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Director’s Update Spring 2008 COPC Col John Murphy Commander

Director’s Update Spring 2008 COPC Col John Murphy Commander. Distribution Authorized to U.S. Government Agencies and their Contractors only. Overview. Operational Backup Summary NCEP - SPC, AWC, SWPC NESDIS - VAAC METSAT Processing Initiatives WRF Operational Transition

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Director’s Update Spring 2008 COPC Col John Murphy Commander

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  1. Director’s UpdateSpring 2008 COPCCol John MurphyCommander Distribution Authorized to U.S. Government Agencies and their Contractors only

  2. Overview • Operational Backup Summary • NCEP - SPC, AWC, SWPC • NESDIS - VAAC • METSAT Processing • Initiatives • WRF Operational Transition • Ensemble Forecasting • GIS Products and Services • Preparation for NPOESS and other METSAT data • New Building Move Update

  3. Operational Backup

  4. Operational Backup NCEP - Storm Prediction Center/Aviation Weather Center Last AWC real world backup Apr 07; SPC - Mar 07 Backup support transitioning from 2 WXG to 15 OWS (1 WXG) Space Weather Prediction Center (bi-directional backup) One real world backup in the last 12 months Requirements, key products, customers and needed redundant data/comm paths identified Direct ingest of GOES Solar Data: In testing now, operational by end of 2008 Pending SWPC visit to AFWA Site survey for an alternate forecast center; possible alternate archive Develop forecast backup strategies and areas for collaboration NESDIS – Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) Real world backup Apr 08 due to VAAC comm outage (3 hours)

  5. METSAT Update

  6. Slide removed in OFCM posted copy

  7. DMSP Update • F18 • Planned replacement for F16 in mid-morning orbit • Will fly reworked SSMI/S (main reflector coating) for more accurate collections • Scheduled for 29 June launch on Atlas V booster • Mission Readiness Review on 27 May • Line Removed from OFCM Posted Copy

  8. AFWA-FNMOC DMSP Delivery Timing Delivery performance for Apr 2008 (F13 –F17) 100 Week Ending 90 6 Apr 80 13 Apr 20 Apr 70 27 Apr 60 Numbers of files delivered 50 40 30 20 10 0 1:00 1:10 1:20 1:30 1:40 1:50 2:00 2:10 2:20 2:30 2:40 2:50 3:00 3:10 3:20 3:30 3:40 3:50 4:00 4:10 4:20 4:30 4:40 4:50 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00+ Files Late = 11.4% 38% (83/219) of late products > 5 minutes = Multiple Orbit Playbacks Delivery Time Range = 1-15+ minutes Threshold: 100% Delivered, Not > 2% Late Late = > 5-Minutes for single orbit playback, > 10-Minutes for multiple orbit playback

  9. Initiatives

  10. WRF TransitionBaseline Schedule

  11. 45km Configuration 15km 5km Nest

  12. 45km Configuration Oceanic Windows 15km 5km Nest

  13. Slide removed in OFCM posted copy

  14. Limited Area OCONUS Domains In DoD Coordination May 08 *Notional AFWA/FNMOC 15 and 20 km Window Configuration DoD Joint*

  15. Ensemble Modeling Two critical pathfinder projects for operational migration to global and limited area NWP ensembles DoD led Joint Ensemble Forecast System (JEFS) NWS/NCEP led North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) Lessons learned on methods, calibration, post processed products, and data exchange are critical to shape execution detail for this CONOPS and follow-on NUOPC efforts Some of the issues we must address via JEFS/NAEFS: Common methods for calibration and post processing What ensemble members/roll-up results are basis for data exchange? How much value is added vice costs to ensemble mesoscale nests? Can downscaling of lower resolution nests be more cost effective? What are minimum shared end result products? 15

  16. Ensemble Modeling JEFS is DoD Pathfinder Joint Mesoscale Ensemble (JME) • East Asian Theater • 20 members, 15/5km, 60/30hr, 2 cycle/day • JGE supports init./lat. boundary conditions • Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter I.C.s • Multimodel (WRF-ARW, COAMPS) • Varied model physics configurations • Perturbed surface boundary conditions • Southwest Asia Theater • 10 members, 15/5km, 60/30hr, 2 cycles/day • JGE supports init./lat. boundary conditions • Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter I.C.s • WRF-ARW Only • Varied model physics configurations • Perturbed surface boundary conditions 5KM 5km 5KM 5KM 5KM 5KM 15KM 15KM 15KM Products: Being tailored to support heavy precipitation and winds plus point location advisory/warning criteria for the 17 OWS  Products: Being tailored to support dust impacts and point location advisory/warning criteria at request of 28 OWS

