TOWARDS AN INTEGRATED SYSTEM OF TOURISM STATISTICS Keynote Address IBGE Second National Meeting

1. TOWARDS AN INTEGRATED • SYSTEM OF TOURISM STATISTICS • Keynote Address • IBGE Second National Meeting • of Producers and Users of Social Economical • and Territorial Information • Prepared by: • Scott M. Meis, UNWTO Consultant • Rio de Janeiro, Brazil • 25 August, 2006

2. Introduction • Thank you • Eduardo, for the invitation • Roberto, for the hospitality & advice • Neiva, for the help • Pepe – a mentor, I keep following in his footsteps…with this topics as with others! • Initial challenge… intimidating! • Realization: Statistics systems development and integration have been the focus of my “whole career”!

3. Overview • Focus: • Identify, specify & explain the case for, and concepts, of a “System of Tourism Statistics” (STS), and • An “Integrated” system (ISTS) Purpose: • Specify the meaning and significance of “integration” for STS Objectives: • Demonstrate contributions of TSA to ISTS • Identify the benefits of ISTS

4. Overview • Rationale • Key Concepts • Information/data Needs • Users & Uses • Data Sources • Organizing the Data: TSA Role • Illustrative Examples • Management, Collaboration & Coordination • Conclusions

5. Rationale: Why Systems of Tourism Statistics & Research? WHAT ARE THE TOOLS? JUSTIFICATIONS FOR STATE TOURISM INTERVENTION Social integration New Growth theory Welfare economics Transaction costs • Assumptions: • Pereto efficiency • Perfect competition • Market failure • Approaches: • Correct market failure by: • external effects • production of public goods • information deficits • Assumptions: • Growth endogenous • to economic systems • Approaches: • Strengthening human • resources by education • & training • Strengthening research • & development • Assumptions: • High transaction • costs for tourism SMEs • Resulting supply shortages • Approaches: • Reduction of • transaction costs • Collaborative promotion • Uncertainty reduction • Assumptions: • Travel promotes • interpersonal growth, • knowledge & • understanding • Approaches: • Support domestic • travel of youth • Support cultural • education potential • of 2 way international • travel Source: Adapted from Smeral & Prilisauer, 2005

6. Rationale: Why State Systems of Tourism Statistics & Research? JUSTIFICATIONS FOR STATE TOURISM INTERVENTION • Tourism promotion/development provides: • Stimulating effects of tourism marketing e.g. evidence of minor positive elasticities of relating to foreign tourism demand • Above average high value added effects • High general employment & growth effects • Relative locational security (i.e.“comparative advantage”) • A significant factor in some economies, ensuring peoples livelihood and means of subsistence --especially SMEs in rural areas Source: Smeral, 2006

7. Rationale: What is Tourism Anyway? CHARACTERISTIC FEATURES OF TOURISM • A social domain – a particular human activity • Defined as a demand-side phenomenon • Temporary mobility of people from usual place of residence to temporary destinations • Particular subset of travelers called “ visitors” • An amalgam of industries providing commodities and services directly to the visitor • Related expenditures create economic significance • Localization of impacts • A field of study • A collection of knowledge Source: Adapted from NTFTD, 1989

8. Rationale: What is Tourism Anyway? DEFINITION & SCOPE OF TOURISM DEMAND • WTO and UN definitions (developed at Ottawa Conference on Tourism Statistics, Canada (1991)): • “the activities of persons traveling to and staying in places outside their usual environment for no more than one consecutive year for leisure, business and other purposes” • Includes: • Day trips (excursions) plus “tourist trips” (1+ nights) • Travel to visit friends & relatives • Travel for business • Travel for personal reason (education LT 1yr, religious & health) • Excludes: • Commuting to/from work • Study or job relocation • Diplomats or armed forces on assignment Source: Adapted from WTO, 1993

9. Rationale: What is Tourism Anyway? FORMS OF TOURISM • Inbound tourism: non-residences visiting a given country/state (exports) • Outbound tourism: residence visiting in another country/state (imports) • Domestic tourism: residence visiting within their own country/state • Internal tourism: domestic + inbound • National tourism: domestic + outbound • International tourism: inbound + outbound Source: Adapted from NTFTD, 1989

