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The Changing Dynamics of the Global Market for the Highly-skilled. Andrew Wyckoff OECD Advancing Knowledge and the Knowledge Economy National Academies, Washington, D.C. 10 January 2005. US mean score ranks in range 24 th to 28 th in 41 countries.
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The Changing Dynamics of the Global Market for the Highly-skilled Andrew Wyckoff OECD Advancing Knowledge and the Knowledge Economy National Academies, Washington, D.C. 10 January 2005
US mean score ranks in range 24th to 28th in 41 countries. PISA: Mean mathematics scores – overall (All) OECD (2004), Learning for tomorrow’s world: First results from PISA 2003, Table 2.5c, p.356.
Competitiveness Rankings Source: IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook, 2004 and World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report, 2003-04
How could the authors of “A Nation at Risk” have gotten it so wrong?
Foreign PhD Students % of total enrolment, 2001 Number by host country, 2001
% of 1998-01 Foreign S&E US Degree Recipients with “plans to stay” in the US Source: NSF, S&E indicators, 2004
Stock of Highly Skilled* Immigrants in OECD Countries * Age 15+, ISCED 5/6 Source: Dumont and LeMaitre, 2004
Changing Dynamics of the Market • 9/11 • EU & Japan • China & India • MNEs
Annual Percent Change of International Student Enrolment in US Higher-education Institutions Source: IIE (2004), “Open Doors Report,” http://opendoors.iienetwork.org/
EU Lisbon & Barcelona Goals • Lisbon 2000 • “The Union has today set itself a new strategic goal for the next decade:to become the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world capable of sustainable economic growth with more and better jobs and greater social cohesion. Barcelona 2002 [o]verall spending on R&D and innovation …should be increased with the aim of approaching 3% of GDP by 2010. Two-thirds of this new investment should come from the private sector.”
Additional Researchers Required to meet EC Barcelona 3% R&D Target
Japanese Foreign Workers w Special and/or Technical Skills Source: METI, 2003
Number of Chinese students enrolled in tertiary education in the United States, Japan and the EU, thousands
Doctoral Degrees Awarded in China Source: Weiguo and Zhaohui, 2004
Growth of R&D expenditure, annual average growth rate 1991-2001(based on national currencies in constant prices) Source: Schaaper, 2004
Gross Domestic Expenditure on R&D(2002, $Bill GDP PPPs) Source: OECD, MSTI, 2004/1
Patent applications to the SIPO, by residence of inventors Note: Data are by priority year and are provisional. Source: OECD, Patent Database, July 2003
USPTO Patents by Chinese Inventors By Priority Date Source: OECD, Patent Database, December 2004
Policy Implications: an Initial Mapping 1. National Systems of Innovation (NSI) • Short-term: must compete in this global market • Long-term: need to increase indigenous supply • Increased global competition will make it will be more difficult for young researchers to be recognised, publish and get appointments at top-institutions (D.Hicks)
Policy Implications: an Initial Mapping 2. Macroeconomic Effects • Demand , Supply , then Price • Return flows will diffuse and create pressure to adopt push best practices (Saxenian) • Need for more global coordination of economic policies and data (esp. MNEs & flows of highly skilled) to guide these policies.
Policy Implications: an Initial Mapping 3. Extending the Global K-Network • Need to reconfigure the global knowledge network, • Tap into the “transnational technical communities” • Pivotal role of the US • Coordinating role of the IOs.