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April 19, 2013

S OUTHERN N EVADA E CONOMY: R ESET. . . R EBUILD . . . R ECOVER. April 19, 2013. Prepared by:. R ESET. The ugliest chart, ever. This is NOT your father’s recession. Nevada Recovery Comparison of Last 11 Recessions (1948 – 2007) % Job Losses Compared to Peak Job Month.

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April 19, 2013

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  1. SOUTHERNNEVADAECONOMY: RESET. . . REBUILD . . . RECOVER April 19, 2013 Prepared by:

  2. RESET

  3. The ugliest chart, ever.This is NOT your father’s recession. Nevada Recovery Comparison of Last 11 Recessions (1948 – 2007) % Job Losses Compared to Peak Job Month Current Jobs Recession-NV Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Indexed by RCG.

  4. The “real” unemployment rate - beyond the official rate. Alternative Measures of the Nevada Unemployment Rate: 2008 - 2012 U6 = U3 + All Marginally Attached + Part-time Workers - 20.3% U5 = U3 + Discouraged + All Other Marginally Attached Workers-13.3 U4 = U3 + Discouraged Workers- 11.9% U3 = Official unemployment rate - 11.0% Note: Rates are at a 4-quarter moving-average basis. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  5. REBUILD Resort Industry

  6. The moderate return of visitor & job growth. Clark County Non-Farm Employment & Visitation Growth (%): 2003 - 2013 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Las Vegas Conventions & Visitors Authority.

  7. Las Vegas remains a strong player in global gaming resort market. But is it still “Mecca”? Clark County Gaming Revenue: 2003 – 2013 GGR Net Baccarat Source: Nevada Gaming Control Board.

  8. Leisure & Hosp.’s improving operating environment. Healthy increases in avg. daily room rates. Clark County Hotel Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR*): 2005 - 2013 * RevPAR = average daily room rate x occupancy rate. Source: Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority. Calculated by RCG.

  9. Consumer spending slowly returning. How sustainable? Clark County Taxable Sales (12-Mo. Moving Average): 2003 – 2013 Source: Nevada Department of Taxation.

  10. REBUILD Job Market

  11. Private jobs growing at a moderate pace, but government jobs continue to lag. Clark County Public & Private Employment Growth (#): 2003 - 2013 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  12. The Stair Climb Return RCG Clark County & US Job Index*: 2000 - 2013 Clark County February 2013 = 93.7 2012 Annual avg. = 92.2 2000 - 2012 avg. = 96.1 2000 - 2007 avg. = 98.7 2008 - 2012 avg. = 91.8 * Based on Clark County's employment-to-workforce ratio (Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation). Indexed to a baseline of 100 in December 1998.

  13. Diversified or Not? Southern NV’s Economy Employment Distribution by Industry Clark County U.S. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Analyzed by RCG.

  14. Diversified or Not?, cont’d: Location QuotientsSouthern NV’s Economy, Last 10 Years Mature sectors that are losing ground Mature, healthy sectors Sectors that need attention Potential up-and-coming sectors Note: The first value by each industry is the LQ for that industry; the second value is the number of employees in that industry in 2013. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Analyzed by RCG. 14

  15. S. Nevada has competitive but relatively low wages. Avg. weekly wage below the U.S. average. Clark County & US Average Weekly Wages – Adjusted in 2012 $ 14% 10% above Clark Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Calculated by RCG.

  16. REBUILD Real Estate

  17. Southern Nevada’s new housing market has stabilized & improved over the past 12 months. Median Home Prices*: 2003 - 2013 * All product types, including hi-rises. Sources: Home Builders Research; MLS.

  18. Commercial permitting values have finally hit a bottom & continues to stabilize. Clark County Annualized Commercial Permit Valuation: 2003 - 2013 12-Month Moving Totals 12-Month Total ending Feb/2013: $196.5 M Sources: Various local entities; Center For Business & Economic Research at UNLV.

  19. The Industrial market continues to bump along the bottom with stable but high vacancies. Industrial Vacancy & Asking Rents: 2007 - 2012 Sources: RCG Economics.

  20. The office market made some headway in 2012 & continues to stabilize with high vacancy. Spec Office Vacancy & Asking Rents: 2007 - 2012 Source: RCG Economics.

  21. The anchored retail market is the most improved, because of improving taxable retail sales. Anchored Retail Vacancy & Asking Rents: 2007 - 2012 Sources: RCG Economics.

  22. RECOVER

  23. Realism vs. Fantasy • Relentless Pragmatism & Creativity Are Key • Real Economic Development • Learning From Others • Making Necessary Investments • True Public-Private Partnerships • Focus On Our True Assets

  24. Southern Nevada’s MOST IMPORTANT Asset

  25. Everyone In This Room

  26. Questions

  27. Contact:John Restrepo702-967-3188jrestrepo@rcg1.comwww.rcg1.com Twitter: @rcgeconomics

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