10. Rationale: How much is that? 230+ MILLION TRIPS 7+ X CANADIAN POPULATION (30 MILLION) • Total tourism** • 233.5 million person-trips (2004) • 127.3 million tourist* person-trips (2004) • Domestic tourism** • 88.7 million overnight person-trips* • 86.4 million same day • Outbound tourism • US: 13.8 million person-trips * • Overseas: 5.7 million person-trips * • Inbound Tourism • US:15.0 million overnight person-trips*19.6 million same day • Overseas: 4.1 million overnight person-trips* 0.2 million same day * Tourist = 1+nights ** Not comparable with 2001

11. Previous (Pre-1989)Views of Tourism Data • NO measures of the core economic phenomena: • Tourism consumption • Tourism products • Tourism industries • NO credible measures of the economic role and significance of tourism in the national economy • NO core source of data on articulation of tourism markets & industries • NO overview the whole of tourism • A dispersed and disorganized collection of information fragments • “The whole is less than the sum of its parts” Martin Wilke,1985 • NO “system” at all! Source: NTFTD, 1989

12. What is the System of Tourism Statistics? SYSTEM OF TOURISM STATISTICS(STS) • 1st reference --Tourism Satellite Account (TSA): Recommended Methodological Framework (1993) • Introduction: beyond being a new statistical instrument, the TSA must be analyzed as a as a ‘building process to guide countries in the development of their own system of tourism statistics, the main objective being the completion of the TSA, which could be viewed as the synthesis of the system’. • “That part of the National Statistical System whose aim is to provide the user with reliable, consistent and appropriate statistical information on the socio-economic structure and developments of the tourism phenomenon and which can, in turn be integrated with all the other economic and social statistics at different territorial levels (state, infra-state, and international).” Source: Massieu, 2001

13. Concepts: TS History TOURISM STATISTICS: OTHER “SYSTEMATIC” SEMINAL REFERENCES • “Definition of ‘international tourist’ for statistical purposes”, Council of the League of Nations, 1937 • Revised definition of ‘international tourist’ and concept of ‘international visitor’, International Union of Travel Organizations, 1950, 1953 • Recommended definition for the terms “visitor, tourist and excursionist”, IUOTO, 1963 • “Provisional Guidelines on Statistics for International Tourism”, United Nations Statistical Commission, 1976 • “Le compte satellte du tourisme: presentation des cadres comtables et de la premiere estimations de la defense interieure de tourisme”, Ministere du Commerce, de l’ Artisanat ed du Tourisme, 1979 • “Determination of the importance of tourism as an economic activity within the framework of the national accounting system”, WTO , 1983 • “Le Compte Satellite du Tourisme”, CREDOC, INSEE , 1983 • “Tourism and Economics: the Inclusion of Tourism in Standard Economic Statistics”, OECD, 1984

14. Concepts: TS History TOURISM STATISTICS: OTHER “SYSTEMATIC” REFERENCES (Cont’d.) • “ Towards A Tourism Research and Statistics System”, Gordon Taylor, Tourism Canada, 1984 • “Tourism Statistics Program”, Shaila Nijhowne, Statistics Canada, 1985 • “Working Paper #2: Current Data Bases”, Stephen Smith, NTFTD, Statistics Canada, 1985 • “ Working Paper #3: A Satellite Account for Tourism”, Claude Simard & Janet Swinamer, NTFD, Statistics Canada, 1985 • “Working Paper #5: Characterizing Tourism Demand Standard Definitions and Classification”, Peter Fairchild, NTFD, Statistics Canada, 1985 • “Working Paper #6: A Report on the Prospects for Establishing Local Area Tourism Data Bases in Canada”, Frank Hart, NTFD, Statistics Canada, 1985 • Working Paper #4: A Proposed Integrated Framework for the Demand-side Tourism Data Collection in Canada, Brent Ritchie, NTFD, Statistics Canada, 1985 • National Task Force on Tourism Data: Final Report, Statistics Canada, 1989

