Robust Strategies for Sustainable Energy Supply Klaus S. Lackner Columbia University November 2005

1. Robust Strategies for Sustainable Energy Supply Klaus S. Lackner Columbia University November 2005

2. Energy Land The Central Role of Energy Environment Water Minerals Food

3. Not about limiting access to energy • low cost, plentiful, and clean energy for all

4. Norway USA Russia France UK China Brazil India $0.38/kWh (primary) Energy, Wealth, Economic Growth EIA Data 2002

5. Big Uncertainty • Robust strategies for uncertain development paths • Scope of world-wide industrialization • Will oil and gas run out? – Coal as backstop • Will nuclear energy play a role? – More electricity • Will solar energy get cheap? – Hydrogen, electricity • Will energy efficiency play out? – Potential surprise • Decentralization vs. Concentration – Greenhouse gases • The role of the smaller sources?

6. IPCC Model Simulations of CO2 Emissions

7. Closing the gap With population growth 1% energy intensity reduction Constant growth 1.5% energy intensity reduction 2.0% energy intensity reduction

8. Today’s Energy Infrastructure • All fossil energy • plus a little hydro and nuclear energy • plus a very little renewable energy

9. Energy is not running out • Plenty of fossil carbon • Plenty of nuclear energy • Plenty of solar energy • Other options are niche player

10. Resource Estimates H.H. Rogner, 1997

11. Carbon as Low Cost Energy Lifting Cost Rogner 1997

12. Fossil Fuels • 5000 Gigatons of cheap fuel • Ubiquitous, current consumption is 6Gt/yr • 85% of all commercial energy • Coal, oil, gas, tar etc. are fungible • SASOL: gasoline from coal at $45/bbl • Tarsands: Synthetic crude at less $20/bbl

13. Fungibility of Sources • All hydrocarbons are interchangeable • Gasification, Fischer Tropsch Reactions • Electricity can make all carriers • But at a price – need cheap electricity • Heat can be turned into electricity • Low efficiency – but routinely done • Electricity can pump heat • Efficient – but needs cheap electricity Prediction is difficult

14. Fossil Fuels Energy in 2100 need not be more expensive than today Environment Rather Than Resource Limit Carbon Capture and Storage - Untested Technology

15. 8,000 Gt 7,000 Gt 6,000 Gt 5,000 Gt 4,000 Gt 3,000 Gt 4 2,000 Gt 3 2 1,000 Gt 0 Gt 20th Century 50,000 Gt ??? Oil, Gas, Tars & Shales Carbon Sources and Sinks       Coal Methane Hydrates 21st Century’s Emissions ??? Scales of Potential Carbon Sinks Soil & Detritus Ocean Atmo-sphere Plants pH < 0.3 2000 1800 constant 39,000 Gt Carbon Resources

16. Methane Hydrates 10,000 - 100,000 GtC World Fossil Resource Estimate 8000 GtC 5 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 times current rate of emission???? 21st century emissions 4 3 2 1 The Mismatch in Carbon Sources and Sinks 1800 - 2000 Fossil Carbon Consumption to date 50% increase in biomass 180ppm increase in the air 30% of the Ocean acidified 30% increase in Soil Carbon

17. CO2 emissions need to stop • Large Reductions Required • Independent of CO2 level at stabilization • Time urgency is high up to ~800ppm At 2 GtC per year, the per capita allowance of 10 billion people will be 3% of actual per capita emission in the United States

18. NON-SOLUTIONS • Energy efficiency improvements • Energy reductions • Growing Trees • Hydrogen 10 billion people reducing world emission to a third of today’s would have a per capita emission allowance of 3% of that in the US today

19. Today’s Technology Fails To Deliver Sufficient Energy … • … for 10 billion at US per capita rates • Environmental Problems • Pollution, CO2 • Oil and Gas Shortages • Concentration in the Middle East How much time do we have to make the change?

20. The hydrogen economy cannot run on electricity There are no hydrogen wells Tar, coal, shale and biomass could support a hydrogen economy. Wind, photovoltaics and nuclear energy cannot.

