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Social Gaming Crystal Ball: 2012

Social Gaming Crystal Ball: 2012. Dave Rohrl Creative Director, Playdom Casual Connect Europe February 9, 2012. What Is the Crystal Ball?. Goal. Predict important FB gaming trends Understand reasons Forecast impacts. Methodology. But seriously Year in Social Games reflection

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Social Gaming Crystal Ball: 2012

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  1. Social Gaming Crystal Ball: 2012 Dave Rohrl Creative Director, Playdom Casual Connect Europe February 9, 2012

  2. What Is the Crystal Ball?

  3. Goal • Predict important FB gaming trends • Understand reasons • Forecast impacts

  4. Methodology • But seriously • Year in Social Games reflection • Deflecting trends lines • General industry trend lines • Inside/Outside social • Interesting financial events and key quotes

  5. Caveat Auditor • Hugely speculative • Hard to predict • Consider the source

  6. Prediction #1 Social Goes Casual (Not Easy Money)

  7. Trend Line • 2008-2009: Text RPG

  8. Trend Line • 2008-2009: HTML RPG • 2009-2010: Simple Decorators

  9. Trend Line • 2008-2009: HTML RPG • 2009-2010: Simple Decorators • 2010-2011: Builder

  10. Trend Line • 2008-2009: HTML RPG • 2009-2010: Simple Decorator • 2010-2011: Builder • 2011-2012: Genre diversification

  11. Dominant Mammal? • Casual!

  12. 2010 Casual Hits

  13. 2011 Casual Hits

  14. Why Does This Work? • Demographics/Psychographics • Large pool of experienced devs • Well-understood core game

  15. Why Now? • Development experience • Code has been cracked • Market is very, very proven

  16. 2011 Casual Hits

  17. Missing From the Picture?

  18. But…… • Expect lots of failure • Merging is hard • Execution is key • Lots of people trying

  19. So? • Classic casual gameplay as entry point • Stock up on high skill • Both sides of the coin • Winners win big • Execution wins

  20. Prediction #2 HTML5 Makes A Dent (But Doesn’t Become Dominant)

  21. What is HTML5? • Web development standard • Open • Cross-platform • 2D gaming support via canvas • 3D gaming support via WebGL (still in infancy)

  22. Trend Line • Early yet Late 2010 Late 2011

  23. Why Now? • April 2010: “new open standards, created in the web era, such as HTML 5, will win (over Flash) • September 2010: Zynga buys Dextrose AG • January 2011: Facebook publishes HTML5 browser performance stats, suggests future prefs • March 2011: Disney acquires RocketPack • November 2011: Adobe abandons Flash for mobile, focuses on HTML5

  24. Why Does It Matter? • Web/mobile apps • Web = big $$$ today • Mobile = web of the future • Internet in your pocket

  25. Is Web/Mobile Cross-Platform Always a Good Idea? • Mostly, kinda, sorta • UI refactor • Different play patterns • Different purchase drivers • Different release cycles • BUT partial is better than nothing

  26. Why Not Dominant? • Lots of skilled Flash teams • Lots of games in the pipeline • Variable browser performance

  27. So? • If you’re not gearing up now, you should • You NEED a mobile strategy • Free-ish (with HTML5) • Watch out for browser performance variance • This section will look VERY different in the 2013 version.

  28. Prediction #3 IP Becomes Really Important (But Still Isn’t a Magic Wand)

  29. Why is IP Important? • Facebook had over 550,000 apps as of January 2010 • Probably 2MM+ by now • iPhone had over 300,000 apps as of January 2011 • 600,00 by now

  30. Where Do Little Users Come From? • Directory Search • Game Channel • Virals • Word of Mouth • Advertising • Directory Search • Game Channel • Virals

  31. IP and Advertising • Does IP lower acquisition costs? • Yes!

  32. Oh, and

  33. Additional Benefits • Fan Base • Price Points • Content Stream

  34. But…

  35. Remember… • Trial ≠ Conversion • Conversion isn’t just monetization

  36. Prediction #4 Mobile-> Web Gets Leverage (But Doesn’t Dominate)

  37. Web->Mobile 2010

  38. Mobile->Web Stories 2010

  39. Pseudo Web->Mobile

  40. Mobile->Web Stories 2011

  41. Mobile->Web Stories 2012??

  42. Why? • Similarity of play patterns • Related expertise • Enough resources

  43. But…. • Not a freebie • UI • Play duration & other variations • Interoperation is hard • Competition will accelerate

  44. …And the Rest • The All-Singing, All-Dancing Photorealistic 3D Game Still Doesn’t Make It • 2009 Won’t Come Back For Hardcore Strategy Games • 2012 (post-IPO) Will Be An Interesting Year For the Zynga Quality Bar

  45. Thank You! • Questions? • Feedback! • drohrl@playdom.com

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