15. Concepts: TS History TOURISM STATISTICS: OTHER “SYSTEMATIC” REFERENCES (Cont’d.) • “A Proposal for a Tourism Satelite Account and Information System for Tourism”, Jocelyn Lapierre, Stewart Wells, Kishori Lal, Kathleen Campbell & John Joisce, 1991 • WTO-UN Recommendations on Tourism Statistics , UN- WTO-OECD, 1993 • Technical Manual #2: The Collection of Tourism Expenditure Statistics” WTO, 1995 • “System of Statistical Indicators for Analysing the Economy of Tourism (SINTUR): Progrramme of work for the period 1998-2000”, Working Document No. 5, Instituto de Estudios Turisticos, 1997 • “A Satellite Account for Tourism (4th Draft)”, WTO, 1998 • “A Tourism Satellite Account for OECD Countries (Draft)”, OECD, 1998“A Research and Development Program for Improved Tourism Industry Decision Making: Technical Paper, Canadian Tourism Commission, 1999 • Les Comptes Satellites du Tourisme: Une proposition de l’Organization mondiale du tourisme pour integrer l’analyze du tourisme dans le cadre de la Cmpatabilite’ Nationale”, Marion Libreros, 2000

16. Concepts: STS Scope STS SCOPE AND COVERAGE • A series of statistical functions relating to tourism including: • Organization and legal structure of the institutional units that produce tourism statistics (mostly public but some significant private and micro levels) • Administrative mechanisms and (legally) established links between these and a central unit (if one exists) • Statutory and non-statutory nature of certain statistical sources and administrative controls which generate information that is liable to used for statistical purposes, (border controls, sales taxes, registers) • Human and material resources assigned to tasks in these producing units Source: Massieu, 2001

17. Concepts: STS Structure STS STRUCTURE • Elements: To fulfill its aims (and as subset of the NSS) STS must include: • Statistical Sources: Travel surveys, household resident surveys, business data, systemic syntheses (IO, BOP, SNA), administrative data, etc. • Methodological references: Concepts, classifications, methods and procedures • Instrumental means available: Collection, storage, dissemination and application of the obtained data • Data bases of detailed final results, micro-data files, summary results • Publications (paper & electronic information products) • Analytical applications and transformations: impact models, econometric forecasts, etc. Source: Adapted from Massieu, 2001

18. Concepts: STS Structure STS STRUCTURE (Cont’d.) • Focus: • Marketing aspects of tourism • Social aspects of tourism • Economic aspect of tourism • Financial aspects of tourism • Operating aspects of tourism • Environmental aspects of tourism • Legal aspects of tourism • Political aspects of tourism • Others Source: Adapted from Massieu, 2001

19. Concepts: STS STS FUNCTIONAL REQUIREMENTS • Reconciliation: • Controlling & ensuring that a particular process meets its assigned purpose and user requirements • Controlling consistency/harmonization of statistical information systems at state/,infra-state and international levels • Coordination: Balancing tourism statistical/research programmes in terms of ongoing activities, projects and financial and human resources • Integration: Controlling & ensuring the connection and assembly of the different statistical products Source: Adapted from Massieu, 2001 and Quevedo, 1990

20. Concepts: Integration INTEGRATION ELEMENTS • Instrumental Elements: National and international tourism concepts, definitions, classifications, and standards for tourism • Integrated Statistical Information Systems: • Tourism Satellite Account Information Systems • Tourism Marketing Research & Information Systems • Systems of National Accounts • Socio-demographic Information Systems Source: Adapted from Massieu, 2001 and Quevedo, 1990

21. Concepts: Integration INTEGRATION SIGNIFICANCE • Level of integrated system development a function of number, type and complexity of functions • Integrated systems require consistency, rigour in preparation of basic tourism statistics • Integrated systems provide the conceptual framework required to designte instrumental elements: concepts, defintions, classifications & standars • Integrated systems provided the key leverage point for statistical work in all areas Source: Adapted from Massieu, 2001 and Quevedo, 1990

