William Chandler Battelle Memorial Institute Side Event – COP 8 October 29, 2002

1. Climate Change Mitigationin Developing CountriesOverview and Brazil, China,and Turkey Case Studies William Chandler Battelle Memorial Institute Side Event – COP 8 October 29, 2002

2. A Diverse Set of Countries • Brazil • Most populous nation in South America • Heavy reliance on hydropower, biomass • World’s largest expanse of rainforest • China • World’s most populous nation • Heavy reliance on coal • Growing economy while reducing energy intensity

3. A Diverse Set of Countries • India • Population will soon surpass China’s • Very low per-capita income • Economy and energy demand growing quickly • Mexico • Major oil exporter • Member of OECD • Integrating economy with North American market

4. A Diverse Set of Countries • South Africa • Largest GHG emitter in Africa • Post-Apartheid political and economic reforms • World’s fourth largest producer of coal • Turkey • Transit route for Caspian Sea oil and gas • Member of OECD • Rapidly rising energy demand/GHG intensity

5. A Diverse Set of Countries

6. Case Studies • Energy/Emissions Profile • Mitigating Measures • Potential Mitigation Opportunities

7. Why China Matters to Climate • World’s largest population and second largest GHG emissions • Average annual GDP growth of 9.2% since 1979 • Coal meets over 60% of primary energy demand; large reserves • Incomplete economic reform • Influence on Non-Annex I members

8. China

9. China Profile • GDP projected to grow by 5-7% annually through 2020 • Population growth down to 0.7% in 2002 • Expected structural shift from agriculture to services

10. China Profile • Nearly 400,000 premature deaths resulting from air pollution in China • Up to 8 percent of GDP lost due to environmental degradation • 40 percent of land area affected by acid deposition • Sulfur and nitrogen oxides remain a problem • Very rapid growth in transportation emissions expected Source: World Bank (1998), PNNL (1998).

11. China • Mitigating Measures: • Slower population growth • Economic/energy reforms • Closure of small, inefficient coal mines • Efficiency improvements • Afforestation Estimated Mitigation: 250 MtC/year

12. Energy Price Profile in China Source: China Statistical Yearbook 2001.

13. Has Chinese Coal Use Really Declined?

14. China • Energy-related GHG emissions projected to grow 2-3X by 2030 • Mitigation opportunities: • Continued economic restructuring • Efficiency technology • Fuel switching from coal to gas • Expanded use of renewables Mitigation Potential: 800 MtC (30-50% of projected emissions) in 2030

15. China’s Mitigation Opportunities • Successful transition from “shortage” to demand-driven economy • Market prices discipline consumer behavior, but investment decisions are not transparent • “Policy” loans/unemployment • Transition in R&D activities • Enforcement of legislation

16. China’s Emerging Gas Sector • More domestic gas than once thought • Infrastructure expanding rapidly • Incentives needed for end-users • Imports remain important variable

17. China

18. China - Conclusions • China has lowered emissions significantly • For economic and environmental reasons • Economic reform, efficiency and natural gas policies key to future mitigation • Desire for improved local environmental drives co-benefit activities • Need for stronger partnerships • Business, environmental, national security

19. Brazil • Energy/Emissions: • Two-thirds of GHG emissions from land use change, primarily deforestation • Nearly half of energy from hydropower, biomass • Industrialization, growth raising emissions, reliance on fossil fuels

20. Brazil

21. Brazil • Mitigating Measures: • Use of ethanol, sugar-cane bagasse • Natural gas cogeneration • Aggressive energy conservation • Tax incentive for small cars Estimated Mitigation: 10 MtC/year

22. Brazil

23. Brazil • Energy-related GHG emissions projected to grow 250% by 2020 • Mitigation opportunities: • Expanded use of ethanol, bagasse, natural gas, wind power, and small-scale hydro • Increased energy conservation Mitigation Potential: 45 MtC (20% of projected emissions) in 2020

24. Turkey • Energy/Emissions • One of world’s fastest growing energy markets • Major pipeline projects to establish Eurasian Energy Corridor • GHG intensity higher than most developed countries • Industry growing rapidly, but remains inefficient, under government control

25. Turkey

26. Turkey • Mitigation measures: • Price reforms driven by European integration • Efficiency measures • Five-Year Development Plan: • Privatize energy production, distribution • Increase use of natural gas, renewables • Increase energy efficiency Estimated Mitigation: NA

27. Turkey • Energy-related GHG emissions projected to grow nearly 4-fold by 2020 • Mitigation opportunities: • Privatization of industry • Elimination of energy subsidies • More efficient power transmission • Increased use of natural gas, biomass Mitigation Potential: 10 MtC (9% of projected emissions) in 2010

28. Turkey

29. Conclusions • Efforts over past 30 years have reduced collective emissions of the six countries by 288 MtC/year • Without these efforts, their emissions would be 18% higher • For perspective, under the Kyoto Protocol, developed countries would have to reduce emissions by 392 MtC from projected levels in 2010

30. Conclusions • Most mitigating efforts have common drivers: • Economic growth • Energy security • Local environmental protection

31. Conclusions • Common barriers to future mitigation: • Lack of information • Lack of capacity • Market distortion • Lack of technology and investment

32. Conclusions • Policies can advance climate protection and development priorities by: • Supporting continued market reforms • Mobilizing investment • Supporting capacity-building • Promoting efforts to improve air quality, land conservation

33. For More Information www.pewclimate.org