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About Mobile Futures Heikki Hämmäinen HIIT Haukilampi May 19, 2005

About Mobile Futures Heikki Hämmäinen HIIT Haukilampi May 19, 2005. Visions of media convergence. Big Company Global company Single ecosystem E.g. Vodafone, MS. Big Box Single terminal Several channels Smart or dumb E.g. Linux/Java. Big Pipe Single channel Unified value nets

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About Mobile Futures Heikki Hämmäinen HIIT Haukilampi May 19, 2005

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  1. About Mobile FuturesHeikki HämmäinenHIIT HaukilampiMay 19, 2005

  2. Visions of media convergence • Big Company • Global company • Single ecosystem • E.g. Vodafone, MS • Big Box • Single terminal • Several channels • Smart or dumb • E.g. Linux/Java • Big Pipe • Single channel • Unified value nets • E.g. Internet • Big Pipe may happen as Internet evolution • Big Box may result from the operating system battle • Big Company may get control of Big Pipe and/or Big Box • Ecosystems grow and die slowly • Governments may interfere Source: P Longstaff, 2003

  3. Usage Goes Wireless • Wireless hotspots turning fixed networks into mobile • Handsets connecting to hotspots (e.g. WLAN, BT, UWB) • Wireless laptops replacing desktop PCs • Mobile handsets expanding to multimedia services • This year’s high-end handset becomes next year’s low-end • New consumption of pictures, video, music • New production of pictures and video • Internet becoming accessible via mobile handsets

  4. Adoption of New Handset FunctionsCase Finland Source: LEAD project, 2004

  5. Usage Goes Personal • Personal wireless laptop • Personal mobile handset • New personal usage • Interactive TV (traditional TV “group terminal” losing) • Location-based information • Networked person-to-person (games, chat, presence) • Micro-payments in the real world Personal profiles managed in the handset?

  6. How do I manage my world? WWW Browse My bookmarks My phonebook My landmarks Communicate Track

  7. Case JapanDaily Mobile Internet Usage Time • More than 50% of users use less than 5 min per day • No clear correlation • between time of day and content • between amount of usage and content Source: MoCoBe.com survey, 2003

  8. Case JapanDaily Mobile Internet Usage (%) by Location • Usage follows the duration of presence (except commute) • No clear correlation between usage location and content Source: MoCoBe.com survey, 2003

  9. Household spendingCommunication as % of household consumption(OECD average) 4% Content? 3% Internet 2% Mobile 1% 1970 1980 1990 2000 Source: OECD

  10. Complexity of Buying • GSM business model for person-to-person services has been stable and understandable to consumers • Market for mobile content is still fragmented technically and business-wise • Open issues • End-to-end harmonization of the service architecture • End-to-and harmonization of the value network • Harmonization of micro-payments (e.g. authentication)

  11. Consumer’s Confusion Service providers Local teleoperator CATV operator Terrestrial operator Satellite operator ISP Cellular operator Content operator Legend Core business Likely expansion Possible expansion Services Home telephone service Broadband Internet access Value-added Internet services Terrestrial TV broadcast Cable TV broadcast Satellite TV broadcast Cellular service Multimedia content

  12. Traditional Payment SystemsCase Finland Value(€)/ Transaction Nordea Internet bank (c. 300€, 4trs/month) 50 VISA credit card (45 €, 6trs) 5 Cash Mobile handset (0.3 €, 50trs) 0.5 15 30 Transactions/Month • Role of cash decreasing very slowly • Mass of micropayments to be optimized

  13. E-CommerceU.S. on-line payment market –merchants view • VISA has over 50% marketshare of all Internet payments (ref. ”Verified by VISA”) Source: Gartner Group, 2002

  14. E-Commerce vs. Digital ContentJapanese on-line market – wired vs. mobile in 2001 Mobile content market ¥110B Wired content market ¥32B Wired e-commerce market ¥706B Mobile e-commerce market ¥115B Mobile Internet 23% Wired Internet 77% Mobile content much bigger than wired content ! Source: ECOM, Natsuno, 2003

  15. Thanks! www.netlab.hut.fi/u/hammaine

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