22. What kinds of data relate to tourism? • DATA NEEDS FOR STS • Overall general need: to improve knowledge of tourism reality • Specific purposes: • Aid improved public & private decision • industry related decision making relating to: • Advocacy, planning and public awareness • Marketing • Investment, operations and management • Manpower, education and training • Facilitate international comparisons for • regulatory and other policy, planning and • management purposes • To facilitate pure and applied research Source: Adapted from Massieu, 2001 and NTFD, 1989

23. What kinds of data relate to tourism? • TOURISM DATA NEEDS • National “macro” level data to establish the economic and social significance of tourism • Macro regional data as well to assess and assist regional development policies • National data relating to specific policy developments, eg. taxes, exchange rate fluctuations on tourism business • National data relating to sector & industry strategic plans • “Micro” data on specific market places & operations of firms • Local data on the strength of attractions and local tourism activities at specific destinations Source: NTFTD, 1989

24. What kinds of data relate to tourism? • DATA TECHNICAL REQUIREMENTS • Credibility, reliability and validity in representing claimed aspects of tourism reality • Timeliness and relevance if intended to aid decision making • Produced on a regular basis • Consistent & comparable over time, between regions & regions, & with other fields of economic & social activity (i.e. concepts, definitions, classifications, units of analysis, reference populations) Source: Adapted from NTFTD, 1989 and Massieu, 2001

25. What kinds of data relate to tourism? • DATA TECHNICAL REQUIREMENTS (Cont’d.) • Sufficient breadth and depth of subject matter to meet most decision-makers’ requirements • Internally consistent with recognized economic & socal frameworks • Accessibility, transparency and affordability • Associated communications and education • Objective and scientific (i.e. reproducible) • Minimal duplication Source: Adapted from NTFTD, 1989 and Massieu, 2001

26. What tourism data sources are there? • DATA SOURCES • Multiple, diverse sources – Canada found 275 different • Majority in public sector central statistics agencies with national international or regional scope • Primarily individual resident and visitor surveys • Also business surveys of operating characteristics of tourism sector firms (both public & private) • Provincial/state “exit” surveys & specialized surveys of events & attractions Source: NTFTD, 1989

27. What tourism data sources are there? • DATA SOURCES (Cont’d.) • Administrative data (both public & private) • “Micro” data on specific market places & operations of firms • Local data on the strength of attractions and local tourism activities at specific destinations • Private sector “micro” data of operating characteristics firms, establishments, branches, products, & market segments Source: NTFTD, 1989

28. TSA Defines Scope of Tourism Industry • TSA defines the scope of the tourism sector (industries) to include the direct supply of goods and services to facilitate business, pleasure and leisure activities away from the home environment • TSA defines the core supply-side facets of tourism: • Tourism expenditures • Tourism products • Tourism industries • Tourism demand • Tourism GDP • Tourism Employment • Tourism enterprises • TSA provides credible aggregate measures of the role and significance of tourism in the national economy in terms of total demand, Tourism GDP and employment • TSA provides a core source of data on the articulation of tourism industries with markets • TSA provides tourism interests with a self-view Source: NTFTD, 1989

29. The TSA & Integration • TSA CONTRIBUTIONS TO • INTEGRATING TOURISM STATISTICS • A conceptual framework • An information system linking source and derivative databases • A source of consistency • A tool for reconciliation • A tool for comparisons • A tool for coordination and collaboration • A template for discovery Source: Adapted from NTFTD, 1989

30. Canadian System of National Accounts Input/Output Tables Tourism Tourism Satellite Account Tourism Monetary Values TSA: Data Integration Link to SNA/I-O Source: NTFTD, 1989

31. Analytical Modules Capital Module Data Characterization Data Core Account CTSA: Data Organization Multi-layered Vision Source: NTFTD, 1989

32. TSA Information System Vision Transportation Surveys Input Output System Survey of Household Spending Accommodation Survey System of National Accounts Food and Beverage Survey Canadian Travel Survey Canadian Tourism Satellite Account Recreation Surveys International Travel Survey Travel Arrangement Services Survey 3 Demand Surveys Gov’t. Support Planning & Analysis 13 Supply Surveys Source: NTFTD, 1989

