Technical Approach Problem approach:

1. Title:Deceptive Detection Strategies: Optimizing the Value of Sensor Information Org/PI:Rutgers University / Paul Kantor and Endre Boros Relevance and Goals Performance and/or operational targets • Separate mathematics from decision making • Empower decision makers to explore alternatives • Sequence up to 12 sensors optimally • Uniqueness and/or transformational impact • Fully integrating optimization, non-linearity, Game Theory • Uniquely separating technical from policy issues • Providing a tool for policy makers to test and explore • Substantial improvement • Incorporating the high uncertainty elements (threat probabilities and costs of failure) in a realistic way • Increasing detection per dollar of screening/ testing/ unpacking -- up to 50% in some low budget situations 1. From: Complex mathematics and models ... 2. To:A usable interface that accepts true data and produces cost-performance curves. Schedule (months) [Phase 3=beyond 2 years] • Transform sensor properties to ROC (1-3) • Incorporate realistic data (2-12+ ongoing) • Index methods for low budgets (1-6) • LP approach independent sensors (1-8) • DP approach, independent sensors (4-12) • (Inspector) Game Theory models (6-12 + Phase 2) • Interdependent sensors (12 + phase 2 and 3) • Spectral profile data (Phase 2 and 3) • Image analysis data (Phase 3) • Sensor distribution game (Phase 3) • Interface software (throughout) Team • Rutgers University: SCILS/RUTCOR • Paul Kantor, Distinguished Professor Information Science • Endre Boros, Professor and Director, RUTCOR • Noam Goldberg; Jonathan Word (Graduate Students) Technical Approach • Problem approach: • Powerful mathematical techniques; optimization; real and simulated data • Current status • Rigorous LP model; 7 sensors sequenced; Screening Power Index for sensor policy evaluation • Key challenges and/or risks • Political: Non-acceptance of optimal stochasticity • Data: Access to data of realistic complexity • Translational: Making results transferable and accessible to persons with access to the real data