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CSG/ERC 44 th Annual Meeting Springfield, MA

CSG/ERC 44 th Annual Meeting Springfield, MA. Douglas MacIntyre, Senior Oil Market Analyst Petroleum Division U.S. Energy Information Administration August 10, 2004. Northeast Energy Outlook Panel. WTI Crude Oil Price: Potential for Volatility Around Base Case.

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CSG/ERC 44 th Annual Meeting Springfield, MA

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  1. CSG/ERC 44th Annual MeetingSpringfield, MA Douglas MacIntyre, Senior Oil Market Analyst Petroleum Division U.S. Energy Information Administration August 10, 2004 Northeast Energy Outlook Panel

  2. WTI Crude Oil Price: Potential for Volatility Around Base Case Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

  3. Crude Oil Price, OECD Days Supply, and World Excess Production Capacity

  4. OECD Commercial Oil Inventories Source: History: Oil Market Report, IEA, July 2004

  5. Will OPEC Keep Markets Adequately Supplied? History Projections Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

  6. Annual World Oil Demand Growth1993-2005 Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

  7. Annual World Oil Demand Growthby Region, 1993-2005 * Other includes Australia, New Zealand, the Middle East, and Africa. Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

  8. U.S. Crude Inventories Projected to Remain in Normal Range History Million Barrels Sources: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004

  9. U.S. Net Crude Oil Imports Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

  10. U.S. Crude Oil Refinery Inputs Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

  11. Distillate Prices Generally Follow Crude Oil East Coast Retail On-Highway Diesel Fuel East Coast Residential Heating Oil Spot West Texas Intermediate

  12. East Coast Distillate Stocks 2002-03 2001-02 2003-04 Source: Energy Information Administration

  13. Distillate Winter Demand Expected to Continue to Grow Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

  14. Last Winter’s Weather Was Close to Average Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

  15. Distillate Production Higher Leading Up to Peak Demand Season Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

  16. Distillate Imports Expected to be Key Component In Winter Supply Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

  17. Distillate Stocks Expected to be in Normal Range Forecast Actual Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

  18. Northeast Heating Oil Inventories Monthly Weekly Source: Energy Information Administration.

  19. Consumer Prices and Expenditures – Heating Oil (Northeast) Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

  20. Propane Prices Follow Crude Oil and Natural Gas

  21. U.S. Propane Stocks Forecast Actual Average Range Lower Operational Inventory = 18.5 Million Barrels Source: Energy Information Administration

  22. Consumer Prices and Expenditures – Propane (Midwest) Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

  23. U.S. Natural Gas Spot Prices (Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval*) *The confidence intervals show +/- 2 standard errors based on the properties of the model. The ranges do not include the effects of major supply disruptions. Sources: History: Natural Gas Week; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

  24. U.S. Working Gas in Storage(Difference from Previous 5-Year Average) EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004

  25. Consumer Prices and Expenditures – Natural Gas (Midwest) Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004.

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