OUR CLIMATE IS CHANGING!

1. lbhagen@roanokeslant.org OUR CLIMATE IS CHANGING! OUR CLIMATE HAS ALWAYS BEEN CHANGING!

2. How I became aMan-Made Global WarmingAnthropogenic (AGW) SkepticAndWhy I Still AmAnd Why You Should Be Too-Lars HagenRetired EngineerLBHagen@RoanokeSlant.orgwww.RoanokeSlant.org(I Have Never Worked For An Energy Company)(except: 60 years ago I pumped gas at a Gulf station)

3. Skeptics Are Not:- Deniers per A. Gore Flat-Earthers per B. Obama Racists per J. Biden Traitors per R.F.Kennedy Jr An AGW-Skeptic IsAn honorable, responsible and knowledgeable person who questions the validity or authenticity of something purported to be factual

4. Let’s Put AGW Global Warming And Climate Change Into Context

5. AGW & “1984 DoubleSpeak” Isn’t it interesting that the AGW Proponents with the media’s able assistance have caused the words “Global Warming” And “Climate Change” To Mean: Man-caused bad things due to CO2 from burning fossil fuels As if there’s never been The NATURAL kindThe ONLY kind “so far”

6. How I Became CuriousAbout The AGW Claims During a cruise to Alaska in July 2007 I visited the capitol, Juneau, and the nearby Mendenhall Glacier That’s How It All Started For Me!- The Data Disclaimer The “Data” contained herein is a very small subset of the massive amount of material available on this general subject

8. The Interior Dept Guide presented a graphic of Mendenhall’s recent 250 year history and explained that the significant retreat indicated was a result of AGW “Man-Caused Global Warming” The Government-Guide’s Hypothesis

10. Cause vs. Effect Mismatch? • The receptive audience all nodded their heads in knowing approval of the AGW claim (Gore-Mann 2006 Inconvenient Truth) • However, I found the graphic and the data to be at odds with the hypothesis. • Most of the glacier-face retreat started circa 1750 and had slowed down circa 1950.

11. Mendenhall’s Retreat2-1/2 miles in 200 years

12. Mona Loa CO2(CO2 From all Sources)

14. Some Additional Examples Of Glacial Major Retreat Starting in 1750 With No CO2 change!(Selections based on Glaciers in the Northern Hemisphere that I have seen and that are near inhabited areas since circa 1750) • Nisqually – Mt. Rainer WA • Storbreen SW-Norway • Nigardsbreen SW-Norway

15. The Retreat Of NisquallyMt. Rainer WA

20. What Happened 1750 to 1950? • 1750 Was the approximate end ofthe climate of “The Little Ice Age” • The Little Ice Age ended because of the onset of NATURAL Global Warming • The NATURAL Global Warming that ended the Little Ice Age and subsequent 200 years of melting and retreat was clearlyNOT caused by CO2 (man-made or otherwise)

21. Greenhouse Effect In AtmosphereSun Heat In vs. Earth Heat OutA Critical Complex Balance

22. What If NO Greenhouse Gases?(No Life As We Know It)

23. Total CO2 In Atmosphere(Significant Water Vapor H2O not included) (CO2 = 0.035 % = 350 ppm)

24. CO2 Make Plant Grow - Photosynthesis

25. “A” Carbon-Isotope Estimate Of The Sources Of Atmospheric CO2 (11% Man-Made)

26. “An” Estimate Of The Greenhouse ContributorsLiterature Data Range For: CO2: 9% to 26%  3X range Water Vapor: 36% to 72%  2x range

27. “An” Estimate Of Man-kinds AGW-CO2 Contribution To Greenhouse Effect • CO2 Man-made in Air: 11% • CO2 Greenhouse Effect: 9% to 26% Therefore “a simplistic” Estimate of Man-kinds AGW contribution to the Greenhouse Effect: • 11% of 26% => Approx. 3%11% of 9% => Approx. 1% • How does this Estimate of 1%  3% affect Global Warming and Climate Change? • What about the other 97% to 99% contributors?

