21 st Century Energy and the British Energy Coast

1. 21st Century Energyand the British Energy Coast Dr Tim Fox CEng CEnvFIMechE FRSA Head of Energy and Environment Institution of Mechanical Engineers

2. Fully engaged in public debate

3. Talk overview • Towards the peak • Increasing demand • UK energy landscape and policy • British Energy Coast

4. More people • 21st Century growth • Increasing by 75 million/yr • Up 2.3 billion by 2050 • Peak at 9.5 billion in 2075 • Challenge of • meeting basic needs of food, water, shelter • underpinning economic growth and increased well-being through access to affordable and abundant energy • reducing environmental risks and avoiding resource depletion

5. More energy – IEA 2011 • Demand grows 40% by 2035 • 90% of increase in non-OECD, notably in Asia • Fossil fuel still dominates but with nuclear and renewables in mix

6. UK energy landscape • Stable demand profile for past three decades • UK Climate Change Act and European directives coming into force for emissions and renewables • Need to replace ageing plant and infrastructure • North Sea gas depleting (by 2020, 80% of gas demand will need to be met through imports) • Increasing global competition for limited primary energy resources, particularly oil and gas • New developments, prototypes and demonstrators

7. Supply and demand • UK primary energy sources • UK energy consumption • Oil: 45% • Gas: 32% • Electricity (nuclear, wind, hydro): 19% • Coal: 1.5% • Other renewables: 2.5% • Transport: 39% • Domestic: 30% • Industry: 18.5% • Services: 12.5% • Heat 49%, Electricity 20%, • Transport 31%

8. UK heat and electricity use 350 300 250 Heat 200 Heat & Electricity (GW) Electricity 150 100 50 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D Source: The future of heating, DECC and Imperial College Month (for the year 2010)

9. UK Energy policy Sustainability • EU 20 / 20 /20 targets • Climate Change Act 2008 • Increased renewables • Decarbonisation of electricity • Decarbonisation of other sectors • Increased use of electricity as a clean energy vector • Energy conservation • Energy efficiency • Distributed generation Economy • Open markets deliver competitive prices • Interconnections link markets • Avoid price uncertainty for consumers • Political intervention and regulation to protect consumers • Community and domestic stakeholder participation in ownership, production and trading • Asset optimisation Security of supply • Licence conditions provide requirements for supply • Invest in storage • T & D investment • Ensure sufficient peak capacity • Maintain margin with adequate reserves • Increase renewables to reduce reliance on imported gas and other fuels • Develop system flexibility and community level resilience • Adopt smart grids

10. UK demand for energy • Stable around 2000 TWh/yr (National Grid) • Change in mix low-carbon future • Electricity – 450 TWh/yr by 2030 (CCC) 500 TWh/yr by 2050 • Substantial portion still from gas for space heating and power generation (~27%, 2030)

11. Enablers - storage • Pumped hydro • Compressed-air • Power to gas • Flywheels • Thermo processes • Batteries • Stockpiling

12. Enablers - grids • UK investment £19bn by 2020 • SMART grids • European interconnections

13. British Energy Coast • Substantial energy heritage • Focus, legacy and drive from 1/3 UK’s civil nuclear industry • The aspiration • To berecognised as leading nuclear, energy, environment and related technology business cluster • Opportunity • Nuclear New Build programme (Moorside) • Plutonium disposition; fast-breeder engineering • Cleantech(solar, wind, tidal, biomass) • Energy storage technology and engineering • Dalton Nuclear Institute, National Skills Academy, National Nuclear Laboratory, Westlakes Science & Technology Park

14. Thank you www.imeche.org