Climate Change and Transportation

1. Climate Change and Transportation -Alex Bigazzi January 28th, 2009

2. The earth is warming. • Beyond levels of historic global temperature cycles • Scientifically supported by many varied data sources

3. Human activities are changing the climate. • Through greenhouse gases, aerosols, soot, and deforestation/land use changes • Even the former president acknowledged this.

4. Climate change is real and bad and caused by greenhouse gases. • This is our starting point. • “Climate Change” not “Global Warming” because of various regional effects

5. Greenhouse Gases Methane = 23 CO2 Eq. N2O = 296 CO2 Eq. Source: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2006, USEPA #430-R-08-005

6. GHG Sources Fossil Fuel Combustion, Iron and Steel Production, Cement Manufacture, Municipal Solid Waste Combustion, Lime Manufacture, Ammonia Manufacture, Aluminum Production, Petrochemical Production, Titanium Dioxide Production, Landfills, Coal Mining, Manure Management, Wastewater Treatment… Source: Governor’s Advisory Group on Global Warming, Oregon Strategy for Greenhouse Gas Reduction, 2008

7. Energy Fuels Source: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2006, USEPA #430-R-08-005

8. Where they come from Source: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2006, USEPA #430-R-08-005

9. Where they go Reference: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2006, USEPA #430-R-08-005

10. Transportation’s GHG Reference: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2006, USEPA #430-R-08-005

11. We have a lot of cars… Source: 2007 Portland Metropolitan Region Transportation System Performance Report, Portland State University

12. …and we drive them a lot. Source: 2007 Portland Metropolitan Region Transportation System Performance Report, Portland State University

13. Especially during the peak periods. Source: 2007 Portland Metropolitan Region Transportation System Performance Report, Portland State University

14. We want power… Slide credit: Dr. Robert Bertini, Fuel for Thought

15. …and big cars. Source: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2006, USEPA #430-R-08-005

16. Which (partly) explains… Climate-Change Policy and CO2 Emissions from Passenger Vehicles, Congressional Budget Office, October 2008

17. Assessment

18. Main factors for passenger car emissions

19. Strategies

20. Car Fuel Economy Turnover Rate? * Estimate depends on carbon intensity of hydrogen and electricity sources Source: Bandivadekar et. al. (2008)

21. Raise gas prices? • Shown to: • Reduce VMT • Moderate Speeds • Reduce Car Sizes • But… • Increased CAFÉ standards will have a much bigger effect on fuel economy (CBO brief) • More research needed on elasticity of demand to gas prices Source: 2007 Portland Metropolitan Region Transportation System Performance Report, Portland State University

22. Fuels

23. Impacts of Climate Change • Operations • Evacuations • Flood closure • Airport delays • NW Passage? Increasing . . . • Infrastructure • Flooding • Erosion • Thermal deformation • Stability • Bridge clearance

24. Opportunities • New administration • Congressional activity on reducing GHG • New surface transportation act in 2009 • Copenhagen int’l meeting to renew Kyoto (Dec. 09) • Green is in (look at advertising) • Indirectly a nat’l security issue (energy indep.) • We need new research, policies, and designs (this means you!)

25. Resources • EPA – www.epa.gov/climatechange/ • TRB – http://tris.trb.org/climatechange/ • OR – http://www.oregon.gov/ENERGY/GBLWRM/docs/GWReport-FInal.pdf • Portland Metropolitan Region Transportation System Performance Report – ITS Lab www.its.pdx.edu Acknowledgments • Dr. Robert Bertini, PSU • Dr. William York and the Academically-Controlled Auxiliary Activities Committee, PSU • AAA application form: http://aaa.groups.pdx.edu/

26. Estimating CO2 I-5 MP 302.5 (1.4 mile section) ?