ELMO RF aiheryhmän visio 7.11.2003

1. ELMO RF aiheryhmän visio 7.11.2003 • RF-aihealue • trendit & keskeiset tulevaisuuden oletukset 2008-2013 • alan SWOT-analyysi

2. ELMO 7.11.2003 -Aktiivikomponentit/IC-teknologia, -Suunnittelutyökalut, -Antennit (mobiiliterminaali/tukiasema), -Suodattimet (mobiiliterminaali/tukiasema), -Integroidut komponentit, -RF-ID, -mm-wave technology- RF-testing- RF-manufacturing Nokia Research Center TTY Cetedev APLAC Solutions Oy VTT TTE TEKESFiltronic LK Oy VTT ELE

3. IC/active Vision 2008-2013 • Wireless access RF-implementation key competitive factor for multiradios. Likely to see various combinations of GSM/GPRS/EDGE/WCDMA/CDMA2000 in multiple bands. The cellular access is complemented with WLAN (IEEE802.11a/b/g), BT, RFID, GSP/Galileo, DVB-H, UWB, AM, FM etc. non-cellular systems. • Managing complexity and design flow/testing becoming key issues in multiradio transceiver implementation. Multi-antenna (diversity & MIMO) and on-chip tunability increase RF complexity further. -> the level of design abstraction needs to be raised (e.g., AMS-VHDL), and tool integration (substrate, circuit, system) needs to be guaranteed. Tool & testing challenge! • Semiconductors industry for wireless is changing: only few Handset OEM develop in-house ICs. Value, technology control and innovation shifting to chip-set/platform vendors. Winning business model tbd. • Terminal receiver: direct conversion architecture key enabler. Digital CMOS technology finally coming to RF: cost structure complicated, but it can provide cost benefits in high-volume transceivers with significant digital portion. Modified architectures might be needed to tolerate the high dynamic range with low supply voltage circuits, Digital CMOS enables single-chip modems. • Terminal transmitter: high efficiency in wide power range needed, also in non-constant envelope modulations (EDGE, WCDMA, CDMA2000). Switch-mode power amplifiers have potential for radical efficiency improvement. Credible proof-of-concept still missing. Envelope Restoration and RF synthesis key approaches • RF packaging: integrated passive technologies vs. high-quality passive options on RF IC: cost/size optimization.

4. IC/active Vision 2008-2013 • Emphasis on power consumption has grown very rapidly due to usage time & heat issues. Operation time is a key competitive factor for the 3G terminals. Currently, bad battery life time is damping interest toward 3G in Japan. • Battery capacity growing at below 10% - annual rate. Will not solve challenges with rich content applications in digital convergence terminals. In order to reduce the power consumption improvements needed in all technology domains: RF, BB, user interfaces, SW. Much work to be done in energy-efficient system architectures, smart energy management concepts, and tools supporting low-power design. Tool Challenge! • At the network side development focuses on low-cost solutions for base stations; the optimum integration level and business model are yet to be proven for the RF implementation in the low production volumes • The Linear power amplifier dominates the cost of WCDMA base stations. The low efficiencies make the mechanics bulky and expensive. Efficiency improvement possible with digital pre-distortion and switch-mode power amplifiers compared to the traditional feed-forward transmitters. • The set 4G requirements (wide coverage 100 Mbit/s) stretch the RF performance; research challenge to enable low cost and low power terminals. • mm-wave applications also getting into more commercial use (besides military applications): automotive (radars), satellite communications, communications links, security cameras,…

5. IC/active Vision 2008-2013 • Digital circuits: The speed of digital circuits will increase and more functionality can be handeled in one chip. Given the same clock frequency and componenet count, power consumption will decrease. On the other hand, the effect of interference will increase and the power consumption is dominated by leakage currents and by driving the signal (I/O) lines.  Need for multiprocessor architectures /processor matrices.  Later (beyond 2013) nanotechnology (one-electron transistor). • A/D interface will shift towards higher frequencies.  Higher demands for A/D, D/A converters. The speed of future technologies has to be about ten-fold in order to enable DSP at 1…2 GHz range. This will then eliminate the analog filter need that is nowadays more economical to implement. • Analogs: As the line widths decrease, also the operation frequencies will increase as well, enabling broadband integrated analog designs. However, power consumption does not necessarily decrease (may even increase) due to lower operating voltage. Also dynamic range will decrease. It should also be noted that passive components will not scale down along with active components  may lead to separation of digital / analog roadmaps (no single-chip solutions). LTCC, PWB, thin/thick films • Silicon still dominating in terms of line width. Other techologies are evolving rapidly specially for high frequency applications.

