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Wine Industry Outlook, 2004 …. LAWRIE STANFORD Manager - Information & Analysis November 2004. Question ... number 1. Are we an industry that is basically in net balance over the medium-term? … recognising nevertheless - short-term oversupply,
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Wine Industry Outlook, 2004 …. LAWRIE STANFORD Manager - Information & Analysis November 2004 Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation
Question ... number 1 Are we an industry that is basically in net balance over the medium-term? … recognising nevertheless - short-term oversupply, - and potential medium-term undersupply? Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation
Question ... number 2 Is the Australian wine industry in a new era … requiring new approaches to business? Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation
To develop points-of-view on these questions • Recent influences • Where’s the market at? • Demand issues/Supply issues • Future balance scenarios • New era? Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation
Some precedents to the current situation ... Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation
Sales slow in 2003-04 … Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation
Big 2004 harvest … Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation
Future demand for winegrapes dampened? <White <Red 2003 survey 2004 survey Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation
Current market … Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation
Current market … Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation
Lower price-point opportunities in ST ... • Super value category expansion in the US • Back-filling lower price points in the UK • The German opportunity • Scandinavian interest in bag-in-box • Supermarket consolidation • Wine surpluses Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation
Demand prospects ... Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation
Demand prospects ... Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation
Domestic vs Export ... Exports Domestic sales Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation
Overseas market prospects ... MARKETGROWTH PROSPECT United States Significant United Kingdom Significant Canada Strong Germany Strong Sweden Good Ireland Good Japan Good Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation
Supply ... Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation
Precedents to planting, 2004 survey … <Red White> Warm Inland ‘Cool climate’ Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation
Variety demand 2009, warm inland … ? ? Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation
Variety demand 2009, ‘cool climate’ … Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation
New planting on-stream … CC Reds WI Reds CC Whites WI Whites Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation
Balance scenarios ... Annual growth; 20%, 1%, 2%, 2%, 3%, 3% Annual growth; 6%, 16%, 10%, 11%, 13%, 10% Annual growth; 11%, 7%, 5%, 4%, 3%, 2% Annual growth; 9%, 8%, 6%, 5%, 4%, 3% Growth; 20% … marginally over-supplied ST, marginally under-supplied MT … it won’t happen!!! Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation
A new era? Stocks-sales gap Stocks-to-sales ratio Winegrape price Domestic phase Growth into export markets New phase? Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation
Summary ... • A new operating environment? • An industry in balance? • Short-term challenges continue • High-price ‘cool climate’ fruit struggling • Lower-cost warm inland fruit sought • but at a price • Future shortages? Future strategies? • depending on your point-of-view about demand Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation
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