28. My Curiosity Begot Skepticism Based on the Glacial vs. CO2 data I Became Skeptical aboutThe Two Key Claims that formed The 2-Legs of the Gore-Mann “Inconvenient Truth” Claims? 1. CO2 is main cause of Global Warming 2. “Models” predicted the Hockey Stick

29. Gore-Mann Claim “Inconvenient Truth”1. When CO2 is High – Temp is High2. When CO2 is Low – Temp is Low3. Therefore: CO2 Drives Temp !- • (Note the half-million year time scale)

30. Changing From Half-million year to 50K year time scale reveals a very different view

31. A Larger-Scale Of This Graphic Shows:Temperature Changes Preceded CO2 Changes By Hundreds Of Years!

32. Cause And Effect Correlation/Tracking Doesn’t Prove Causation (Chapter 1 of every statistics text) Also IF Temperature Changes Preceded The CO2 Changes By Hundreds Of Years THEN CO2 Was NOT The Cause Of The Temperature Changes Shown In “The Inconvenient Truth” And That Claim Is Falsified

33. The Gore-Mann Model Hockey Stick(The Sum of All Fears)(Famine & Plague & Pestilence & Death)

35. The “Two False Legs” of the Gore-Mann “Inconvenient Truth” Claims-- 1. CO2 is main cause of Global Warming: Historically Falsified - 2. “Models” predicted the Hockey Stick: There is NO Hockey Stick Current Models are Unverified and Massively Incorrect & Divergent

36. NASA Data: +0.8 deg-C in 130 yrsDoes +0.8 deg in 130 years look like a crisis compared to earth’s historical natural variations?

37. NASA Data: No Significant ChangeIn Past 17 Years (No Hockey Stick)(A lot of months were warm & a lot were cool)

38. 19 Disparate & Divergent Models vs. Reality

39. Were The Last Few Summers Record Hot? Back to the 30s Déjà Vu – Again(Note the natural yearly variability Warm & Cool)

40. How Are The Polar Bears?Plus 1250 Bears in 20 yearsApparently bears do it in the woods and on the ice too

41. - Note the Natural Yearly Variability No Tracking Against Increasing CO2

42. The Seas Are RisingAnd have been -- well before AGW-CO2Many shorelines are sinking something about Plate Tectonics

43. What About Severe Weather Events? • Contrary to the “News”: Our Severe Weather Events are not new or unique and there is no evidence they are caused by AGW-CO2 and History Belies the hypothesis that they are! • “In last 100 yrs US population has tripled 100 million in 1910 to 300 million in 2010 We are now a “Target Rich Environment”! With 24-7 Hyper-TV-Coverage!

44. Let’s Put Some Record Severe Weather Events in Perspective & Context With AGW-CO2

45. 1900 Hurricane Galveston Tx -- 8,000 KilledPopulation: 1900 = 38,000 now = 58,000No Man-Made AGW CO2!

46. The Great Tri-State Tornado of 1925No Man-Made AGW CO2! • The Great Tri-State Tornado of Wednesday, March 18, 1925, is the deadliest tornado in U.S. history. Inflicting 695 fatalities, the tornado killed more than twice as many as the second deadliest, the 1840 Great Natchez Tornado.The continuous 219 mile track left by the tornado was the longest ever recorded in the world as it crossed from southeastern Missouri, through southern Illinois, then into southwestern Indiana.It is recognized by most experts as an F5 tornado, the maximum damage rating issued on the Fujita scale

47. The Mississippi River Flood of May 1927No Man-Made AGW CO2! Most destructive river flood in the history of the U.S.; 500 killed; 600,000 homeless-The sheer landmass involved in this flood makes it incredibly noteworthy. Across Illinois, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi and Louisiana, some 16 million acres of land (26,000 square miles) were inundated with water from the mighty Mississippi.- At Vicksburg, Mississippi, May 1927 the river was 80 miles wide.

48. The Great Blizzard of 1888No Man-Made AGW CO2! • One of the most severe recorded blizzards in the history of the United States of America. • More than400 people died from the storm and the ensuing cold, including 200 in NYCity • Snowfalls of 20–60 inches fell in parts of New Jersey, NY, Mass., and Conn, • Sustained winds of more than 45 MPH produced Snowdrifts in excess of 50 feet. • Railroads were shut down

49. 5 Record US Weather Events with“NO” Man-Made AGW-CO2

50. Record Wild Fires 1825 – 1918No AGW-CO2 • The Miramichi Fire, 1825, was one of the worst forest fires in North American history. More than 3 million acres had burned and at least 160 people killed. • Great Peshtigo Fire, Oct 1871, a firestorm that ravaged the Wisconsin countryside, leaving more than 1,500 dead, the most fatalities by fire in U.S. history. • The Great Hinckley Fire of 1894 ravaged more than 200,000 acres and claimed at least 418 lives — one of the deadliest wildfires in U.S. history.  • The Great Fire of 1910, believed to be the largest single fire in recorded U.S. history. It burned more than 3 million acres in Idaho, Montana and Washington, roughly the size of Connecticut. There were 87 fatalities from the fire and 78 of those were firefighters. • The Cloquet Fire of 1918, claimed nearly 500 lives in a single day. 38 communities had been razed to the ground.