6. integrated passives Vision 2008-2013 THICK-FILM AND LTCC TECHNOLOGIES • Wider value ranges and better tolerances are needed • Inductors • Fine-line screen-printing, • Photo-patterning of conductors and tapes, ferrite materials • Capacitors • high-K and thin LTCC tapes • Design tools • electrical models need to be developed -> time-to-market can be decreased THIN-FILM TECHNOLOGIES • Reduction of costs made by • increase of substrate size, development of exposure systems • increase of number of layers , transition of semiconductor process chemicals -> finer line widths PRINTED CIRCUIT BOARDS • smaller tolerances are needed • precise controllable pastes with high resistivity to replace discrete components • low-value inductors by developing patterning techniques in HDI substrates • high-K materials material & process know-how

7. design tools Vision 2008-2013 As of today, graduate component modelling has been succesful way to go on. However, when the line widths are getting smaller the characteristics start to deviate from the existing models. The change is seen as a bigger step than the developement path so far.  Current methods and tools become somawhat obsolete, which means that strong focus on these tools is needed. • The RF design is facing big challenges in the future as its productivity is not increasing at the same rate as the trend is in general analog or digital designs. Moreover, it should be possible to take RF design as an integral part into the top down design methodology where technology partition decisions (what parts are done with software, what with hardware etc.) are made. This means that good parameter-based nonlinear system level and hardware description language representations should exist of "all" relevant RF parts, including nonlinear devices like amplifiers, oscillators and mixers or linear parts like filters, antennas etc. • Perhaps the biggest challenge in getting RF truly integrated into the normal electronic design flows is the rather special skill set of RF engineers as most of the RF design takes place in harmonic or frequency domain, and traditional analog and digital flows are time domain based. Current software is quite mature to simulate each of these parts (eg. board and antenna in frequency domain, processor in time & event domain) separately, but seeing the big picture is still a huge challenge for any software, but in particular for the user of this software.  Needs good cooperation between software and measurement systems. Mergers or niche RF routes..

8. MS antennas Vision for 2008-2013 • Low cost, small size, flexible design are must, lifetimes getting shorter. Antenna markets growing because of non cellular systems • Environmental and health issues (SAR) important (design & validation) • Adaptive (arrays) / tuneable (software) / smart antennas available • Lots of data downloading on terminal => reception quality important (diversity, MIMO) • New Antenna technologies & materials coming • Advanced ceramic/ferrite materials • Semiconductors (FE integration, also audio and other functionality) • New methods to enable effective 3D designs • Antenna may also integrate into front-ends or part of mechanics material & process know-how

9. BS antennas Vision for 2008-2013 material & process know-how • Antenna markets growing because of WCDMA • Multi-band antennas dominating markets • Adaptive antennas available • New Antenna technologies & materials coming • Dielectric resonator antennas • MIMO antennas • Coated and conducted plastics • Conductive inks • Electrical phase shifter and tilt mechanism in use • Electrically adjustable beam-widths and down-tilt • Reliability and environmental issues crucial • Antennas not only antennas. RF parts from base station are integrated into antenna unit to decrease electrical losses and to improve cost effectiviness • Direct antenna market will decrease due to the integrated RF units. Base station modules will become standardized • Smart antenna arrays in markets • Distributed antenna gain element technology in use • New phase shifter technologies available for higher power levels • MEMS and Ferro-electrical phase shifter

10. Vision 2008-2013 MS filters • High volume devices with strong price erosion • Dominating technologies SAW, FBAR/BAW • Integrated filter banks availaible to support multiband solutions • New technology development: • tunable and software configurable filters, technology leap needed • Size is critical  Integration onto RF FE-electronics • Also other than cellular systems available in mobile terminals: • Bluetooth, WLAN etc. • Filtering needed for all systems • Technologies FBAR/BAW, MEMS, Semiconductor • Filters mostly integrated • Filterbank type solutions widely used • Software configurable filters available • Need for filtering decreased due to digitalisation

