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The Academy of Armed Forces of GEN Milan Rastislav Štefánik

The Academy of Armed Forces of GEN Milan Rastislav Štefánik. Agent-Based Models in a Changing Environment Prof. Miroslav ŽÁK, Ph.D Jozef ULIAN, Ph.D. The Armed Forces Academy of GEN Milan Rastislav Štefánik in Liptovský Mikuláš SLOVAKIA. AGENT-BASED MODELS IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT.

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The Academy of Armed Forces of GEN Milan Rastislav Štefánik

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  1. The Academy of Armed Forces ofGEN Milan Rastislav Štefánik Agent-Based Models in a Changing Environment Prof. Miroslav ŽÁK, Ph.D Jozef ULIAN, Ph.D

  2. The Armed Forces AcademyofGEN Milan Rastislav Štefánik in Liptovský Mikuláš SLOVAKIA

  3. AGENT-BASED MODELS IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT • Proposed Methodolody: • 3 Level Structure of Adaptive Agent-Based Model at • Tactical Level, • Agents of Contingency Planning Team on the spot, • A Conversion of Information on Stability Threats to • Subjective Probability as part of D-P-N, • A Selection of Threat (Risks) to Stability.

  4. Proposed Formal Structure at a SO STABILITY OPERATION CONTINGENCY PLANNING SECTION 1st level CPC1 CPC2 CPCk 2nd level OT5 CPT5 CPT1 CPT3 OT3 OT1 3rd level CPT2 CPTm OTm CPT4 OT4 OT2

  5. m 2 3 1 probability of instability probability of instability reliability of nformation reliability of nformation Agents of CPT of Proposed Model

  6. Formula for Criterion of CPT Agent Information Agents of CPT: M = {a1, a2, ... , am} – set of sources of information, N = {b1, b2, ... , bn} – a set of possible threats (risks), R = {c1, c2, ... , a r} – a set of possible stability measures (stages). As criterion of reasons of instability we can choose probability of its creation based on possible threat identified by agents. We can mark such criterion by the formula: f j(pi,j) = pi,j . zi , for j = 1, ... , N where, pi,j – probability of creation of instability identified by an agent and as a consequence of its reason j, zi - reliability (weight) of source of information i.

  7. Conversion of verbal expressions to numerical values

  8. Matrix of Subjective Probability fj(pi,j) = pi,j . zi ,for j = 1, ... , N

  9. Criterion of Possible Threats Suppose that risks are of different significance (weight). After that, a value of criterion is determined by the formula: Fj = fj . vj

  10. The Probality of Stability • To judge a stability of a stage or system we can use an • aspiration level method, • To determine a certain level of acceptable risk -aspire • level, • If some of values Fj overstep the level, stability of the • system is threatened, necessary to take measures to fix • the stage.

  11. CONCLUSION It is the one of possible approaches. It based on a conversion of verbal (qualitative) expressions to quantitive ones. It is expected it will improve realism of simulation systems. Added value of the article is proposed the multi-agent model of CPT which processes information on threat in stability operation.

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