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New England’s Maximum Achievable Energy Efficiency Potential

Northeast Energy Efficiency Partnerships, Inc. The Economically Achievable Energy Efficiency Potential in New England By: Susan Coakley - NEEP. New England’s Maximum Achievable Energy Efficiency Potential. Presented to MA Restructuring Roundtable November 17, 2004.

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New England’s Maximum Achievable Energy Efficiency Potential

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  1. Northeast Energy Efficiency Partnerships, Inc. The Economically Achievable Energy Efficiency Potential in New England By: Susan Coakley - NEEP New England’s Maximum AchievableEnergy Efficiency Potential Presented to MA Restructuring Roundtable November 17, 2004

  2. Overview • What is the Economically Achievable Energy Efficiency (EE) Potential? • How much is available in New England? • What are the major “reservoirs” of EE potential? • How can New England capture this EE potential? • What are the costs and benefits? • What are the environmental benefits? • What impact on power plant demand for natural gas? • Recommendations to New England policymakers.

  3. What is Economically AchievableEnergy Efficiency Potential? • The potential for maximum market penetration of energy efficient measures… • Cost-effective based on the Total Resource Cost test… • Adopted through a concerted, sustained campaign… • Using proven programs and market interventions… • Not bound by any budget constraints.

  4. How Much EE is Available in New England? 10-year analysis timeframe: 2004 to 2013 • Results: • By 2008: • Savings of 17,103 GWH - annual electricity needs of 2.4 million households, • 4,317 MW - 14 combined cycle gas units @ 300 MW • By 2013: • Savings of 34,375 GWH - annual electricity needs of CT and NH households • 8,383 MW 28 combined cycle gas units @ 300 MW

  5. Existing and New EE Strategies Can Offset ISO Forecasted Energy Requirements (GWH) and Beyond 150,000 ISO GWh Forecast (w/out DSM) 1.2% Avg. Annual Increase at 145,000 140,000 135,000 Addt'l EE Can Offset Growth 130,000 Actual Energy Requirement (2003) 125,000 GWh 120,000 115,000 Total Achievable Energy Savings Potential Total EE -1.38% Avg. Annual Reduction 110,000 Potential in 2013 Can 105,000 Reduce Energy Req. to 1993 Level 100,000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 How Much EE is Available in New England? 16,500 GWH _Savings

  6. What are the Major “Reservoirs” of Achievable EE Potential in 2013?#1: By Sector Residential Savings = 12,745 GWH C&I Savings = 21,630 GWH

  7. What are the Major “Reservoirs” of Achievable EE Potential in 2013?#2: By End Use Residential Savings C&I Savings

  8. What are the Major “Reservoirs” of Achievable EE Potential in 2013?#3: By Market Residential Savings C&I Savings

  9. Existing Strategies Will Capture Less Than20% of Achievable Potential Savings by 2013

  10. Energy Efficiency is 67% Cheaper Than Supply $0.120 Levelized Avoided Electric Supply Cost in New England (includes generation, T&D capacity and line losses) $0.100 $0.080 $/kWh $0.060 Levelized Total Resource Cost of Energy Efficiency $0.040 $0.020 $0.000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

  11. What are the Costs vs. Benefits of the Economically Achievable EE Potential? (Using Modified Total Resource Cost Test) 11-17-04

  12. How Much More Investment in EE Is Needed to Offset Load Growth in New England? • Current/pending policies can offset 50% of growth: • New England electric ratepayer funding for EE: • $200 million/year • $2 billion over next 10 years. • Building energy codes and proposed state standards: • $700 million over 10 years. • Additional investment to offset load growth: • Additional $2.6 billion needed from 2004-2013 (more than double current SBC funding levels).

  13. How Much Could EE Help Reduce Power Plant Emissions in New England?

  14. New England Governors’ Conference Climate Change Action Plan Goal: Stabilize CO2 Emission at 1990 Levels by 2010 • Focus on New EnglandStationary Combustion Sector (fuel burning in power plants, factories, homes and buildings). • Stationary Combustion CO2 Emissions Growth: • 1990 – 103 mm tons actual • 2000 – 116 mm tons actual • 2010 – 138 mm tons projected • 2010 – 114 mm tons projected with full EE potential EE can provide 68% of NEGC 2010 carbon reduction goal for stationary combustion

  15. 450,000,000 EIA 2004 Forecast of Natural Gas Demand Continue for Electricity Generation 400,000,000 Existing EE Programs 350,000,000 Building Energy 300,000,000 Codes Addt'l EE to Offset Electric Energy Growth Appliance 250,000,000 Standards Million Btus 200,000,000 150,000,000 Addt'l Savings Beyond Opport. Beyond Offsetting Energy Growth 100,000,000 50,000,000 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Cumulative Impact of Achievable Electric EE Potential on Reducing Natural Gas Demand for ElectricGeneration in New England

  16. Economically Achievable Energy Efficiency:Findings and Conclusions • Current EE policies over next 10 years would get less than 20% of EE potential. • EE is 67% cheaper than the cost of electric power supply and could save New England $23.7 billion (net benefits) by 2013. • EE can more than offset projected electric energy and peak demand growth, deferring the need for up to 8,383 MW. • EE is abundant in all customers sectors, end uses, and markets. • EE investments can meet up to 68% of the NEGC climate change goals for the Stationary Combustion sector by 2010. • EE investments can reduce projected New England power plan natural gas demand by 33% in 2008 or 68% by 2013.

  17. Recommendations to New England Policymakers • Increase funding for EE investments as a clean and cheap energy supply resource. • Integrate EE into regional system and distribution company planning and resource procurement. • Link energy planning with environmental and economic goals. • Use electric EE to relieve gas supply constraints and help mitigate energy price volatility.

  18. More Recommendations to New England Policymakers • Give high priority to building energy code updates and high levels of compliance. • Continue to adopt state appliance efficiency standards. • Support strong and timely adoption of federal appliance efficiency standards. • Adopt or expand EE procurement rules for state and municipal buildings. • Establish common, regional methods and assumptions for measuring EE savings in New England.

  19. Northeast Energy Efficiency Partnerships, Inc. www.neep.org 5 Militia Drive, Lexington MA  02421 ph: 781-860-9177 fax: 781-860-9178 scoakley@neep.org

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