11. Vision 2008-2013 BS filters • Quantitative wireless and filter total market will not grow substantially. WCDMA share will be over 50% from total market. Financial market growth nonexistent because of price erosion. • Multimode ceramic resonator filters are prevailing or at least in same level with Comb-line resonator filters • Plastics materials available for filters; coated and conducted plastics in filter parts • New base station antenna line concepts will need new kind of filters • Adjustable band filters, Programmable filters, Multi-band filter banks • FBAR filters entering as Intermediate filters • Reliability and environmental issues crucial • RF parts from base station are integrated into antenna unit to decrease electrical losses and to improve cost effectiviness • Power handling requirements decreased size of filters decreased • Direct filter market will decrease due to the integrated RF units. Base station modules will become standardized • Optical data transfer between base station modules prevailing • Zero-IF receivers in use  no need for intermediate filters • New filter technologies will become available • MEMS, Ferro-electrics, Superconductive filters (HTS), Waveguide technology • MSM filters (Magnetic Shape Memory), FBAR filters common in Pico cell front-end filters material & process know-how

12. Vision 2008-2013 RFID RF ID APPLICATIONS DRIVEN BY AMBIENT INTELLIGENCE • ACCESS CONTROL • ELECTRONIC CASH • IDENTIFICATION & AUTENTHICATION • PACKAGING: INVENTORY & PRODUCT INFO • CARGO: TRACKING & IDENTIFICATION • DATA COLLECTION • FREIGHT, LOGISTIC • DEFENCE • FARMING: ANIMAL IDENTIFICATION • CAR INDUSTRY: IGNITION SECURITY, IMMOBILIZATION SYSTEMS • RENTAL, LIBRARIES Enabled by: • Increasing computing power • Ubiquitous sensing • Short range wireless communication • Integration on all levels MANY OF THESE APPLICATION AREAS CAN EASILY EXCEED 100M UNITS / YEAR

13. Vision 2008-2013 RFID • Tag for 1 cent --> replace printed bar codes --> 1E12 units / year • 32 bit tag for 10 cents --> 1E9 tags per year for airline baggage • Moore’s law until 2020 • Samsung, STM & TI already in RFID. No clear standards, just thoughts. • At the moment lower frequencies are used, but UHF systems will replace them (robustness, reliability, ease of use) • Extremely wide usage surpassing even mobile phones • low-power RF FE ANT package • broad application scope • Will need also a cellular in conjunction  RF ID + PDA will be a succes story

14. SWOT Strengths • the large and the experienced RF know-how, analog and mixed teams • wide experience in various IC technologies and design flows, ICT supplier chain • good contacts btw industry & universities • Technical education in schools and universities on a good level • Education policy • Excellent theoretical and practical know-how • Strong integration background/know-how • Creativity, open willingness to experiment new things • Pioneering solutions at application and component level • Mass production automation level & know-how very high • Competitive engineering costs • sensor industry and sensor user industry • Companies already in RFID business

15. Weakness: SWOT • Still too little collaboration between different disciplines • System knowledge not wide • unsystematic monitoring of new technologies; limited access to technologies for prototyping. Prototype lead times are long. • weak software product business know-how • lack of electronics design education • lack of system level RF-education • In Europe there is not even a medium scale EDA company (USA dominating). • High labour costs in mass production • Not enough resources on new technology / material research • Finland is not located close to main market areas => need to have operations globally • Long term research, • Lack of operator market knowledge and of antenna testing capabilities • Narrow technology base • Industrialization of new technologies low • New technology development low • No large scale IC-chip industry (?) • weak R&D tradition, little taking part on global standardisation work

16. Opportunities: SWOT • wide selection of target systems and applications • wide selection of design tools • ability to conduct high-risk research projects • Globally well-recognized position in RF & AMS Ics • New technology areas that require new kind of design methodology/techniques • Increase of bandwidth  still need for "traditional" RF • SystemC: Open source-initiative • Evolution of digital electronics to higher frequencies will give raise to new needs of RF know-how • Possibility to still make pioneering new solutions • Growing markets when non cellular systems are integrated onto mobiles • Highly integrated RF modules, standardized interfaces  from customer specific to application specific products  enlarged markets, WCDMA business will change the supplier chain (OEM will supply turnkey networks/sites) • Strong know-how of semiconductors & integration • Study of new filtering applications  technology leap • Tag & reader fabrication with very high volumes • Tag software & active sensors

17. Threats: SWOT • Insufficient resourcing in research oriented projects • Changing business environment: ODM => innovation shifting to semiconductor vendors • Evolution of digital electronics to higher frequencies will exterminate need of RF know-how  part of digital/analog design • IPR’s • designs copied in cheap labour countries • Competitors strengthen via acquisitions => lot of resources and possibility to invest on research • Volume component manufacturing abroad in low cost countries • Digital design evolving to higher frequencies • "Too big business", not to be able to keep up with the pace • Insufficient investments on R&D • Regulatory, "big brother is watching"