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Social Consequences of Transition

Social Consequences of Transition. Vladimir Gligorov. Content. Risks and skills Flexibility and social safety nets Migration Inequality Public finances. GDP and employment growth in NMS and NIS Index 1995 = 100. Source: INDEUNIS research results.

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Social Consequences of Transition

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  1. Social Consequences of Transition Vladimir Gligorov

  2. Content • Risks and skills • Flexibility and social safety nets • Migration • Inequality • Public finances

  3. GDP and employment growth in NMS and NIS Index 1995 = 100 Source: INDEUNIS research results

  4. GDP, employment, productivity 2000-20062000 = 100 With approximately five years delay, developments similar to those in the NMS Candidates countries (HR, MK, TR) Source: wiiw Database

  5. GDP, employment, productivity 2000-20062000 = 100 With approximately five years delay, developments similar to those in the NMS Potential candidate countries (AL, BA, ME, RS) Source: wiiw Database

  6. Employment trends in SEE1990=100

  7. Unemployment in SEEunemployed in % of active population, average, LFS

  8. Long-term unemployment in SEEunemployed - 12 months and more, in % of total unemployed

  9. Youth unemployment rates in SEE, LFS 15-24 years, in % Notes: Note: Albania registration data.

  10. Flexibility • Relatively flexible labour markets • Declining social safety nets

  11. EPL index, employment, unemployment in the SEE and peer countries (1) - employment rate, (2) - unemployment rate, in per cent respectively. Sources: see above.

  12. Inequality • Diverse • In Central Europe similar to average in the EU • In others higher inequality • Effects of market power • Effects of crisis

  13. Development of income inequality in Central Europe, Baltic States, SEE and CIS, 1989-2006unweighted averages of Gini coefficients (income based)

  14. Income inequality in world regions unweighted averages of Gini coefficients (income based), 2003 55 Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America 50 China 45 South Asia East Asia Russia 40 CIS Middle East USA Gini coefficient & North Africa 35 SEE 30 Western Europe Central Europe & Baltics 25 Source: UNU-WIDER: World Inequality Database Version 2.0b , own calculations.

  15. Distribution of income & source of income R = 0.27 Correlation of functional distribution and inequality in transition countries CE & Baltics, SEE and CIS 50 2002 45 y = -0.40x + 48.75 2 40 35 Gini coefficient 30 25 20 15 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Compensation of employees, in % of GDP Sources: AMECO database, CIS STAT database, UNU-WIDER: World Inequality Database Version 2.0c .

  16. Role of labour market institutions

  17. Migration • Very high outflow from some countries • Significant numbers of refugees in some regions • Brain drain and return migration • Functionings and capabilities

  18. Public sector

  19. Public sector

  20. Pensions spending

  21. Pensions

  22. Health

  23. Education

  24. Conclusions • Social impact large but often positive after the initial transitional recession • Social differentiation increasing, but not unusual for development • Crisis effects may be significant

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