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Southern hemisphere forecasts

Southern hemisphere forecasts. Meteorology 415 Fall 2012 Contest 3 December 11, 2012. Brasilia, Brazil. Satellite imagery. Surface Map. Enhanced IR. Meteogram. Observations.

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Southern hemisphere forecasts

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  1. Southern hemisphere forecasts Meteorology 415 Fall 2012 Contest 3 December 11, 2012

  2. Brasilia, Brazil

  3. Satellite imagery

  4. Surface Map

  5. Enhanced IR

  6. Meteogram

  7. Observations 3:16 PM 69.8 °F - 62.6 °F 78% - 1.9 mi WNW 10.4 mph - N/A Rain , Thunderstorm Light Thunderstorms and Rain SPECI SBBR 111716Z 30009KT 3000 -TSRA FEW015 BKN036 FEW040CB 21/17 Q1 015 • SBBR 111700Z 33013KT 9999 3000W -RA BKN036 FEW040TCU BKN070 21/ 19 Q1016 = • SBBR 111716Z 30009KT 3000 -TSRA FEW015 BKN036 FEW040CB 21/17 Q1 015= • SBBR 111900Z 00000KT 8000 -TSRA SCT036 FEW040CB BKN100 22/18 Q1 015 = • SBBR 112000Z 29003KT 9999 FEW036 FEW040TCU SCT100 22/18 Q1014 R ETS= • SBBR 112100Z 04002KT 9999 FEW036 SCT070 22/19 Q1014 = • SBBR 112200Z 20006KT 9999 FEW036 BKN080 22/19 Q1015 = • SBBR 112300Z 19004KT 9999 FEW030 BKN100 22/19 Q1015 =

  8. Observations • SBBR 112300Z 19004KT 9999 VCTS FEW030 FEW040CB BKN100 22/19 Q10 15 = • SBBR 120000Z 23004KT 9999 VCTS BKN030 FEW040CB BKN070 22/19 Q10 17 = • SBBR 120100Z 31003KT 9999 SCT030 SCT080 21/19 Q1017 = • SBBR 120200Z 35001KT 9999 SCT030 SCT070 21/19 Q1017 = • SBBR 120300Z 27002KT 9999 VCTS SCT030 FEW040CB SCT080 21/18 Q10 17 = • SBBR 120400Z 19008KT 9999 -RA VCTS FEW011 BKN030 FEW040CB 21/19 Q1016 • SBBR 120500Z 29003KT 9999 FEW011 SCT030 FEW040TCU 20/18 Q1015=

  9. Verifications

  10. Scores - Survey

  11. Scores - Career

  12. Up Close and Personal

  13. Lessons Learned • It’s the rainy season in Brasilia, so max temperatures are modified by cloud cover and typical afternoon-evening thundershowers. • In the Tropics, strong wind gusts with convection are uncommon as are low ceilings and reduced visibility- EXCEPT during an intense shower • The prevailing dewpoints are a good estimate of the minimum temperature

  14. Buenos Aires

  15. Buenos Aires

  16. Satellite/Radar Imagery

  17. Satellite imagery

  18. Surface / Upper Air Map

  19. Summary Weather

  20. Observations • SAEZ 111800Z 27007KT 180V310 CAVOK 29/15 Q1004= • SAEZ 111900Z 25005KT 170V270 CAVOK 29/14 Q1004= • SAEZ 112000Z 29003KT 250V340 CAVOK 29/13 Q1003= • SAEZ 112100Z 33006KT 270V360 CAVOK 29/14 Q1003= • SAEZ 112200Z 32004KT 290V350 CAVOK 28/13 Q1003= • SAEZ 112300Z 33004KT CAVOK 27/15 Q1003= • SAEZ 120000Z 32005KT CAVOK 25/14 Q1004= • SAEZ 120100Z 34004KT CAVOK 25/14 Q1004= • SAEZ 120200Z 36004KT CAVOK 24/14 Q1005= • SAEZ 120300Z 36004KT CAVOK 24/14 Q1004= • SAEZ 120400Z 36005KT CAVOK 23/14 Q1004= • SAEZ 120500Z 36003KT CAVOK 22/15 Q1004= • SAEZ 120600Z 00000KT CAVOK 19/15 Q1004= • SAEZ 120700Z 00000KT 8000 17/14 Q1003= • SAEZ 120800Z 35002KT 7000 NSC 17/14 Q1003= • SAEZ 120900Z 36003KT 8000 NSC 20/15 Q1004= • SAEZ 121000Z 36005KT 330V040 8000 22/15 Q1004= • SAEZ 121100Z 01005KT 340V040 8000 24/16 Q1004= • SAEZ 121200Z 01009KT 320V040 CAVOK 26/13 Q1004= • SAEZ 121300Z 01009KT 320V050 CAVOK 28/14 Q1003= • SAEZ 121400Z 36010KT 300V050 CAVOK 29/14 Q1003= • SAEZ 121500Z 33009KT 300V030 CAVOK 30/15 Q1002= • SAEZ 121600Z 33008KT 290V350 CAVOK 31/14 Q1002= • SAEZ 121700Z 34006KT 300V020 CAVOK 31/15 Q1002= • SAEZ 121800Z 30009KT 270V360 CAVOK 32/17 Q1001=

  21. Verifications

  22. Scores - Career

  23. Up Close and Personal

  24. Pago Pago NSTU 130150Z 09022KT 5SM -SHRA BKN014 OVC035 27/26 A2945 RMK PK WND 09033/40 SLP973 T02720260= NSTU 130318Z 08013KT 2SM TS +SHRA BKN014CB OVC035 27/26 A2944 RMK OCNL LTGIC ALQDS TSB18 ALQDS CB ALQDS= NSTU 130250Z 06012KT 2SM +SHRA BKN014 OVC035 27/26 A2945 RMK PK WND 09034/30 SLP973 60045 8/8// T02710256 56012= NSTU 130318Z 08013KT 2SM TS +SHRA BKN014CB OVC035 27/26 A2944 RMK OCNL LTGIC ALQDS TSB18 ALQDS CB ALQDS= NSTU 130318Z 08013KT 3200 TS +SHRA BKN014CB OVC035 27/26 A2944 RMK ONIL LTGIC ALQDS TSB18 ALQDS CB ALQDS= NSTU 130357Z 09010KT 10SM TS -SHRA BKN014CB OVC035 27/26 A2943 RMK OCNL LTGIC ALQDS TSB18 ALQDS CB ALQDS SLP968 T02690255= NSTU 130452Z 09018KT 7SM -SHRA FEW003 SCT012 BKN038 OVC080 27/25 A2945 RMK TSE52 SLP975 T02680254= NSTU 130550Z 08013KT 5SM -SHRA SCT012 BKN036 OVC080 27/26 A2946 RMK SLP978 60095 8/82/ T02700258 10273 20268 51005=

  25. Lessons Learned • Short term forecasting of dry, warm weather is safe in the early summer in the mid-latitudes • Light winds and dry air will lead to a larger than usual diurnal variation in temperatures • This is a good case of where 0 and 100 work to your favor in EVENTS and PRECIP Amt.

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