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Dr Fulcieri Maltini Dr Jean-Roger Mercier November 2012

Learning from the energy t ransition in four OECD Countries Germany , Italy , Japan, Switzerland. Dr Fulcieri Maltini Dr Jean-Roger Mercier November 2012. Overview.

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Dr Fulcieri Maltini Dr Jean-Roger Mercier November 2012

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  1. Learning from the energy transition in four OECD Countries Germany, Italy, Japan, Switzerland Dr Fulcieri Maltini Dr Jean-Roger Mercier November 2012

  2. Overview • Germany, Italy, Japan and Switzerland are currentlyimplementing an energy transition away from nuclear power and givingpriority to energy conservation and renewables, • Motivations behind these transitions vary and so do their pace, costs and fundings, • This presentation tries to distilllessons from these transitions thatcanapply to Europe and France.

  3. Germany - background • Historically, a divided country after WW2 reuniting in 1990 and requiringhigh power supply for itsreunification and industrial development: 4,140 TWh/year in 1990 • Politically, a strongsurge of the Green party (« die Grünen ») thatmakes, from the onset, nuclear phasing-out as one of itskeytargets • A strong energy efficiency policy has allowed a 10% power demandreduction, withonly 3,715 TWh consumed in 2011

  4. Germany - Strategy • In 2000, the socialist-green coalition puts a moratorium on nuclear power in the country • The decisionisreversed by the MerkelGovernment in 2010, at a time when nuclear produces 11% of Germany’s primary energy • And in 2011, the politicaldecisioncomes to phase out nuclear entirelywithseveralpotential deadlines,

  5. Germany – the plan(s) • Energiewende (energy transition) becomes a householdname and the world looks at Germany for guidance and enlightment • March of 2011: 8 nuclear plants are closed down • Summer of 2011: the legal package adoptedprojects the end of nuclear generation by 2022 • Many challenges have been identified

  6. Germany – objectives for 2050 • GreenhouseGas (GHG) emissionreduction: 80 to 95% (ref. 1990) • Renewables in the overall energy balance 60% • Ditto in gross power production 80% • Primary energy production (ref 2008) - 50% • Electric power consumption (ditto) - 25%

  7. Germany 2050 – Renewables • Lion’sshare to wind 170 TWh (113 offshore) • Biomass and photovoltaics 40 TWh each • Hydro: stable at 24 TWh In all, 80% of domestic power production, and needingcreative network management to compensate for volatility Anotherhuge challenge: extending the transmission gridat a pace of 470 km/year vs 35 atpresent.

  8. Opportunities and euros • The decentralized management of the country opens up great local opportunies and several « cantons » are alreadygenerating more energy thanthey consume (« positive energy ») • DIW’sprognosis: up to 800 billion € to spend over the coming 50 years. Increases of consumer prices have begun and are confrontedwithcriticism and protests.

  9. Italy - Background • End of WW2: Italy relies almostexclusively on hydro (88% of power generation) • 1990: thermal power has taken over the lead (63%), with hydro down to 16% and electricty imports making up for the rest (12%) • After a briefattempt to develop nuclear, the Italian people, in a 1990 referendum followingChernobyl, rejectfurther nuclear power development.

  10. Italy – the historic referendum • Under the pressure of the French, the Berlusconi governmentembarks on a new referendum in 2011, hoping to reintroduce nuclear • Over 90% of the votersreject nuclear again and the Italiangovernment moves forward • Targets of 17% renewables by 2020, inferior to the European average, are set

  11. Italy – Local Power • After the referendum, municipalities and regions are encouraged to developtheirown power generation/conservation programs • By2012, over 400,000 local power generationunits of various dimensions wereoperationalacross the country and over 95% municipalities, large cities as well as small villages, wereequippedwith multiple sources of energy mix

  12. Italy – Renewablepresent • Growth in the number of municipalitiesequippedwithrenewable energy generationisspectacular: from 3,190 in 2008 to 7,986 in 2011, • As a result, Italycomes second in Europe for solar power generation (12,750 MW vs 24,700 for Germany) • Energy mixes are adapted to local resourceavailability (solar, wind, biomass, geothermal, hydro)

  13. Italy – the pionneer • Large solar thermal power generation plants are alsobeinginstalled and run: 30 MW in Sicily in operation, more planned in this range • Wind farms are multiplying and Italyisthirdproduced behind Germany and Spain • Biomass use ismaximizedwithvarioussubstrates and processes: e.g. fermentation of wine production by-products, biogas distribution in local naturalgas grids, biogas in vehicles, ….

