that the initial idea is both critical and 1% of the effort required to succeed. And manage accordingly. 5) Have all 5 of:

8. Three Strategies to Think about -

9. We’ll Look at the First Three • Solve a Contradiction • Exploit a Trend • Look for The Ideal Final Result • Deliver the Function better • Add A New Function • Protect Yourself

10. Where To Innovate – Defining The Overall Space ‘Blue Ocean’ Find & Exploit A Trend Solve A Contradiction

11. Where To Innovate – Defining The Overall Space ‘Blue Ocean’ Find & Exploit A Trend Solve A Contradiction

13. * All systems contain contradictions * The large majority of our improvement strategies assume ‘compromise’ and ‘trade-off’ as the only way of dealing with contradictions * Powerful solutions are the ones that don’t accept the trade-offs * There are ways of ‘eliminating’ compromise * We should actively look for contradictions C O N T R A D I C T I O N S

14. The breakthrough solution approach A Problem Like Mine A Generic Solution My Specific Problem My Specific Solution

15. Four Problems: • Reduce tyre-wear on large aeroplanes • 2) Prevent leaching of toxins from PVC during blood • transport through tubing • Increase yield from a chemical process • How do we improve knowledge retention in teams • when there is never enough time to teach everything?

16. One Problem: • Reduce tyre-wear on large aeroplanes • Thing we would like to improve: Loss of Substance • Thing stopping us: Speed • 2) Prevent leaching of toxins from PVC during blood • transport through tubing • Thing we would like to improve: Loss of Substance • Thing stopping us: Speed • Increase yield from a chemical process • Thing we would like to improve: Loss of Substance • Thing stopping us: Speed • How do we improve knowledge retention in teams • when there is never enough time to teach everything? • Thing we would like to improve: Loss of Substance • Thing stopping us: Speed

19. Contradiction Matrix ‘Contradictions’ is all about identifying and eliminating design compromises Parameter Which Gets Worse 1,4,7 Parameter To Be Improved Length Weight Area Force etc Inventive Principles

20. 1. Weight of moving object • 2. Weight of stationary object • 3. Length of moving object • 4. Length of stationary object • 5. Area of moving object • 6. Area of stationary object • 7. Volume of moving object • 8. Volume of stationary object • 9. Shape • Amount of Substance • Amount of Information • 12. Duration of action - moving object • 13. Duration of action - stationary object • 14. Speed • Force/Torque • 16. Use of energy by moving object • 17. Use of energy by stationary object • 18. Power • 19. Stress/Pressure • 20. Strength • 21. Stability • 22. Temperature • Illumination Intensity • 24. Function Efficiency • 25. Loss of Substance • 26. Loss of Time • 27. Loss of Energy • 28. Loss of Information • Noise • Harmful Emissions • Object Generated Side Effects • Adaptability/Versatility • Compatibility/Connectability • 34. Ease of Operation • Reliability • Repairability • Security • Safety/Vulnerabilty • Aesthetics • 40. Object affected harmful effects • 41. Manufacturability • 42. Accuracy of manufacturing • Automation • Productivity • System Complexity • Control Complexity • 47. Ability to Detect/Measure • 48. Measurement Precision

21. 40 Inventive (Business) Principles 1. Segmentation 2. Taking Out 3. Local Quality 4. Asymmetry 5. Merging 6. Universality 7. ‘Nested Doll’ 8. Counterweight 9. Prior Counter-Action 10. Prior Action 11. Prior Cushioning 12. Remove Tension 13. ‘The Other Way Round’ 14. Curvature 15. Dynamics 16. Slightly Less/Slightly More 17. Another Dimension 18. Vibration 19. Periodic Action 20. Continuity of Useful Action 21. Hurrying 22. ‘Blessing in Disguise’ 23. Feedback 24. Intermediary 25. Self-Service 26. Copying 27. Cheap/Short Living 28. Another Sense 29. Fluidity 30. Thin & Flexible 31. Holes 32. Colour Changes 33. Homogeneity 34. Discarding and Recovering 35. Parameter Changes 36. Phase Transitions 37. Relative Change 38. Enriched Atmosphere 39. Calmed Atmosphere 40. Composite Structures

22. All products and services progress along predictable, discontinuous, paths Exploit a Trend – “Trends of evolution”

23. Where To Innovate – Defining The Overall Space ‘Blue Ocean’ Find & Exploit A Trend Solve A Contradiction

24. PRODUCT/PROCESS TRENDING - S-Curves IFR X ‘VALUE’ = IDEALITY = Benefits/(Costs + Penalties) Disruptive Innovation occurs here ‘final’ GEN 2nd GEN….. 1st GEN TIME

