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The Global Outlook for the Supply and Demand for Grains

The Global Outlook for the Supply and Demand for Grains. Presented at 12 th Annual South African Agricultural Outlook Conference Pretoria, South Africa September 4, 2012 by Jerry Norton Chairman Grains Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees World Agricultural Outlook Board

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The Global Outlook for the Supply and Demand for Grains

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  1. The Global Outlook for the Supply and Demand for Grains Presented at 12th Annual South African Agricultural Outlook Conference Pretoria, South Africa September 4, 2012 by Jerry Norton Chairman Grains Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees World Agricultural Outlook Board U.S. Department of Agriculture

  2. USDA’s Monthly WASDE Report 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  3. U.S. Wheat and Feed Grains Balance Sheets 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  4. Global Wheat Balance Sheet 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  5. Global Coarse Grains Balance Sheet 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  6. Global Grain Situation & Outlook 2012/13 • U.S. corn supply and demand • Global corn supply and demand • U.S. wheat supply and demand • Global wheat supply and demand • Global grain demand and U.S. ethanol 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  7. Corn Situation & Outlook 2012/13 • U.S. corn supply and demand outlook • Early planting and large acreage • Devastating June and July drought and heat • Sharply lower yields and production • Tight supplies, record prices, and reduced usage • Global corn supply and demand outlook • World corn exports • Rising foreign corn consumption • Rising foreign area and yields • World production falling below consumption 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  8. U.S. Corn Belt Planting Progress Note: Central Corn Belt 5-state region including Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, and Ohio. Source: USDA-NASS, Crop Progress, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  9. U.S. Corn Planted Area Source: USDA-NASS, Crop Production, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  10. Early June U.S. Corn Production Outlook Source: Based on projections from the June 12, 2012, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  11. U.S. Corn Production 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  12. Developing Drought in June and July May 29, 2012 June 26, 2012 August 7, 2012 July 17, 2012 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  13. U.S. Drought Monitor 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  14. Number of Days => 100 degrees F,Jun. 1 – Aug. 4, 2012 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  15. U.S. Corn Areas Experiencing Drought 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  16. U.S. Corn Yields Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, June 12, July 11, and August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  17. Early AugustU.S. Corn Production Outlook Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  18. U.S. Corn Ending Stocks and Stocks-to-Use Source: Projections for 2011/12 and 2012/13 are from the August 10, 2012, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  19. U.S. Farm Prices for Corn Source: Projections for 2011/12 and 2012/13 are from the August 10, 2012, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  20. U.S. Corn Total Use Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  21. U.S. Corn Use for Ethanol Production Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  22. Renewable Fuel Standard Source: Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  23. Weekly Ethanol Production Source: DOE-Energy Information Administration, Weekly Petroleum Status Report. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  24. Ethanol and Gasoline Prices Reformulate Gasoline Blend Stock (RBOB) $.40 8/21/12 Ethanol Note: Ethanol prices based on CBOT nearby futures. RBOB (Reformulated Gasoline Blend Stock) based on NYME nearby futures. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  25. U.S. Corn Feed & Residual Disappearance Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  26. U.S. Corn Production and Feed & Residual Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  27. U.S. Corn Exports Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  28. World Corn Exports Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  29. World Corn Consumption Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  30. Rest-of-world Corn Harvested Area and Yield Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  31. Rest-of-world Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  32. Selected Northern Hemisphere Corn Producers Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  33. June Dryness across Southern Europe 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  34. July Heat across South Eastern Europe 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  35. June Dryness in Ukraine and Southern Russia DROUGHT DROUGHT Spring dryness turned to early-summer drought in Ukraine, while drought persisted in central Russia 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  36. July Heat in Ukraine and Southern Russia 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  37. Selected Southern Hemisphere Corn Producers Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  38. World Corn Production & Consumption Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  39. World Corn Ending Stocks Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  40. World Corn Stocks Relative to Use Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  41. Wheat Situation & Outlook 2012/13 • U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook • Rebound in acreage • Record yields • Larger supplies and higher usage • Prices rise with corn • Global wheat supply and demand outlook • World production down • Weather reduced crops in EU-27 and FSU-12 • 2008/09 and 2009/10 production supports stocks • World stocks well above levels in 2007/08 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  42. U.S. Wheat Planted Area Source: USDA-NASS, Crop Production, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  43. U.S. Winter Wheat Production 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  44. U.S. Spring Wheat Production 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  45. Wheat Largely Unaffected by Developing Drought May 29, 2012 June 26, 2012 August 7, 2012 July 17, 2012 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  46. U.S. Wheat Yields Source: USDA-NASS, Crop Production, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  47. U.S. Wheat Production Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  48. U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks and Stocks-to-Use Source: Projections for 2012/13 from the August 10, 2012, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  49. U.S. Farm Prices for Wheat Source: Projection for 2012/13 from the August 10, 2012, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

  50. U.S. Wheat Total Use Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference

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