Public Opinion The Media

1. Public Opinion & The Media LO6.3595 Political Environment of the Law Charles Cameron Visiting Professor of Law NYU Law School Professor of Politics and Public Affairs Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs Princeton University

2. Outline Introduction Understanding Public Opinion A Theory of the Media Media and Crisis Management

3. Introduction The Media Challenge

4. Communication and Public Opinion Business decisions are necessarily complex Technical details (versus �drama�) Pricing and cost/benefit analysis (versus �need and suffering�) Statistics (versus �victim�) Long-run (versus short-run) So are many public policy issues Increasing subway fares � easy to grasp Microsoft anti-trust? Health care finance? Environmental regulatory regimes?

5. Mass Publics and Political Information Most citizens have little interest in mastering these complexities But they will respond to what interests them, if presented in an accessible way Which means � Scandals, threats to the public, outrages, violent crime, conflict Who is listening? Stock holders � activists � political contributors � regulators � politicians -- motivated voters

6. Critical Role of the Media Few businesses, agencies, or NGOs can communicate their message to the general public directly Critical role of the media (as an institution) Often, the sole source of info for mass publics, and for many elites Critical in shaping the content of that info

7. Media as a Challenge for Management �How can we gain favorable coverage as part of an integrated strategy?� �How can we limit/respond to bad messages during crises?� Managers must be able to anticipate amount and type of coverage, and its effects on mass publics and elites

8. 2 Key Questions How does media coverage affect public opinion among mass publics and elites? What drives media coverage?

9. Understanding Public Opinion

10. What Americans Know:T-Shirt Version T-shirt version of what social scientists know about info levels in the mass public: THE MEAN IS LOW BUT THE VARIANCE IS HIGH Lots of �dumb-dumbs,� a few �mavens� For Illinois Power: the �mavens� are apt to include major stock holders, rate payer activists, politicians, regulators Why this pattern?

11. How to explain Low Mean/High Variance? Benefits vs. Costs of Information Acquisition For most Americans, political information has few benefits & is costly to acquire For a few Americans, political information has considerable benefit & is easy to acquire

12. Two Kinds of Benefits Instrumental benefits from political knowledge Knowledge for use Affective benefits from political knowledge Knowledge for fun or passion

13. Instrumental Benefits: Political Accountability Why learn if you can�t use the knowledge to get better government? For most Americans, what difference does political knowledge make? What consequences for policy of voting for/against a given congressman? Little (More on this in later weeks)

14. Instrumental Benefits: Informational Free Riding Why learn if you can free ride on others� information? What happens to ME ME ME if I don�t bother to learn anything about politics? In the US, almost nothing

15. Instrumental Benefits: Private Benefits Note difference between individuals and large firms/interest groups Big players have an incentive to learn Individuals have an incentive to learn about matters affecting their private decisions Alar in apples Utility rates

16. Affective Benefits:Politics as Entertainment For some people, politics is like sports These people � partisan enthusiasts � enjoy knowing a lot! (Here�s the high variance) Martin van Buren & the party system How does Political Structure encourage/discourage political enthusiasm? PR vs first past the post PR type parties more ideologically distinct Presidential vs prime minister systems

17. Costs: Cheap vs. Expensive Info is cheap if it comes to you, rather than you to it Esp., if it is packaged in cognitively easy chunks Ex: Endorsements Likeability heuristics and on-line processing Infotainment, esp with a personal connection Importance of media and elite cue-givers

18. Opinion Change: The Converse Model (Zaller) A simple micro-level model that relates individual political responses to 1) individual information levels, 2) information environments, and 3) political messages (media) Very simple: just algebra

19. Basic Parts of the Model Three parts: Probability of Exposure to a political message Probability of Opinion Change (conversion) GIVEN exposure to the message Together, these determine the Probability of Opinion Change

20. Probability of Exposure

21. Prob. of Conversion GIVEN Exposure to the Message

22. Probability of Conversion (Defn) Pr of Conversion = (Prob of Exposure) X (Prob of Conversion|Exposure) Just like: Prob of Getting Wet = Prob it Rains X the Prob of getting wet When it rains Some simulations

23. Prob. of Conversion:Baseline

24. Prob. of Conversion:View 2

25. Some Implications How will mass publics respond to media messages, political appeals & political information? Effects of media messages How to conduct campaigns, media campaigns, etc

26. Widening Exposure to a Message (View 1)

27. Widening Exposure(View 2)

28. Widening Exposure � Conclusions Wider, more intensive bombardment can have dramatic effects � BUT, mostly among the �dumbs-dumbs� Effects among the better informed are modest

29. More Effective Messages (View 1)

30. Better message(View 2)

31. Better message � Conclusion Crafting more convincing, more effective messages can have dramatic effects BUT mostly among the highly informed �maven� types The effects on the dumb-dumbs are likely to be small

32. Illinois Power Who listens to 60 Minutes? Mavens Which mavens are getting a bad message? Stockholders, rate payer activists, regulators, state legislators How can these people affect Illinois Power?

33. Why did 60 Minutes Mug Illinois Power? Anticipating & avoiding muggings What to do next

34. Understanding the Media

35. What is the media trying to do? Profit maximization criteria Revenue Side: Circulation or viewers => Advertising Revenue Circulation => Payments for publications Cost Side Story Identification or Leads Story Creation Production and Distribution

36. What does profit-maximization mean? Revenue Side Find stories that have big �impact� Find stories that draw the right kind of reader for advertisers Cost Side Obtain either �inexpensive leads� or �exclusive leads� Choose �big� themes with multiple stories Sensationalization can occur Looking for something that might not be there Create a story from somewhat suspicious facts Target stories readers find interesting/advertisers do not find offensive Snowball effect Copy other outlets Longevity effect Keep hammering away at same story

37. Snowball Effect: An Example

38. Reporter�s Problem Must have the �story� written before she investigates the �facts� Pitch to the editor and the team in weekly meetings Only �best stories� survive This means that the reporter is filling the holes in the story Unusual is usual Business press tends to pursue the �unusual� and portray it as either: All companies should be like this (Enron) All companies are this evil (Enron)

39. The Reporter�s Problem

40. Two views of the media Media as businesses Demand side Coverage and production of news is given primarily by audience interest Media as social institutions Supply side Coverage and production of news is determined primarily by societal significance

41. Theory of media coverage

42. Combined theory of media

43. A Framework for Strategy Evaluation

44. Generate list of alternatives Screen the alternatives Analyze the alternatives: use insights from 4Is to anticipate institutional arenas, relevant interests and information problems use issue life cycle to anticipate issue dynamics use theory of the media and checklists to anticipate specific problems from activists and the media evaluate alternatives from efficiency, rights, and fairness perspectives. Note: important is not only what you consider ethical, but what stakeholders consider ethical. Use the ethical analysis to anticipate problems in nonmarket environments and for strategy development Choose an alternative that is consistent with the firm�s principles. Come up with specific suggestions tor implement the strategy that address the problem areas identified in the analysis. Be creative and look for ways to integrate market and nonmarket strategies. A Framework for Strategy Evaluation - Details