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Demographic Trends in Religion

Demographic Trends in Religion. Eric Kaufmann, Harvard University/ Birkbeck-University of London e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk. 2 Aspects of Religion. Power of Religious Institutions over State Individual piety I focus on second aspect – tends to affect the first.

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Demographic Trends in Religion

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  1. Demographic Trends in Religion Eric Kaufmann, Harvard University/ Birkbeck-University of London e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk

  2. 2 Aspects of Religion • Power of Religious Institutions over State • Individual piety • I focus on second aspect – tends to affect the first

  3. Based on affiliation (ie baptism for Christians) • Applying affiliation data to country demographic projections

  4. Church of England Baptisms as % of live births

  5. Broad Trends • Secularization: Catholic and part-Catholic Europe + Canada/Australasia/’blue’ states + southern cone of Latin America + global elite • Stability: Protestant Europe + USA+Hinduism • Resurgence: Islam, Pentecostalism (Asia, Latin America + Global South)

  6. Demography is Key • Inglehart: more are born in religious countries, so make up a larger share of global total. ***Send immigrants to nonreligious countries • Lesthaeghe: once everyone has access to contraception and family planning, values matter more for fertility • Conclusion: Some may become secular, but more will become religiously conservative

  7. Religiosity and Fertility: Europe and USA United States, 2006 (GSS)

  8. Will They Keep the Kids? • Yes • ‘Strict’ religions more successful in inspiring commitment, retaining members • High fertility + high retention = high growth • Hutterites: 400 in 1880, 50,000 today. From .7% to 3.3% of Canadian prairie farm population, 1951-81 • Mormons: now outnumber Jews for those born after 1945

  9. Muslims will grow from 3-5% of W. Europe’s population to region of 12-15% by 2050

  10. Projected Muslim Population of Austria to 2051, 36 Scenarios Source: Goujon et al. 2006

  11. Projected Nonreligious Population of Austria to 2051, 36 Scenarios Source: Goujon et al. 2006

  12. Similar Dynamics in USA

  13. Source: ‘The Moment of Truth’, Ha’aretz, 8 February 2007

  14. Source: WVS 1999-2000. N = 2796 respondents in towns under 10,000 and 1561 respondents in cities over 100,000. Asked in Algeria, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Jordan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Egypt.

  15. Conclusion • Religious – especially conservative religious, have larger families, retain members well • State religious authorities matter more for fertility in authoritarian societies; conservative movements and individuals count for more in democratic ones • Expect a growth in conservative Islam, Judaism and Christianity; Some erosion of moderate religion; Only Catholic Europe will see much secularization

  16. Demographic Trends in Religion Eric Kaufmann, Harvard University/ Birkbeck-University of London e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk

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