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Baltic Nest Institute – Status and Progress

Baltic Nest Institute – Status and Progress. The Environmental standing of the Baltic Sea: from political proposal to practical projects - Copenhagen - 17 March 2008. Bo Riemann, NERI, AU.

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Baltic Nest Institute – Status and Progress

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  1. Baltic Nest Institute – Status and Progress The Environmental standing of the Baltic Sea: from political proposal to practical projects - Copenhagen - 17 March 2008 Bo Riemann, NERI, AU Baltic Nest Institute Department of Marine Ecology National Environmental Research Institute Aarhus University www.balticnest.org

  2. Baltic Nest Institute www.balticnest.org

  3. HELCOM Action Plan – What’s next? List of Content: • Research, monitoring, management and political decisions • NERI – responsibilities and committments • Baltic Nest Institute (BNI) – Status • BNI progress and missing links • Approaching a decision-support system for the Baltic Sea

  4. Seminar Copenhagen • - The Environmental standing of the Baltic Sea: from political proposal to practical project, • or (my words) • from practical project to political decision

  5. NERI Contribution • NERI is part of University of Aarhus. NERI undertakes scientific consultancy work, monitoring of nature and the environment as well as applied and strategic research. NERI’s task is to establish a scientific foundation for environmental policy decisions.

  6. Status for BNI-DK • Danish BNI - start 1. September 2007, includes 11 employees • BNI-DK is situated at NERI, Roskilde (dept. of Marin Ecology) but involves also: • NERI, dept. of Atmospheric environment • NERI, dept. for Freshwater Ecology • NERI, dept. for System Analyses • DTU Aqua, (former DFU) • DMI, Center for ocean og is • Funding from University of Aarhus for 4 years

  7. BNI inheritance from MARE Atmospheric emissions and load Cost minimization model Marine modeling NEST can be used freely with any computer with Internet access from http://WWW.MARE.SU.SE Drainage basin modeling Fishery management Marine and runoff data

  8. Atmosphere Pressures/ emissions Policy measures & costs Open Baltic Sea Drainage basins Coastal zone Ecosystem services and value Ecosystem effects Fish/fisheries component Net value of ecosystem changes The integrated BNI model

  9. Atmosphere Pressures/ emissions Policy measures & costs Open Baltic Sea Drainage basins Coastal zone Ecosystem services and value Ecosystem effects Fish/fisheries component Net value of ecosystem changes The integrated BNI model

  10. Atmospheric N-transport using The DEHM model The DanishEulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) is state-of-the-art atmospheric modelling and is applied in NOVANA, AMAP, and research projects

  11. Atmospheric N transport using The DEHM model • Calculations of monthly depositions of different N-fractions to 13 areas used in the BALTSEM model with a resolution of 50 km x 50 km (1991-2006) • The depositions will be available in the NEST system • Depositions from 10 different sources:

  12. Atmosphere Pressures/ emissions Policy measures & costs Open Baltic Sea Drainage basins Coastal zone Ecosystem services and value Ecosystem effects Fish/fisheries component Net value of ecosystem changes The integrated BNI model

  13. Drainage basin modelling • Improve existing model (CSIM), through a dynamic calculation of nutrient retention in surface water (wetlands, rivers and lakes).

  14. Modelling loads of water and nutrients • Detailed, dynamic process modelling of retention in surface water. • Models to calculate loss of nutrients with high resolution. • Combining detailed production data with a catalog of means to reduce losses of nutrients, inclusive costs • Scenarios: Status quo vs. Implementation of WFD requirements and climate changes

  15. Atmosphere Pressures/ emissions Policy measures & costs Open Baltic Sea Drainage basins Coastal zone Ecosystem services and value Ecosystem effects Fish/fisheries component Net value of ecosystem changes The integrated BNI model

  16. 13 sub-basins: Northern Kattegat, Central Kattegat, southern Kattegat,   Samsø Belt, Fehman Belt, Øresund, Arkona Basin, Bornholm Basin, Baltic Proper, Gulf of Riga, Gulf of Finland, Bothnian Sea, Bothnian bay. Coupling Physical and biogeochemical Process: 17 state variables (14 in Pelagic layer and 3 in sediment): nutrients (7), phytoplankton (3), zooplankton (1), detritus (3), oxygen, salinity and temperature Forcing functions: Temperature, wind, current velocities, solar radiation, nutrients and etc. Spatiotemporal dynamic: seasonal (monthly), vertical and horizontal distribution of species BALTSEM model struktur

  17. BALTSEM model structure (BALTSEM ) (Savchuk, 2007)

  18. Costal zone and open sea modelling • Costal dynamic modelling (Warnemünde) will be integrated with BALTSEM and BNI’s Marine model • Ensemble modelling is an integrated part of this • Danish Straits

  19. Atmosphere Pressures/ emissions Policy measures & costs Open Baltic Sea Drainage basins Coastal zone Ecosystem services and value Ecosystem effects Fish/fisheries component Net value of ecosystem changes The integrated BNI model

  20. Ad. cod Juv. cod Ad. herring Juv. herring Ad. sprat Juv. Sprat NEST existing fish model Fishery Seals Macrobenthos Mysids Mesozoopl. Meiobenthos Microzoopl. Bacteria Detritus Spring phyto. Other phyto.

  21. Further splitting of groups Fish Multistanza groups Fishery Seals Cod Age 2, etc Age 1 Age 0 Herring Eggs/larvae Age 2 etc.. Sprat Age 1 Age 2, etc... Age 0 Age 1 Eggs/larvae Age 0 Eggs/larvae Pseudocalanus Saduria Acartia Other... Mysids Temora Cladocerans Other... Meiobenthos Microzoopl. Bacteria Detritus Diatoms Dinoflagellates Cyanob. Other...

  22. Atmosphere Pressures/ emissions Policy measures & costs Open Baltic Sea Drainage basins Coastal zone Ecosystem services and value Ecosystem effects Fish/fisheries component Net value of ecosystem changes The integrated BNI model

  23. Toxicants • Toxicants is a threat to the enviroment of the Baltic Sea • Integration of atmospheric and marine models • Selection of important toxicants • Establisments of mass balances, impact, and risk analyses

  24. Cost Efficiency Modelling (Model dimensions) • 9 countries • 24 drainage basins • 7 marine areas • Bothnian Bay • Bothnian Sea • Baltic Proper • Gulf of Finland • Gulf of Riga • Danish Straits • Kattegat I1 I2 S1 C1 C2 S2 I4 I3

  25. Means to reduce N/P loads 9 means will be used: Establishing wetlands (N & P) Reduction of fertilizers (N) Area utilization (N) Limitations in domestic animals (N & P) Cows and pigs Waste water treatment (N & P) NOx reduction (N) Cost minimization

  26. Maintenance and opdating GIS data Objective: • improve and update the quality of existing GIS data in the NEST system • coordinate model interfaces with GIS data • Construct administrative GIS structures • Couple models and GIS into a dynamic solution • collect GIS data from The Baltic Sea Ecoregion • develop new areas for economic data and presentation of results in NEST model database

  27. What exact steps should be taken to aid the implementation? • Science-based support system • Update the databasis (1997-1993 – now) • Improve models (coast vs. open sea, dynamic modelling, Danish Straits) • Link models • Develop cost minimization models • Open source philosophy • Data, models and manuals available to the public

  28. Conclusions • The NEST philosophy will establish a science-based decision support system to improve the basis for political decisions • NEST will link ecological and economic models • Continued work in NEST will improve research, monitoring and management in the Baltic Sea Ecoregion • All NEST work is done with end-users

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