25. Evolution Occurs Through Discontinuous Shifts… ‘VALUE’ = IDEALITY = Benefits/(Costs + Penalties) 3rd GEN….. What Does These Jumps Look Like? 2nd GEN 1st GEN TIME

26. Looking For Patterns:

29. Trend : Dynamization Immobile Single Joint Multiple Joint Liquid Gas Field Completely flexible

30. Trend : Dynamization Immobile Single Joint Multiple Joint Liquid Gas Field Completely flexible

31. Breakthrough Evolution Trends Mono-Bi-Poly (Similar) – Interface Mono-Bi-Poly (Various) – Interface Mono-Bi-Poly (Inc.Diff.) – Interface Damping Sense Interaction Colour Interaction Transparency Customer Purchase Focus Market Evolution Design Point Degrees of Freedom Boundary Breakdown – Interface Trimming Controllability Human Involvement Design Methodology Reducing Energy Conversions INTERFACE Smart Materials Space Segmentation Surface Segmentation Object Segmentation Macro to Nano Scale – Space Webs and Fibres Decreasing Density Asymmetry Boundary Breakdown - Space Geometric Evolution (Lin) Geometric Evolution (Vol) Dynamisation SPACE TIME Action Co-ordination Rhythm Co-ordination Non-Linearity Mono-Bi-Poly (Sim) – Time Mono-Bi-Poly (Var) – Time Macro to Nano Scale – Time

32. Select a product/process/component we want to analyse • Compare to any 6 trends – ‘where are we on the trend?’ • Suggest ideas for where the product will evolve in the future using these trends

33. Trend : Space Segmentation Capillary and porous System System with a cavity System with multiple Cavities System with active Capillaries Monolithic System

34. Trend : Space Segmentation Monolithic system Capillary and porous system System with a cavity System with multiple cavities System with active capillaries Evolutionary Potential: X 0 1 2 3 4 5

35. Evolutionary Potential Segmentation X 0 1 2 3 4 5 Repeat for other trends… Dynamisation Dimensionality etc

36. Trend : Surface Segmentation Smooth surface Smooth surface (Surface with protrusions in 2D) Rough surface (Surface with protrusions in 3D) Rough surface with active Elements

37. Trend : Object Segmentation Highly segmented solid monolithic Solid granules Solid Powder Monolithic solid Segmented solid Monolithic Liquid Segmented Liquid Aerosol Gas Plasma Field Vacuum

38. Trend : Macro To Nano macro milli micro nano pico femto, etc 102 10 100 10-1 10-2 10-3 10-4 10-5 10-6 10-7 10-8 10-910-10 10-11 10-12 10-13

39. Trend : Webs & Fibres Homogenous Material Material With 2D fibres 3D Fibres + Active Elements 3D Fibres

40. Evolution Potential Rhythm Co-ordination X 0 1 2 3 4 5 Repeat for other trends… Dynamisation Dimensionality etc

41. Discontinuous Evolution Of Wind Turbines 1990 Hollow composite, 2D aerodynamics, then Q3-D aerodynamics

42. So We Know What Happened In The Past, Now Can We Predict What Will Happen In The Future? All of this space here represents the future evolution potential in the whole wind-turbine industry… …now repeat for every other industry and product and process

43. Turbine – Component Hierarchy super-system LSB Assembly Vane Casing Bucket Disc Diffuser Inner Hub Mid Tip Outer ring ring Root Hub Mid Tip Shroud Fixing LE Lam Tran Turb TE

44. LSB – Component Hierarchy super-system LSB Assembly NGV Casing Bucket Disc Diffuser Inner Hub Mid Tip Outer ring ring Root Hub Mid Tip Shroud Fixing LE Lam Tran Turb TE

45. For each component/sub-component: • Which evolution ideas seem to have the most potential? • What do you like about those ideas? • What are the ‘yes, but’s?’ • Solving the yes, but’s - What you do is…

46. Self-Cleaning - Lotus Effect Lotus leaf - micro-structure Lotus leaf - water droplet repulsion Low Friction - Shark-Skin and ‘Nano-Turf’

47. The Untapped Potential is In The White Space of the “Evolutionary Diagram If you know the evolutionary paths to take – and why!! – then you can predict – and OWN – the future

48. Trends Of Evolution is a powerful tool in IP protection. But remember.....

49. Most Patents Never Pay Back The Cost of Filing

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