33. Data Organization: Demand-Supply Link Linkage Between Commodities & Industries • Demand is estimated for groups of goods and services (commodities) • GDP and employment, however, must be calculated by industry • Supply can be calculated either for groups of commodities or by industry/sub-industry categories, establishing the link between demand and GDP • The link is a demand/supply ratio for each commodity • This ratio is then applied to each industry category to calculate GDP and employment in the industry space Source: NTFTD, 1989

34. TSA: Integration & 1 Way Reconciliation Canadian Tourism Satellite Account All Other Areas of System of National Accounts Tax information Other Information Such as Manufacturing data International Trade data Reconciliation Process Labour Force Survey Input Output System Business information Such as Profits, capital investment, revenues, expenses System of National Accounts Supply Surveys Survey of Employment, Payroll and Hours Demand Surveys

35. TSA: Integration & 1 Way Reconciliation Balance supply & demand • Commodities expenditures VS industry revenues • Tourism demand VS supply by commodity • Tourism inputs VS outputs by industry • Gross outputs VS all inputs • Iterative interactive process

36. STS-TSA: Integration Examples ILLUSTRATIONS • Comparable Key Aggregates • Comparable Detailed Aggregates • Economic Impact Models • Economic Indicators • Characteristics of the Industry • Government Revenues • Forecasts • Media analysis templates

37. STS-TSA: Key Aggregate Comparisons VIEW OF MAJOR EXPENDITURE FLOWS

38. STS-TSA: Key Aggregate Comparisons TOURISM GDP SHARES WITHIN SECTOR • Tourism GDP: $ 20.4 Billion (2000) • Air transportation = most value added

39. Tourism GDP /total GDP Employment in tourism /total employment (percentage) Yukon 4.8 8.1 British Columbia 3.5 4.7 Prince Édward Isle. 3.1 4.6 Nova Scotia 2.6 4.1 Newfoundland/Labrador 2.3 3.9 Manitoba 2.3 3.2 Canada, 1996 2.3 3.7 Québec 2.2 3.3 Alberta 2.2 3.9 Ontario 2.1 3.5 NWTerritoires/Nunavut 2.1 4.3 New Brunswick 2.0 3.6 Saskatchewan 1.8 3.3 TSS-TSA: Key Aggregate Comparisons-PTTSA 1996

40. STS-TSA: Key Aggregate Comparisons

41. TSS-TSA: Cross Market Comparisons

42. Sectoral Linkages: Extra-sectoral purchases 1994 External Inputs to Canadian Tourism Sector Selected Industries Selected Commodity Purchases

43. STS-TSA: Seasonal Comparisons – Total Demand

44. Long Term Trends & Cycles (1986 Q1 to 2001 Q2)

45. STS-TSA: Detailed Quarterly Comparisons Total Tourism Spending in Canada by KeyCommodities – 2nd Quarter 2001

46. %of Total %SME’s** Total Enterprises (1999) 159,000 * 1980 Standard Industrial Classification** Less than 100 employees Structural Linkages: Business Characteristics Distribution of Tourism Businesses by Industry *and Size Food and beverage service (92): 57 99.0 Recreation and entertainment (85,96): 19 99.0 Accommodation (91): 12 97.6 Transportation (45): 6 98.9 Travel services (96): 5 99.5 Other 1 ---

47. $1.60 $8.90 $12.40 Federal Provincial Municipal Government Revenue Comparisons TOTAL = $15.4 Billion (1999) * Adjusted = $30 /$100

48. Media Content Analysis Media Content Analysis

49. Latest Integrative Innovation: A Canadian Tourism Industry Industrial Outlook • Resulting supply-side forecasts are provided quarterly for a five-year period following from the current year. • Combines information from the preceding instruments and analysis to assess the current and future profitability of the Canadian tourism sector. • New economic model has been developed specifically to forecast profitability within the various key industry components.

50. ISTS: Collaborative Organization Multi-lateral Technical Partnership • Statistics Canada & Canadian Tourism Commission • 20+ Other partners • Objective independent statistics agency • Industry champion, leadership, resources, uses • Shared goals and objectives • Interdependence • Regular meetings, fora & working group • Leadership, flexibility & firmness • Mutual respect & understanding