Northwest-AIRQUEST & AIRPACT-3 Regional Modeling Studies

1. Northwest-AIRQUEST & AIRPACT-3 Regional Modeling Studies Joseph Vaughan, Farren Thorpe, Ying Xie, Serena Chung, Brian Lamb and George Mount Laboratory for Atmospheric Research Washington State University, Pullman, WA Jack Chen, NRC, Environment Canada WRAP Workshop on Regional Emissions & Air Quality Modeling Studies Denver, CO July 30, 2008

2. Topics • NW-AIRQUEST Consortium • AIRPACT-3 Air Quality Forecast System • Cartoon • Domain • Evaluation and Performance (w/ new online tool) (4) • Integration of BlueSky wildfire emissions (2) • NASA ROSES project for integration of satellite retrievals (6) • NOx-VOC sensitivity (2) • Deposition from AIRPACT-3 and EPA STAR Climate and AQ • Atmospheric Policy Trajectory program

3. NW-AIRQUEST • Northwest and International Air Quality, Environmental Science and Technology Consortium • Grew out of Northwest Regional Modeling Consortium’s Air Quality interest group using UW MM5 results for regional modeling needs • Committed to providing air-quality science and technology to address regions policy needs! • Members: • State agencies: ID DEQ, OR DEQ and WA Ecology • US EPA and USDA Forest Service • Universities • Tribes • Local Air Quality Agencies

4. Online charting AIRNow Obs

5. PM2.5 sites: • Colville, WA • Beacon Hill, Seattle, WA Cheeka Peak, WA AIRPACT-3 DOMAIN

6. Overall Daily Max 8-hr O3 Performance

7. P/O vs Observed Timing errors (running 8-hr means) Daily Max 8-hr O3 Performance

8. Overall 24-hr PM2.5 Performance

9. Using the on-line charting tool to compare AIRPACT-3 forecast PM2.5 vs observed PM2.5

10. Wildfire • Receiving from Forest Service BlueSky system: • heat flux -- used for SMOKE plume rise; • and wildfire emissions: • PM2.5 , PM Coarse, CO, TOG, NOx, NH3, SO2 • Fok-Yan Leung comparing MINX plume heights with Bluesky-AIRPACT-3 SMOKE plume rise.

11. Bluesky wildfire emissions imported nightly; and working toward use of SMARTFIRE.

12. NASA ROSES-funded integration of satellite data Applied Sciences Program Approach to Integrated System Solutions for A Comprehensive Regional Air-Quality Decision Support System for the Pacific Northwest

13. AIRPACT-3 Tropospheric Column NO2 vs. OMI Tropospheric Column NO2 for March 2008

14. Seattle: AIRPACT-3 vs OMI NO2, March 2008

15. PORTLAND: AIRPACT-3 vs OMI NO2, March 2008

16. Vancouver, BC: AIRPACT-3 vs OMI NO2, March 2008

17. To recap, we’re working on • making accurate comparisons of OMI-retrieved NO2 to AIRPACT-3 forecast NO2 to guide improved emissions characterization. • just beginning to work with O3 OMI results. • use of CO retrievals from AIRS (and MOPPIT) with intent of setting boundary conditions for CO and other correlated species. • use of AOD (aerosol) observations to reset AIRPACT-3 aerosol state for rerun to new IC.

18. O3 sensitivity analysis study of NOx-VOC indicators in the Pacific Northwest -- Ying Xie • Objective • Investigate the behavior of photochemical indicators (O3/NOy) • Evaluate model predicted sensitivity by comparing to observed indicator values • Evaluate EI using observed compound ratios in the morning urban profile • Methods • Measurements from PNW2001 field campaign • Rob Elleman’s CMAQ simulation as the standard scenario • Sensitivity runs based upon the evaluation of EI • Results • Substantial overestimation of CO emissions by 80% and overestimation of total VOC reactivity by 30% in the EI. • Model predicted O3/NOy ratios are closely related to VOC-NOx sensitive conditions. • The standard scenario over-predicted peak O3 and O3/NOy slope, suggesting an overestimation of sensitivity to NOx, probably due to too much VOCs in the EI. • The reduced VOC scenario resulted in better agreement with measurements in terms of peak O3 as well as O3/NOy correlations.

19. O3 versus NOy from CMAQ compared with measured values (Aug 26, 2001) Standard scenario Reduced VOC scenario

20. A First Look at Regional Deposition Patterns • Regional Deposition Issues • Low pH, elevated N deposition measured in the Columbia River Gorge National Scenic Area • Concern for N, S critical loads in high alpine lakes in the Cascade Mountains • Elevated Hg levels in southern Idaho reservoirs possibly related to high Hg emissions from Nevada gold mines • Regional Modeling Approaches • CMAQ Climate Change Modeling Runs • CMAQ Daily Forecast Runs • Negotiating CESU scope of work with NPS for AIRPACT deposition products

21. Nitrogen Dry + Wet Deposition Monthly Totals • Monthly • Maxima along I-5, urban centers (~1.5 kg/ha) • {N_WETDEP max during winter} ~ {N_DRYDEP max during summer} Nitrogen Dry + Wet Deposition Annual Total • Annual • Maxima along I-5, urban centers (~8-12 kg/ha) • Range: 0.65-14 kg/ha

22. Atmospheric Policy Trajectory (APT): Enhanced training option for Ph.D. in Engineering Science at LAR • to give each participating student a strong foundation in atmospheric science along with complementary training in environmental public policy. • Modeling and policy course • Policy seminars and case studies • Internships with air & policy orientation • to graduate students with the necessary science skills and policy insights to become leaders in industry and government and to undertake the public policy challenges associated with future air quality and climate change. • Associated N-Cycle IGERT proposal going to NSF.

23. Thank You lar.wsu.edu/AIRPACT-3 JVaughan@wsu.edu