  17. GIS Products & Services • Implementing a phased approach • Build Web Map Service (WMS) capability for initial product offering (IOC Jan 08) • Add Web Feature Service (WFS) capability for selected suite of METOC information • Support Google Earth customers with combination of: • Selected KML based information services • Convertible XML based information web service supported by Joint METOC Broker Language (Collaborative effort with NGA underway)

  18. Sample GIS ProductsTemperature, Radar, Satellite Layer

  19. Sample GIS ProductsRelative Humidity, Radar Layer

  20. METSAT Initiatives Preparations for NPOESS • NPOESS Early Centrals Interface • Ongoing risk mitigation effort between AFWA and NPOESS IPO • Supports testing for AFWA internal applications • Potentially improves the quality of the delivered IDPS by identifying issues early-on • IDPS development/test resources on-site to support AFWA’s software development process • IDPS software installed on AFWA equipment • AFWA staff training completed Nov 07 • Independent testing commenced Dec 07 • Canned test data (~2TB) transferred from replicated IDPS • Datasets are roughly 100 x legacy volume

  21. New METSAT Data • NOAA 18 Blind Orbits • Available to AFWA mid-Jun 08 • DMSP F18 • Same sensor suite as F17 • Orbit time to replace F16 • Launch scheduled for 29 Jun 08 • METOP • Receiving 1km resolution AVHRR imagery data. • Global fine resolution especially valuable for snow products • Operational in mid-Jun 08 • Primary issue is 120+ min latency • MODIS • Similar to NPOESS in size, format, and data flow • Available operationally via DATMS-U mid-Jun 08 • While testing data began queuing at NESDIS due to server congestion

  22. Building Move Update

  23. Building Move Update Systems Migration • UPS, CRACs, PDUs installed in computer room • Stage I migration begins 5 May, complete Sep 08 • Includes systems tied to personnel moves • Stage 2 migration begins January 09 • Includes majority of AFWA enterprise production systems • System migration schedule tied to planned/budgeted hardware refreshes • Will stand up new hardware in Bldg 185 and decommission old hardware in current facility as refreshes occur • Nearly all systems will be migrated by end of 2010

  24. Building Move Update

  25. Backup 25

  26. DMSP Update • Flight 17 (F17) • Primary operational spacecraft in early morning orbit • SSMI/S released from Cal/Val, in operations - 31 March • Awaiting release of SSULI and SSUSI from Cal/Val • Second OLS IR decontamination anticipated in Sept (H20 vapor) • Attitude control gyros continue anomalous behavior • Gyro # 3 off Jun 2007; • Engineers to turn off Gyro # 1, May 08 due to Bias Shifts • MIMU turned on June 2007 – Will become primary for attitude control input; installed for Flight 17 & 18 to ensure operational performance • F16 • Primary operational spacecraft in mid-morning orbit • Attitude control maintained by S-Gyro software and gyro #3 • Gyro bias shifts put spacecraft in basic pointing mode – data has minor geolocation errors but still operationally useful

  27. DMSP Update Secondary flights F13 passed 13 year operational milestone on 24 March 08 Continues to provide global imagery and microwave (SSM/I) on two remaining recorders F15 provides additional hi-res imagery Gyro issues similar to F16 RADCAL Beacon operation rendering SSM/I unusable 27

  28. Current GIS Products Available via WMS • Forecast Data • Temperature • Dew Point • Sea Level Pressure • Wind • Direction • Speed • Precipitation • Type • Accumulation • Tropical Storm • Track • Probability Cone • CONUS Watch/Warning • Cloud Cover • Snow Depth • Observed Data • Temperature • Dew Point • Sea Level Pressure • Wind • Direction • Speed • Ceiling • Visibility • Precipitation • Type • Accumulation • Radar Reflectivity • Lightning Strikes • Cloud Cover • Active Storm Corridors

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