A Macroeconomic Theory of the Open Economy

1. 14 A Macroeconomic Theory of the Open Economy

2. SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR LOANABLE FUNDS AND FOR FOREIGN-CURRENCY EXCHANGE • We saw in chapter 13 (Open-Economy Macroeconomics: Basic Concepts) that: S = I + NCO • There, the equation was an accounting identity • In this chapter, the equation represents equilibrium in the Market for Loanable Funds: • supply of loanable funds is S, • demand for loanable funds is I + NCO. • At the equilibrium (real) interest rate, supply equals demand

3. The Market for Loanable Funds • The supply of loanable funds comes from national saving (S). • The demand for loanable funds comes from domestic investment (I) and net capital outflows (NCO).

4. The Market for Loanable Funds • The supply of loanable funds, S, is directly related to the real interest rate. • A higher real interest rate encourages people to save and raises the quantity of loanable funds supplied. • The demand for loanable funds, I + NCO, is inversely related to the real interest rate • A higher real interest rate discourages domestic investment and the net capital outflow to foreign countries • The interest rate adjusts to bring the supply and demand for loanable funds into balance.

5. Supply of loanable funds (from national saving) Equilibrium real interest rate Demand for loanable funds (for domestic investment and net capital outflow) Equilibrium quantity Figure 1 The Market for Loanable Funds Real Interest Rate Quantity of Loanable Funds

6. Net Capital Outflow • The key factor that affects net capital outflow is the domestic real interest rate • We saw earlier that NCO is inversely related to the real interest rate

7. 1. Equilibrium in the market for loanable funds determines the real interest rate 2. That real interest rate then determines net capital outflow Net capital outflow Net capital outflow is negative. is positive. Figure 3 How Net Capital Outflow Depends on the Interest Rate Real Interest Rate Net Capital 0 Outflow

8. The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange • The two sides of the foreign-currency exchange market are represented by NCO and NX. • NCO represents the difference between the purchases and sales of capital assets. • NX represents the difference between exports and imports of goods and services.

9. The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange • In the market for foreign-currency exchange, U.S. dollars are traded for foreign currencies. • For an economy as a whole, NCO and NX must balance each other out, or: NCO = NX

10. The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange • The price that balances the supply and demand for foreign-currency is the real exchange rate.

11. The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange • The demand curve for foreign currency is downward sloping because a higher exchange rate makes domestic goods more expensive. • The supply curve is vertical because the quantity of dollars supplied for net capital outflow is unrelated to the real exchange rate. • (It is determined by the real interest rate that came out of equilibrium in the market for loanable funds.)

12. Supply of dollars (from net capital outflow, determined earlier) Equilibrium real exchange rate Demand for dollars (for net exports) Equilibrium quantity Figure 2 The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange Real Exchange Rate Quantity of Dollars Exchanged into Foreign Currency

13. The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange • The real exchange rate adjusts to balance the supply and demand for dollars. • At the equilibrium real exchange rate, the demand for dollars (to buy net exports, NX) exactly balances the supply of dollars (to be exchanged into foreign currency to buy assets abroad, NCO).

14. EQUILIBRIUM IN THE OPEN ECONOMY • In the market for loanable funds, • supply comes from national saving and • demand comes from domestic investment and net capital outflow. • In the market for foreign-currency exchange, • supply comes from net capital outflow and • demand comes from net exports. • Net capital outflow links the two markets

15. EQUILIBRIUM IN THE OPEN ECONOMY • Prices in the loanable funds market and the foreign-currency exchange market adjust simultaneously to balance supply and demand in these two markets. • As they do, they determine the macroeconomic variables of national saving, domestic investment, net foreign investment, and net exports.

16. Supply r r Demand Net capital outflow, NCO Supply E Demand Figure 4 The Real Equilibrium in an Open Economy (a) The Market for Loanable Funds (b) Net Capital Outflow Real Real Interest Interest Rate Rate Quantity of Net Capital Loanable Funds Outflow Real Exchange Rate Quantity of Dollars (c) The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange

17. HOW POLICIES AND EVENTS AFFECT AN OPEN ECONOMY • The magnitude and variation in important macroeconomic variables depend on the following: • Government budget deficits • Trade policies • Political and economic stability

18. Government Budget Deficits • In an open economy, government budget deficits . . . • reduce the supply of loanable funds, • drive up the interest rate, • Crowd-out domestic investment, • cause net capital outflow to fall.

19. 1. A budget deficit reduces the supply of loanable funds . . . S B r2 r2 A r r 3. . . . which in 2. . . . which turn reduces increases net capital the real outflow. interest rate . . . S 4. The decrease in net capital outflow reduces the supply of dollars to be exchanged E2 into foreign currency . . . E1 5. . . . which causes the real exchange rate to appreciate. Figure 5 The Effects of Government Budget Deficit (a) The Market for Loanable Funds (b) Net Capital Outflow Real Real Interest Interest S Rate Rate Demand NCO Quantity of Net Capital Loanable Funds Outflow Real S Exchange Rate Demand Quantity of Dollars (c) The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange

20. Government Budget Deficits • Effect of Budget Deficits on the Loanable Funds Market • A government budget deficit reduces national saving, which . . . • shifts the supply curve for loanable funds to the left, which . . . • raises interest rates.

