ONS Economic Forum Email: economicforum@ons.uk Twitter: @ONS #ONSeconomy

1. ONS Economic Forum Email: economicforum@ons.gov.ukTwitter: @ONS #ONSeconomy Website: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/get-involved/events/events/economic-forum/index.html WIFI code for Barber Surgeons’ Hall: C897139327 ONS Economic Forum 15 October 2015

2. ONS Economic Forum – October 2015 Agenda 09.45 Introduction & welcome 10.00 Sir Charlie Bean 10.30 Labour Market Flows 11.00 Refreshment break 11.30 What’s New 12.00 What’s Next

3. Introduction and welcome Jonathan Athow, Deputy National Statistician for Economic Statistics ONS Economic Forum 15 October 2015

4. Independent Review of UK Economic Statistics • SIR CHARLES BEAN • Terms of Reference • To assess the UK’s future statistics needs in particular relating to the challenges of measuring the modern economy; • To assess the effectiveness of the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in delivering those statistics, including the extent to which the ONS makes use of relevant data and emerging data-science techniques; • While fully protecting the independence of the UK national statistics, consider whether the current governance framework best supports the production of world-class economic statistics.

5. Labour Market Flows David Freeman, Deputy Director of Labour Market ONS Economic Forum 15 October 2015

6. Latest labour market data Employment (June to August 2015) 31.12 million ↑ 140,000 (16 and over) 73.6% ↑ 0.2 (16 to 64) Unemployment (June to August 2015) 1.77 million ↓ 79,000 (16 and over) 5.4% ↓ 0.3 (16 and over) Average earnings (June to August 2015) 3.0% ↑ 0.1 (Total pay) 2.8% ↓ 0.1 (Regular pay)

7. Contents • How do we track people through the labour market? • How does this compare with the headline statistics? • What can flows show us about how the labour market is working?

8. UK Labour Force Survey: quarterly sample structure

9. Labour Market Flows Statistics • Net quarterly flows from LFS Longitudinals differ from the changes in quarterly aggregates from main LFS, because: • smaller sample: just people aged 16 to 64 present in two successive quarters • different weighting methods • excludes imputed non-responders retained in quarterly LFS • published flows seasonally adjusted independently; • ....but patterns over time are very similar

10. Labour Market Flows Statistics Changes in quarterly LFS employment compared with net flow from longitudinal (people aged 16-64)

11. Labour Market Flows Statistics

12. Employment level (age 16-64)

13. Labour Market Flows Statistics

14. Labour Market Flows Statistics

15. Unemployment level (age 16-64)

16. Labour Market Flows Statistics

17. Labour Market Flows Statistics

18. Labour Market Flows Statistics

19. Labour Market Flows Statistics

20. Labour Market Flows Statistics

21. Summary • Net changes in levels hide larger movements • Downturn did not affect people moving into employment • ...but did affect people losing jobs • Recent increase in people moving jobs • ...impact on pay growth?

22. Future Publications • Analysis of these flows will feature in upcoming editions of the ONS Economic Review • Article on trends in self employment planned for publication in November • Eurostat flows release on 26 October • Next update 11 November • July to September 2015

23. ONS Economic Forum Email: economicforum@ons.gov.ukTwitter: @ONS #ONSeconomy Website: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/get-involved/events/events/economic-forum/index.html WIFI code for Barber Surgeons’ Hall: C897139327 ONS Economic Forum 15 October 2015

24. What’s New Darren Morgan, Deputy Director of National Accounts Co-ordination Peter Patterson, Deputy Chief Economic Adviser ONS Economic Forum 15 October 2015

25. Blue and Pink Book 2015 Darren Morgan, Deputy Director of National Accounts Co-ordination ONS Economic Forum 15 October 2015

26. What am I going to cover? • GDP • 1997 to Q2 2015 • Current Price • Chained Volume Measures (CVM) • Balance of Payments • 1997 to Q2 2015 • current prices

27. GDP 1997 to Q2 2015 ONS Economic Forum 15 October 2015

28. GDP CP : revisions to annual levels • Level revised between -£2.8bn to +£24.5bn per year • Level raised on average by 0.4% • Average increase £2.6bn 1997-2011...but larger in recent periods £9.8bn (2012), £21.8bn (2013), £24.5bn (2014) £m

29. GDP CP: annual levels, contributions to revisions £ bn

30. CP GDP: annual levels, contributions to revisions • GNI: upward revisions 1997-2008 largely due to improved estimates of concealed income • GNI: larger upward revisions 2009-2014, concealed income + under coverage of small businesses • GFCF: improved estimates for stamp duty, DIY and R&D tax credits etc. • Insurance: correction to the change in provisions for unpaid claims series • New data: switch to LFS from work force jobs in CoE and new wages & salaries data from HMRC £ bn

31. GDP CP : revisions to annual growth • Between 1998 and 2014, CP GDP annual growth revised by a range per year of -0.4pp to +0.7pp • Avg growth over same period remains unrevised though at 4.1% per year %

32. GDP CVM: revisions to annual growth • Avg growth 1998-2014 now 2.0% rather than 2.1% (actual revision is -0.02ppts!) • Most interest has been stronger growth in 2011 (0.4%), 2012 (0.5%) and 2013 (0.5%) • Very similar to current price picture %

33. CVM GDP: revisions to quarterly growth • Avg revision Q2 1997 to Q2 2015 is 0.0 ppts • Avg absolute revision over same period is 0.11 ppts %

34. So where does that leave us? 2008/09 downturn same length, and virtually same depth, now -6.1% was -6.0% Strength of the recovery has been revised up: Back to pre-downturn peak in Q2 2013, one quarter earlier than previously estimated GDP now 5.9% above pre-downturn peak, was 5.2% However, recovery remains weak by historical standards

35. Balance of Payments 1997 to Q2 2015 ONS Economic Forum 15 October 2015

36. Current Account Balance

37. Current Account Balance as % of GDP

38. International Investment Position

39. So where does that leave us? Current Account pretty much where we were ....although improvement through 2014/15 IIP as you were .....apart from some improvement in 2013

40. ............and finally ‘the link’ All communication for the Blue and Pink Books can be found at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/method-quality/specific/economy/national-accounts/changes-to-national-accounts/blue-book-and-pink-book-2015-changes/index.html

41. What’s New Peter Patterson, Deputy Chief Economic Adviser ONS Economic Forum 15 October 2015

42. BB15: income components of GDP Percentage points

43. BB15: expenditure components of GDP Revisions to the contributions of expenditure components to GDP growth, percentage points Percentage points

44. Growth driven by domestic demand Percentage points

45. Expenditure components of GDP

46. Indicators of economic well-being Index nos, 2008Q1 = 100

47. Contributions to real income growth

48. Household + NPISH cash saving ratio Per cent of households’ disposable incomes, Blue Book 2015 basis

49. Sectoral financial balances % of GDP

50. Services lead output per hour growth