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Operational Rate

Operational Rate. Understanding the BAM. Overview. Sampling Formula Weighting Excluded Overpayments Time Period. Sampling. BAM data gathered weekly Sampling program Sample size Results are estimates. The Formula. Nh = Total number of UI payments in the population for batch h.

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Operational Rate

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  1. Operational Rate Understanding the BAM

  2. Overview • Sampling • Formula • Weighting • Excluded Overpayments • Time Period

  3. Sampling • BAM data gathered weekly • Sampling program • Sample size • Results are estimates

  4. The Formula Nh = Total number of UI payments in the population for batch h. vih = Dollars overpaid for the ith case in batch h. xih = Original amount paid/offset for the ith case in batch h. mh = Number of completed sample cases for batch h. H = Number of batches in the range.

  5. The Formula…Simplified Total Amount Overpaid ÷ Total Amount Paid = Rate Overpaid

  6. Extra Factors • Weighted • Computed Weekly • Summed Yearly

  7. Weighting • Based on sample cases • How much weight does each case carry? • Number of cases each week compared to the number of payments in the universe Avg score for men = 5 Avg score for women = 10 Is the average score 7.5? What if there are 100 men in the population and only 50 women? 5*100 + 10*50 / 150 = 6.666

  8. Exclusions • Non-Recoverable Overpayments • Technically Proper Overpayments • Base Period Wage Errors • Work Search • ES Registration • Other Causes • Why? • Recoverable • Reasonably detectable

  9. Time Period • Based on a sample • Need 12 months to get full picture • BAM is current • BAM is a sample, therefore an estimate • Operational Rate • Overpayment rate * Dollars paid in the population • estimated amount of overpayments in the population

  10. BPC • Ties to BPC • (Overpayment/Fraud Unit) • BPC takes time • 6 months to discover (wage detail), investigate and write

  11. Goals and Standards • GPRA target is to establish 52.8% of the overpayments that BAM estimates is out there (FY 2010) • Lower limit 50% • CAP needed if below 50% • Upper Limit 95% • BAM program accuracy suspect • BPC reporting accuracy suspect • CAP needed if over 95% • UIPL regarding target: • http://wdr.doleta.gov/directives/attach/UIPL/UIPL28-09.pdf

  12. Time lines • BAM Operational rate dates • Jan. 1, Year1 through Dec. 31, Year1 • BPC Dates • Jul 1, Year1 through Jun 30, Year2 • WEB site to view your rate yearly (GPRA): • http://www.ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/gpra.asp • WEB site to view your 3 year rate (Core Measure) • http://workforcesecurity.doleta.gov/unemploy/3yr_overpay.asp

  13. Understanding the Website • Column 1 = yearly total of cm4 • Column 2 = Computed Operational Rate • Column 3 = Column 1* Column 2 • $540,341,335 * .0347 = $18,749,844 • Not a perfect match due to rounding • Column 4 = yearly total of 227 OP data • Column 5 = Column 4 / Column 3 • $10,994,408 / $18,759,207 = .58608 Col 5

  14. Review • BAM uses a sample • Overpayments/Amount paid • Weighted to accurately represent the population • Need a complete year of data • Rate includes only overpayments that are recoverable and reasonably detectable • Compare rate to a full year, 6 months later for BPC activity

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