The Next Congress and Biofuels Policy

1. The Next Congress and Biofuels Policy PRX Annual Seminar, Aug 18-19, 2014 Kendell W. Keith, TRC Consulting

2. The Next Congress and Biofuels Policy EPA---Its Operations and Decision-Making Congress and the President • Gridlock • Power Shifts in D.C. • Midterm Elections • RFS and Congress: 2014-2016

3. EPA Operations and Decision-Making EPA’s Authority Over the RFS Provided by: • Energy Policy Act of 2005Democrats had most negative votes • Energy Independence & Security Act of 2007Republicans had most negative votes

4. EPA Operations and Decision-Making EPA has Promoted Biofuels • 2012: In a Severe Drought, EPA did not offer waiver • 2013: EPA Defended Biofuels in Congress • Nov 2013: EPA proposed reduction for blend wall Future RFS Decisions: Presidential Election Midterm Election Likely EPA’s Decision 2016 Congress’ & EPA’s Decision 2017 EPA’s Decision 2014 EPA’s Decision 2015

5. EPA Operations and Decision-Making • White House OMB/OIRA • Congress Other Federal Agencies Private Sector Industry • EPA • EPA has little fear of Congress • EPA interprets laws; no fear of private litigation • President overrides policy at will

6. EPA Operations and Decision-Making • EPA’s massive agenda cannot be ignored: Waters of the US, Biofuels, Emissions, Pesticides, Carbon • EPA is based in science but driven by politics • EPA takes on many forms & personalities: • Beware the bureaucracy: As issues age, career people exert more power

7. The House, Senate, and President Why the Gridlock --- Can It Change? • Internal conflicts of political parties (Pew Research Poll)

8. The House, Senate, and President PEW Study on Conservative and Liberal Voters

9. The House, Senate, and President Why the Gridlock --- Can It Change? • Internal conflicts of political parties (Pew Research Poll) • No uncomfortable votes • Democrats are winning the blame game • Keeping issues bottled up in Congress raises money • Political gerrymandering---few competitive House races • Earmarks---a form of political currency---are outlawed • Expanding government is easier than shrinking it

10. The House, Senate, and President When the Gridlock Stops---be Ready! • Gridlock will stop when it’s in both parties’ interest • When you think a bill can’t pass, it happens quickly • Votes are traded in a “market” with little transparency

11. The House, Senate, and President

12. Power Shifts in Washington - Top-Down Politics - The “Coaches” - Money Bundlers - Power Assemblers Judicial System 1980 Congress President President Judicial System 2014 Congress All Voters/Lobbyists All Voters/Lobbyists

13. Power Shifts in Washington - Top-Down Politics -

14. Top-Down Politics: Takeaways • “Big Guys” don’t control everything • Weakens Congressional Committees • Requires more broadly scoped lobbying • All bills moving through Congress are seeking votes, so there is room on the field for everyone! • Political Networking is a part of Business Networking! Cantor Out

15. President Obama Job Approval 2009-2014

16. The Mid Term Election

17. Future of the RFS • A Republican majority in the Senate puts the RFS into serious play in 2015 & 2016 • Defense remains the dominant force in Washington • Who are the “stoppers” for the RFS? Obama? Franken, Klobuchar, Grassley? Grain Coalition? • Can low farm prices develop broader RFS support?

18. Big Unknown: Will Pres Obama Change Course with a Republican Senate?