Research in Post Conflict Nations

1. Research in Post Conflict Nations MRIA Presentation June 18, 2008

2. Introduction • Case studies • West Bank Gaza • Kosovo • Challenges • lessons for home and away • Research & training • using projects as a teaching tool • Emerging tools • Questions & answers Overview

3. Research. • Strategy. • Results. • Research-based strategy firm that works with companies, organizations and governments to solve corporate and public affairs challenges. • At Navigator, we believe research is fundamental to a winning result. Navigator

4. The National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI) • a non-profit organization working to strengthen and expand democracy worldwide • works with democrats in every region of the world to build political and civic organizations and safeguard elections • 3000+ employees in 60+ countries around the world • chaired by former US Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright Our Partner

5. Post conflict communities have taught us lessons ... • about reaching hard to access communities with severe socio-economic challenges • breaking down barriers of culture and language • innovative methodologies for quality control • ... that could apply to Canada • Aboriginal communities, new Canadians Our Belief

6. "The increasing number of surveys and their frequency, I'd argue hasn't translated into a high quality of good understanding' of Muslims attitude and opinions." • David Pollock • Washington Institute for Near East Policy • Toronto Star, June 15 2008 The Environment

7. "Autocratic regimes in [the Middle East] sometimes lean on surveyors and respondents to yield the results they want." • Prof. Mahmoud Eid • University of Ottawa • Toronto Star, June 15 2008 10 years of field experience in Egypt The Environment

8. at the height of the Maoist insurgency in Nepal in 2006, U.S. political researcher Stan Greenberg was hired to do nationwide sampling by an agency of the U.S. government. His local staff were kidnapped by the guerillas • the ransom demand? • his polling data. • they paid, but only with summaries, not the original data or analysis The Environment

9. Case Study: West Bank/Gaza

10. test Palestinian leadership • ballot test preferences for PLC and • presidential elections • explore legitimacy of PA, • emergency government, Hamas • implications of Hamas takeover of • Gaza • strengths/weaknesses of Fateh • and Hamas Sample Research Objectives WBG

11. The study • 24 months, $750,000 • monthly quantitative, quarterly qualitative • Most recent report • study of Palestinian Youth • conducted in May/June 2008Quantitative • survey of 1200 respondents • Qualitative • 16 focus groups West Bank/Gaza Study

12. Sample completion • very difficult, especially in Gaza • Respondent confidence • peer approved response • Field reporting issues • quality and speed Methodological Challenges

13. Only 17% employed • 25% male, 8% female, • Unemployment challenges • 57% say 'few jobs’ • 27% say discrimination • 70% Politically inactive • 47% do not read newspaper • 43% do not use Internet • 61% intend to vote   • 60% Connected to education • 32% high school • 23% university • 5% other Findings[Quant]

14. 88% Opposed to religion in politics • 73% Opposed to politics in the mosque Findings[Quant]

15. Deeper examination of reasons for political alienation, potential motivating messages • Study of possible alternative communications channels, role models, and message delivery • Consideration of believable 'life choices' messages Focus Groups [Qual]

16. To be useful research needs to operate within a long-term structural framework • Regular sweeps of the same audiences are essential to track a fast moving environment • Quality assessment requires a professional accountable to NDI as well as a supporting local supplier • Reporting to local partners on a timely and transparent basis is essential to credibility and acceptance Discoveries

17. Case Study: Kosovo

18. Political party standings • Favourability of leaders • Identify potential election issues • Viability of various coalitions • Final status of Kosovo • Reconciliation Sample Research Objectives: Kosovo

19. Annual qualitative review of issues, leaders and institutions • Election year quantitative issues and leader surveys • 2003-2008 • 2005 & 2008 National election years • No comparable study of public opinion • providers work for embassies, packaged goods and parties but do not publish Kosovo Study

20. Data collection • reports of fraud in previous studies • perception of bias with local providers • Ethnic divide • separate research project design for Albanian and Serbian communities • Study timing • significant international events impacting local public opinion happening on weekly basis Methodological Challenges

21. Intention to vote dropping • turn out dropping 7-10% each election • President’s popularity overwhelming • his party’s support decreasing • Status quo will not hold • significant tensions brewing, positive attitudes toward international presence softening • Reconciliation • no identifiable space for agreement on future status Findings[Quant]

22. Leaders seen as corrupt • but retained high favourability based on other criteria • Corruption is local & int’l • small scale in schools and hospitals due to underfunding, large scale by foreigners • History of conflict • role in the war dictates national importance • Economics • the key to progress and reconciliation Findings[Qual]

23. Political party support frozen • international administration means elections are ‘not real’ • Massive change afoot • significant urbanization and changing demography altering the values of the state(let) • Final status overwhelms • no space for domestic issues with Final Status looming, political leaders off the hook • Quality control • everything is political in Kosovo Discoveries

24. The environment is politically unstable ? • when the personal security risk is high ? • when families and individuals might be displaced ? • when national issues trump local and personal concerns ? • when clients, media and society are skeptical of your research ? How do you do research when ...

25. Quality control • coping with no street addresses, bad phone numbers, long collection periods and difficult samples • Quantitative • finding partners and quality control measures to protect your data from collection to analysis • Qualitative • identifying facilities, recruiters and moderators who can support your project TechnicalChallenges

26. Language • Cultural norms • difficulty of dialogue, transparency • Local custom and practice • gender, clan/community, ethnicity • hierarchy • group dynamics • Bias • researcher’s bias, actual or perceived ProjectChallenges

27. Donor • strong point of view • Political parties and government(s) • hyper-sensitivity to criticism • NGO’s, local media • multiple users with diverse agendas • Society • few established norms for debate • introduce issues important to society, but not debated by elite(s) Audience(s)

28. Make key audiences your partners • political leadership, NGO’s, media • Observers • to protect against bias • to encourage the use of the data independently • Training • what are the limits of the tools ? • how can they be used ? Research as Training

29. Low cost + broad access • Online • Facebook in Egypt • SMS • election observation tool • dominant mobile phone presence • dynamic social network • Email • common use of ‘free mail’ • access to IM and telephony applications Emerging Tools

30. Lessons Learned

31. The truth hurts • do they want to know ? • Quality costs time & money • redundancy and direct int’l participation needs to be built into your project plan • 3. Scope & Scale • you will need to set a long baseline, use multiple methodologies and accommodate unusually large research objectives • 4. Reporting is teaching • role for media, NGO’s and clients Lessons for ‘Away’

32. Special communities need a special approach • balance of external and internal research team • Training has a benefit • improved confidence in results and the tool & a higher degree of ownership in the findings • Sample design • homogeneity of lifestyle over region or other cohort Lessons for ‘Home’

33. ChadRogers British Colonial Building, Third Floor Eight Wellington St. E., Toronto, Canada M5E1C5 direct 416-642-5000emailcrogers@navltd.com fax416-642-6435webwww.navltd.com