21. Government Budget Deficits • Effect of Budget Deficits on Net Capital Outflow • Higher interest rates reduce net capital outflow.

22. Government Budget Deficits • Effect on the Foreign-Currency Exchange Market • A decrease in net capital outflow reduces the supply of dollars to be exchanged into foreign currency. • This causes the real exchange rate to appreciate.

23. Trade Policy • A trade policy is a government policy that directly influences the quantity of goods and services that a country imports or exports. • Tariff:A tax on an imported good. • Import quota:A limit on the quantity of a good produced abroad and sold domestically.

24. Trade Policy • Because they do not change national saving or domestic investment, trade policies do not affect the trade balance. • For a given level of national saving and domestic investment, the real exchange rate adjusts to keep the trade balance the same. • Trade policies have a greater effect on microeconomic than on macroeconomic markets.

25. Trade Policy • Effect of an Import Quota • Because foreigners need dollars to buy U.S. net exports, there is an increased demand for dollars in the market for foreign-currency. • This leads to an appreciation of the real exchange rate.

26. Trade Policy • Effect of an Import Quota • There is no change in the interest rate because nothing happens in the loanable funds market. • There will be no change in net exports. • There is no change in net foreign investment even though an import quota reduces imports.

27. Trade Policy • Effect of an Import Quota • An appreciation of the dollar in the foreign exchange market encourages imports and discourages exports. • This offsets the initial increase in net exports due to import quota.

28. r r 3. Net exports, however, remain the same. 1. An import quota increases the demand for E2 dollars . . . 2. . . . and causes the real exchange rate to D appreciate. Figure 6 The Effects of an Import Quota (a) The Market for Loanable Funds (b) Net Capital Outflow Real Real Interest Interest Supply Rate Rate Demand NCO Quantity of Net Capital Loanable Funds Outflow Real Supply Exchange Rate E D Quantity of Dollars (c) The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange

29. Trade Policy • Effect of an Import Quota • Real exchange rate appreciates • Imports decrease • Exports decrease by the same amount • Net exports are unchanged • Everything else is unchanged

30. Political Instability and Capital Flight • Capital flight is a large and sudden reduction in the demand for assets located in a country.

31. Political Instability and Capital Flight • Capital flight has its largest impact on the country from which the capital is fleeing, but it also affects other countries. • If investors become concerned about the safety of their investments, capital can quickly leave an economy. • Interest rates increase and the domestic real exchange rate depreciates.

32. Political Instability and Capital Flight • When investors around the world observed political problems in Mexico in 1994, they sold some of their Mexican assets and used the proceeds to buy assets of other countries.

33. Political Instability and Capital Flight • This increased Mexican net capital outflow. • The demand for loanable funds in the loanable funds marketincreased, which increased the interest rate. • The higher interest rate reduced net capital outflow but this decrease was not as large as the increase caused by capital flight. Therefore, NCO increased. • This increased the supply of pesos in the foreign-currency exchange market. • This depreciated (i.e., reduced) the real exchange rate.

34. 1. An increase in net capital outflow. . . r2 r2 D2 3. . . . which increases the interest rate. NCO2 2. . . . increases the demand for loanable funds . . . S2 4. At the same time, the increase in net capital outflow increases the E supply of pesos . . . 5. . . . which E causes the peso to depreciate. Figure 7 The Effects of Capital Flight (a) The Market for Loanable Funds in Mexico (b) Mexican Net Capital Outflow Real Real Supply Interest Interest Rate Rate r1 r1 D1 NCO1 Quantity of Net Capital Loanable Funds Outflow Real S Exchange Rate Demand Quantity of Pesos (c) The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange

35. Summary • To analyze the macroeconomics of open economies, two markets are central—the market for loanable funds and the market for foreign-currency exchange. • In the market for loanable funds, the interest rate adjusts to balance supply for loanable funds (from national saving) and demand for loanable funds (from domestic investment and net capital outflow).

36. Summary • In the market for foreign-currency exchange, the real exchange rate adjusts to balance the supply of dollars (for net capital outflow) and the demand for dollars (for net exports). • Net capital outflow is the variable that connects the two markets.

37. Summary • A policy that reduces national saving, such as a government budget deficit, reduces the supply of loanable funds and drives up the interest rate. • The higher interest rate reduces net capital outflow, reducing the supply of dollars. • The dollar appreciates, and net exports fall.

38. Summary • A trade restriction increases net exports and increases the demand for dollars in the market for foreign-currency exchange. • As a result, the dollar appreciates in value, making domestic goods more expensive relative to foreign goods. • This appreciation offsets the initial impact of the trade restrictions on net exports.

39. Summary • When investors change their attitudes about holding assets of a country, the ramifications for the country’s economy can be profound. • Political instability in a country can lead to capital flight. • Capital flight tends to increase interest rates and cause the country’s currency to depreciate.