1 / 40

Revision on the UK Economy

Revision on the UK Economy. AS and A2 Economics May 2009. Recession - causation. Global credit crisis Asset price deflation Rising food and oil prices Cuts in real disposable income Collapse of consumer and business sentiment De-globalisation Falling profits, investment Labour shedding

iram
Download Presentation

Revision on the UK Economy

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Revision on the UK Economy AS and A2 Economics May 2009

  2. Recession - causation • Global credit crisis • Asset price deflation • Rising food and oil prices • Cuts in real disposable income • Collapse of consumer and business sentiment • De-globalisation • Falling profits, investment • Labour shedding • Financial crisis has spread to the real economy

  3. Recession Fallout

  4. Recession Fallout – Key Points • Cyclical consequences • Unemployment • Rising budget deficit • Falling business investment • Inflationary pressures easing / wage cuts? • Possible semi-permanent effects • Rising structural unemployment • Other hysteresis effects including business failures • Changes to financial system – tougher regulation of banking and other financial services • Will the UK’s trend growth suffer? LRAS impact?

  5. Policy Responses

  6. Pulling every lever • Policy rates have moved to the floor (0.5%) • £75bn quantitative easing (March 2009) • 25% depreciation of sterling over last 12 months • Injection of capital into the banking system • Government borrowing of more than 12% of GDP (annual fiscal deficit > £175bn) • National debt that > 80% of GDP within 2 years

  7. Bank of England – From Independence to Impotence? • Nowhere to go on policy interest rates – liquidity trap reached? • Inflation target is being ignored for now (will there be a change?) • The key rate now is on government bonds - not the base rate • Government committed to HUGE borrowing £175bn in 2010 • Will the Bank buy as many bonds as the government needs? Or will the bank say enough is enough? • For most people the base rate of interest is an irrelevance • Look at the cost of unsecured credit • Even if borrowing costs are low, can you actually get a loan?

  8. Evaluation • Monetary and fiscal policy are now joined at the hip • Short term – appetite (demand) for bonds eases the problems of financing an eye-wateringly large fiscal deficit • Good fiscal stimuli are timely, targeted, and temporary • But there is no such thing as a free lunch • Fiscal policy will need to be tightened • There will be some crowding out of the private sector • We cannot ignore the risk of resurgent inflation in a recovery – whenever that comes • Weak sterling poses a major credit (solvency) risk for the UK government – even if we are not (quite) an Iceland

  9. For essential last minute revision on Economics, don’t forget to visit the Economics Blog everyday

More Related