21. A Triad of Large Scale Optionsbacked by a multitude of opportunities • Solar • Cost reduction and mass-manufacture • Nuclear • Cost, waste, safety and security • Fossil Energy • Zero emission, carbon storage and interconvertibility Markets will drive efficiency, conservation and alternative energy

22. Connecting Sources to CarriersCarriers to Consumers Carbon Coal Gasoline Nuclear Heat Diesel Shale Refining Solar Jet Fuel Electricity Synthesis Gas Tar Ethanol Bio Oil Methanol Chemicals Wind, Hydro Natural Gas DME Hydrogen Geo

23. Dividing The Fossil Carbon Pie 900 Gt C total Past 10yr 550 ppm

24. Removing the Carbon Constraint 5000 Gt C total Past

25. Net Zero Carbon Economy CO2 extraction from air CO2 from concentrated sources electricity or hydrogen Permanent & safe disposal Geological Storage Mineral carbonate disposal Capture of distributed emissions

26. Underground Injection Enhanced Oil Recovery Deep Coal Bed Methane Saline Aquifers Storage Time Safety Cost VOLUME statoil

27. Rockville Quarry Mg3Si2O5(OH)4 + 3CO2(g)  3MgCO3 + 2SiO2 +2H2O(l) +63kJ/mol CO2 Backstop & Lid on Liability

28. Magnesium resources that far exceed world fossil fuel supplies

29. Capture at the plant • Flue Gas Scrubbing (Amine Scrubbers) • Oxygen Blown Combustion • Integrated Gasifier Combined Cycle with Carbon Capture • Zero Emission Plants Expand into steel making, cement production, boilers

30. CO2 N2 H2O SOx, NOx and other Pollutants Zero Emission Principle Air Power Plant Carbon Solid Waste

31. Carbon makes a better fuel cell C + O2 CO2 no change in mole volume entropy stays constant G = H 2H2 + O2  2H2O large reduction in mole volume entropy decreases in reactants made up by heat transfer to surroundings G < H

32. Free Energy Enthalpy The Conventional Power Plant Carnot Limited Carbon Fuel Heat Heat Turbine Electric Power

33. Free Energy Enthalpy The Standard Fuel Cell Enthalpy Limited Chemical Conversion with small Heat loss No heat return Carbon Fuel Heat Electric Power

34. Free Energy Enthalpy The Zero Emission Fuel Cell Free energy limited Fuel Cell Conversion Raise Enthalpy (endothermic gasification) Heat Heat Return Carbon Fuel Electric Power Minimize Free Energy Loss

35. Gasification Cycles • C + CO2 2CO • C + H2O  CO + H2 • C + 2H2  CH4 • (CH4 + 2H2O  CO2 + 4H2) • C + O2  CO2

36. Boudouard Reaction

37. Steam Reforming

38. Boudouard Reaction

39. ZECA Hydrogenation

41. Decarbonizing Energy Fuels • Hydrogen Economy • Heating and transportation • Extraction of CO2 from Air • Biomass • Chemical Extraction

42. Air Extraction can compensate for CO2 emissions anywhere 2NaOH + CO2 Na2CO3 Art Courtesy Stonehaven CCS, Montreal

43. How much wind?(6m/sec) Wind area that carries 10 kW 0.2 m 2 for CO2 80 m 2 for Wind Energy Wind area that carries 22 tons of CO2 per year 50 cents/ton of CO2 for contacting

44. EnviroMission’s Tower

45. Hydroxylation Reactor ProcessReactions CO2 (4) Fluidized Bed (1) (2) (3) (6) Membrane Capture Device Trona Process Limestone Precipitate Dryer (5) Depleted Air Air Membrane Device (1) 2NaOH + CO2 Na2CO3 + H2O Ho = - 171.8 kJ/mol (2) Na2CO3 + Ca(OH)2 2NaOH + CaCO3 Ho = 57.1 kJ/mol (3) CaCO3 CaO + CO2 Ho = 179.2 kJ/mol (4) CaO + H2O  Ca(OH)2 Ho = - 64.5 kJ/mol (5) CH4 + 2O2 CO2 + 2H2O  Ho = -890.5 kJ/mol (6) H2O (l) H2O (g) Ho = 41. kJ/mol Source: Frank Zeman

46. Hydrogen or Air Extraction Coal,Gas Fossil Fuel Oil Hydrogen Gasoline Distribution Distribution Consumption Consumption CO2 Transport Air Extraction CO2 Disposal

47. Hydrogen or Air Extraction Coal,Gas Fossil Fuel Oil Hydrogen Gasoline Distribution Distribution Cost comparisons Consumption Consumption CO2 Transport Air Extraction CO2 Disposal

48. CO2 CO2 H2 H2 CH2 Materially Closed Energy Cycles O2 O2 Energy Source Energy Consumer H2O H2O

49. Roles of Different Energy Carriers Carbon Fuels Electricity heating planes Hydrogen Cars

50. Private Sector Carbon Extraction Farming, Manufacturing, Service, etc. Carbon Sequestration Public Institutions and Government guidance Carbon Board certification Permits & Credits Certified Carbon Accounting certificates