Fred Schmude StormWatch Manager ImpactWeather, Inc. fschmude@impactweather

1. 2012 Spring Weather Outlook May Update Fred SchmudeStormWatch ManagerImpactWeather, Inc. fschmude@impactweather.com Fred specializes in hurricane forecasting, severe thunderstorms, winter weather monitoring and forecasting and long-range monthly and seasonal forecasting. He holds a BS in Geology from Texas Tech and a BS in Meteorology from Texas A&M. Fred joined ImpactWeather’s parent company as a meteorologist in 1990.

2. ImpactWeather helps our clients worldwide operate safely, effectively and efficiently in all weather conditions.

3. 2012 Spring Weather Outlook May Update Fred SchmudeStormWatch ManagerImpactWeather, Inc. fschmude@impactweather.com Fred specializes in hurricane forecasting, severe thunderstorms, winter weather monitoring and forecasting and long-range monthly and seasonal forecasting. He holds a BS in Geology from Texas Tech and a BS in Meteorology from Texas A&M. Fred joined ImpactWeather’s parent company as a meteorologist in 1990.

4. Spring Weather Outlook for 2012 • Worldwide water temperature trends (including El Niño risks and effects) • Review of spring tornado and high wind reports • Review of the April temperature & precipitation pattern • May weekly and monthly forecast (find the most vulnerable severe risk areas) May, June and July projected flow pattern & T/P forecast (identify most vulnerable severe risk areas) • Summer outlook, including a brief tropical outlook • Soil moisture and drought outlooks for the spring • Tropics Sneak Preview

6. Colder Water PDO Cold Phase Small Negative IOD Warming Water Developing El Niño?

7. ~+1.3C...Moderate El Niño El Niño La Niña Current (-0.1C)

8. El Niño La Niña

9. Effects of Warming Water in Eastern Tropical Pacific Upper air outflow enhance upper-level wind shear Warmer Water Enhances Thunderstorm Development

10. Forecast ENSO Trends • Initiation of EL Niño by early summer • Likely to peak out in the early part of 2013 • Likely to be moderate in intensity at about (+1.0 to +1.4C)

11. REVIEW Tornadoes, Temperature, Rainfall and Flow Pattern from January thru May 1, 2012

12. Average Trend 2005-2011 Current # Average

14. Projected Precipitation Outlook for Apr-Jun, 2012 Elevated Severe Risk Area Mean Storm Track BEST CHANCE

16. Projection ~1500 2011 2008

17. Current Projection

18. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL! +8 to +16F

19. ABOVE NORMAL! +3 to +6F

20. Projected Temperature Outlook for April, 2012

21. North America April Temperature Anomalies WARMER WARMER

23. WET WET DRY DRY WET WET DRY WET WET

24. WET WET WET DRIER DRIER WET WET DRIER DRIER WET

25. Projected Precipitation Outlook for April, 2012

26. April Mean Flow Pattern Higher Pressure Higher Pressure Lower Pressure Lower Pressure Higher Pressure

27. April Mean Flow Pattern/Temp Overlay

28. FORECAST

29. Weather Trends for May 8th-14th, 2012 Near Normal Mostly Dry Mostly Dry Near Normal +2 to +4F Near Normal UNSETTLED -2 to -4F Mostly Dry +4 to +8F UNSETTLED HEAVY RAIN & FLOODING RISK Mostly Dry +3 to +6F -3 to -6F UNSETTLED STORMY Near Normal -1 to -3F

32. Weather Trends for May 15th-21st, 2012 Near Normal Mostly Dry Mostly Dry Warmer Than Normal Warmer Than Normal Cooler Than Normal UNSETTLED Warmer Than Normal Mostly Dry STORMY Warmer Than Normal Near Normal Cooler Than Normal

33. Projected Temperature Outlook for May, 2012

34. Projected Precipitation Outlook for May, 2012

35. Projected Flow Pattern For May-July, 2012 L H L H H WARMER COOLER Mean Storm Track H L WARMER L Enhanced Severe Weather Risk

36. Projected Temperature Outlook for May-Jul, 2012

37. Projected Precipitation Outlook for May-Jul, 2012 Enhanced Severe Weather Risk

38. Projected Temperature Outlook for July-Sept, 2012

39. Projected Precipitation Outlook for July-Sept, 2012

40. Monitor for Home Grown Storm Gulf/ W Car. Tropics “Sneak Peek” For 2012 • Risk will be lower than normal for a TC strike • However, some very memorable TCs have occurred during +ENSO events • Preliminary estimates call for 10-5-2 Higher Westerly Wind Shear Likely “Negative Factor” COOLER WATER “Another Negative Factor” El Niño

43. Moderate Drought (tan) Abnormally Dry (yellow) Severe Drought (red) Exceptional Drought (dark red)

45. WET SOIL DROUGHT DROUGHT DROUGHT

47. Worldwide weather forecasting and notification 24/7 • Seasonal outlook forecasting • Severe terrestrial weather monitoring and automated notification • Offshore/marine forecasting year-round • Customized weather websites • Direct consultation with a meteorologist • Business Continuity, Employee Resiliency and Response Plan Consulting Webinar Questions: fschmude@impactweather.com More information(877) 792-3220 sales@impactweather.com