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Long-term changes in Mediterranean vegetation in Israel and California

Long-term changes in Mediterranean vegetation in Israel and California. Yohay Carmel Faculty of Agricultural Engineering The Technion -- Israel Institute of Technology. USDA Forest Service International Programs. A Cooperative Research:. The Israel Forest Authority (KKL).

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Long-term changes in Mediterranean vegetation in Israel and California

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  1. Long-term changes in Mediterranean vegetation in Israel and California Yohay Carmel Faculty of Agricultural Engineering The Technion -- Israel Institute of Technology

  2. USDA Forest Service International Programs A Cooperative Research: The Israel Forest Authority (KKL) Ronen Kadmon, Department of Ecology, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem Curtis Flather, Rocky Mountain Research Center, USDA Forest Service Denis Dean, Department of Forest Sciences, Colorado State University

  3. Adult oaks (Quercus calliprinos) in Mt. Meron

  4. Herbaceous vegetation in the front, recovering trees in the back, Mt. Meron

  5. Earlier stages of recovery following land abandonment: dwarf shrubs, tall shrubs, and low trees in Mt. Meron

  6. 30 years after abandonment of pastoral cultivation in Mt. Meron

  7. Mt. Meron 1945

  8. Mt. Meron 1964

  9. Mt. Meron 1992

  10. Herbaceous Vegetation Shrubs Trees Vegetation maps of Mt. Meron, Israel

  11. Past vegetation: Percentage cover of Trees, Shrubs, Herbaceous vegetation Disturbance Agents: Grazing Logging Fire Topography: Slope Aspect Elevation Factors that potentially affect current vegetation pattern Soil

  12. Map of the study area in Mt. Meron, showing the distinct plots of different grazing pressure, and the range of fire

  13. Change in Trees as a function of Grazing Pressure Change in tree cover ± SE

  14. Regression results for the linear models 1 NS - not significant * p<0.05 ** p<0.01 *** p<0.001

  15. Regression results forthe linear models 2 NS - not significant * p<0.05 ** p<0.01 *** p<0.001

  16. Weight of predictorsin affecting vegetation change in Mt. Meron

  17. Model input (1964 vegetation) Actual 1992 vegetation Predicted 1992 vegetation (Linear model)

  18. MODELS AND REALIZATIONS LINEAR MODEL LOGISTIC MODEL SAMPLE DATASET COMPLETE DATASET STOCHASTIC REALIZATION DETERMINISTIC REALIZATION WITH AUTOCOVARIATES NO AUTOCOVARIATES

  19. Stochastic Realization Deterministic Realization ? ? ! ?

  20. Stochastic realization Deterministic realization

  21. Actual and predictedproportions of 1992 vegetation

  22. Matching the actual map • on a cell by cell basis

  23. Scenarios for 2020 Grazing intensities do not change Grazing is excluded

  24. Mediterranean type ecosystems

  25. Guess if this photo was taken in Israel or in California

  26. Oak woodland, chaparral, and grasses, in Carmel Valley, California

  27. Precipitation patterns in California and Israel

  28. Precipitation match with Mt. Meron on a monthly basis 1. Cuyamaca mountains 2. Santa Ynez Mountains 4. Sequoia National Forest 5. Sierra Foothills Research Center 6. Hastings Natural History Reservation 8. South Cow Mountain Best match Worst match

  29. Hastings Nature Reserve, Carmel Valley, California

  30. A small part of 1939 photo Grassland Chaparral Trees

  31. Same area in 1956

  32. Same area in 1971

  33. Same area in 1995

  34. Vegetation maps of Hastings, California

  35. Herbaceous Vegetation Shrubs Trees Vegetation maps of Mt. Meron, Israel

  36. Change in tree cover in Meron and Hastings

  37. Weight of predictorsin affecting vegetation change

  38. Mediterranean vegetation change in long-term, landscape-scale studies Average annual change

  39. Why is there such a difference between vegetation dynamics in California and the Mediterranean basin? 1. Local ecological and anthropogenic conditions 2. Different soils 3. Different evolutionary history

  40. A transplant experiment is currently conducted, where oaks from both countries are grown together in both sites, in a controlled environment

  41. More information on the various topics discussed here can be found in: Carmel, Y. and Flather, C.H. 2004. Comparing landscape scale vegetation dynamics following recent disturbance in climatically similar sites in California and the Mediterranean basin.Landscape Ecology 19:573-590. Carmel, Y., Kadmon R. and Nirel, R. 2001. Spatio-temporal predictive models of Mediterranean vegetation dynamics. Ecological Applications, 11 (1):268-280.Carmel, Y. and Kadmon, R. 1999. Grazing, topography, and long term vegetation changes in a Mediterranean ecosystem. Plant Ecology, 145:239-250.Carmel, Y. and Kadmon, R. 1998. Computerized classification of Mediterranean vegetation using panchromatic aerial photographs. Journal of Vegetation Science, 9:445-454.Grunzweig, J.M., Carmel, Y., Riov, J. and Flather, C.H. Resource storage and adaptation to drought in oak seedlings: a comparative study with Californian and Mediterranean species. Submitted to Ecology.

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