  14. Italy – more good news • Energy efficiency and conservation are highlydeveloped • Smart grids and smart meters (over 30 million unitssold and installed) complement the approach • As of 2012, 23 municipalitieswereselling more energy thantheywereproducing • Energy storageisdiversified and is putting Italyat the forefront of thiscriticalelement of Energiewende.

  15. Italy – Towards 2020 - Objectives • Primary energy demand - 4% (reference 2010). • Stable power demand • Renewables 20% of final energy demand and 38% superior of gas’s • The required 180 billion € investment to beallocatedat 72% for renewables and remaining 28 % for conventionalsectors (extraction, oil & gas production and transportation, GNL regazeification and thermal power plant construction)

  16. Japan – Recovering from the trauma • The thirdlargest power consumer in the world, Japan started, in the late 40’s with a simple energy mix: coal 50%, hydro 33%. • In the early 70’s, nuclear comes into the picture and ishailed as a miracle source for an oil importer, • Nuclear share in power production grew from 4% in 1973 to 24% in 2009 in spite of activists’ protest, overheated after each nuclear accident (TMI, Chernobyl)

  17. The Fukushima turning point • The vastmajority of Japanese, however, werefollowing suit with the nuclear lobby, verywellorganized under the auspices of the powerfulNippon Keidanren • 54 nuclear power plants were in operation in early 2011, • And then Fukushima happened and, beyond the human/economicdrama, exposed the lack of preparation and the ineffectiveness of TepCo and the JapaneseGovernment

  18. Eighteenmonthslater… • The situation isyet to bestabilized in Fukushima and surroundings (e.g. sea pollution) • The Japanesegovernment, under the pressure of the street, had to revise and deeplymodifyits energy plans • All nuclear plants wereclosed and their production rapidlysubstitutedwith thermal plants

  19. Prospects • Japan will have difficulties meeting itscarbonemissionreductiontargets if the ban on nuclear isconfirmed • The new target (- 20% by 2030 vs the previous – 25% by 2020) isheavilycritized by local activists • Japan plans to spendnearly 500 b US$ on renewables in the comingtwodecades • No costestimate for Energiewende seems to have been produced/discussed

  20. Switzerland - background • After WW2, the country wasrelyingprimarily on hydro, thenattempted to introduce nuclear • The accident at the Lucens nuclear experimental power plant in 1969 killed the public sector program • In parallel, between 1969 and 1984, the privatesectorbuilt five nuclear power plants that are in operation and provide 3.2 of the 20 GW national power demand

  21. Switzerland after Fukushima • March 25, 2011, the Federalcouncilopts out of nuclear, programming the closing of the 5 existingplants between 2019 and 2034, possiblyearlier for Mühlenbergthat has similarfeatureswith Fukushima • The FederalGovernmentisactivelypreparing a national energy law to beadopted by Parliament in end of 2012 and subjected to referendum in 2014

  22. Key features of the Energiewende • Focus on energy efficiency, withtargets of demandreduction of 70 TWh and 20 TWh resp. for total energy and electricitydemandreduction by 2050 • Priority to energy conservation measures in houses and offices • Reliance on rapid take-off of a variety of renewables

  23. Noteworthy 2050 targets • Photovoltaics + 10 TWh • Wind + 4 TWh • Geothermal + 4.4 TWh • Wood biomass + 1.1 TWh • Biogas + 1.4 TWh • Hydro + 3.2 TWh

  24. Parallelprocesses • Three « popular initiatives » launched • Closing of all nuclear plants by 2023 • Cleantech: to accelerate energy efficiency and renewables development • Ecological fiscal reform • Several « cantons », opposed to nuclear, have set theirown bans (e.g. Geneva whichgets 87% of energy from renewables and imports the rest)

  25. Costing • The Cleantech initiative has been costed by the University of Lausanne • The losers wouldbeimporters (0.6 billion CHF over 2012-2030, power producers 3.1 and the FederalTreasury 2.1)… • In exchange for 21-26 b CHF increase in GDP, or 2% and the creation of 15,000 jobs

  26. What lessons for France and Europe? • France lives in the economiccrisis mode. The Fukushima shock has largely been forgotten and the nuclear lobby isstrong as ever • France is, however, increasinglyisolated in the refusal of the Energiewende • In the four countries studiedhere, the Energiewende is in place and central as well as local governments are marching. France’scentralizationisalso a handicap.

  27. France and Europe • Adding to the French delayis the inertia of a system thattook 11 years to transpose the European Directive 2001/42 on the environmental assessment on plans and programs in the energy sector • The only viable solution can come from Europe, which has the tools and mechanisms to help integratethese Energiewende into a stable and effective system. Will therebe the politicialwill?

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